Ha! I spend all my time arguing for the foxes and against the hedgehogs. And you've installed yet another trojan horse into my brain by linking to this article (and the oh so attractive book "Range").
"They took from each argument and integrated apparently contradictory worldviews. ... Foxes, meanwhile, 'draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and contradiction,' Tetlock wrote. ... The best forecasters, by contrast, view their own ideas as hypotheses in need of testing. If they make a bet and lose, they embrace the logic of a loss just as they would the reinforcement of a win." I can't help but feel you're waiting to pop out of the horse and hit me with something that falsifies my faith in the foxes. On 5/8/19 11:26 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > Glen writes: > > "Even *if* we admit that the accumulation of biological artifacts (like > shorter telomeres) "tells the story of our lives", there are some of us who > don't understand, reflect on, or realize that story and some who do. My > headaches have helped me be more episodic, I think. Maybe you need a good > concussion or something to help you doff that narrative." > > https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/ > > I like the observation how such experts are able to explain away any > violation of their predictions with `minor' changes to their model. The > hedgehogs just have too much invested in their narrative to make accurate > predictions. -- ☣ uǝlƃ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
