The trend line adjustment could be right, but wouldn’t it be better to have theory of why and how different polling organizations were biased such that the adjustment could be predicted rather than inferred? I think (and certainly hope) the get-out-the-vote biases will be the big surprising effect, based on what seems to be happening in NC.
From: Friam [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly Sent: Saturday, November 05, 2016 3:37 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight Nate's reaction to this: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794994593574113282 Must have hit a nerve. Frank Wimberly Phone (505) 670-9918 On Nov 5, 2016 3:33 PM, "Marcus Daniels" <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
