It's interesting to think about verification, validation, and optimization. But most of that is premature if the _model_ is the cause of the behavior we want to avoid. E.g.
Has democracy become a threat to the planet? http://www.irishtimes.com/culture/has-democracy-become-a-threat-to-the-planet-1.2853289 Sure, if the electoral vote boils down to a popular vote count in one or more states, then things like voter access/fraud/suppression and tampering become important. But if, even assuming zero popular vote error, voting leads to an unintentionally self-destructive outcome, then the model should be fixed regardless of the model's implementation. The "mazel tov cocktail" (http://crooksandliars.com/2016/11/trump-surrogate-calls-molotov-cocktail) aspect of voting for Trump is quite clear, to me. If it were clear to everyone that a vote for Trump is a vote for annihilation, and the majority of people vote to kill themselves, then I'm all for it. But Trump supporters don't express that. They express the idea that Trump would improve things (and not blow us all to hell). That means that Trump voters don't _intend_ the bad outcome that most rational people expect, were he elected. This means there's a flaw in the model, regardless of any VV&A problems. On 11/07/2016 11:42 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I'm more worried about data loss (data corruption of memory sticks, software bugs in scanning votes), or voter suppression. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2016/11/we_looked_at_130_million_ballots_from_the_2012_election_and_found_zero_fraud.html <http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2016/11/we_looked_at_130_million_ballots_from_the_2012_election_and_found_zero_fraud.html> We Looked at 130 Million Ballots From the 2012 Election and Found Practically Zero Potential Fraud <http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2016/11/we_looked_at_130_million_ballots_from_the_2012_election_and_found_zero_fraud.html> www.slate.com In the months leading up to Tuesday’s vote, Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted that there will be rampant voter fraud on Election Day, stoking fears ... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *From:* Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of cody dooderson <[email protected]> *Sent:* Monday, November 7, 2016 11:29:00 AM *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton | FiveThirtyEight It might not be too late to start the free edX course on voting fraud. https://www.edx.org/course/us-voting-access-fraud-davidsonx-davnowxvoting .
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