For you, Pieter: https://twitter.com/i/status/1211631520760221696
On Mon, Jan 6, 2020 at 11:21 PM Pieter Steenekamp < [email protected]> wrote: > I'd like to read the paper, but it's pay-walled so I realise my comments > are on very thin ice. But I do accept that since the mini ice age the > global temperatures have been rising and CO2 levels caused by human > activities have also been rising and also contribute to the increase in > temperatures. So I'm happy to accept the findings of a paper that claims to > detect the fingerprints of externally driven climate change. On the other > hand, looking at historical global temperatures (much longer than since the > end of the mini ice age), I don't think there are solid arguments that only > human actions cause climate change. Earth has gone through "hot house" > periods and "snowball" periods with no humans burning fossil fuels. A mere > thousand years ago the Vikings lived in Greenland and it's too cold there > now for the lifestyle they had. > > The million dollar question is how much? To what extent does CO2 > contributes to global warming. The IPCC published a figure of between 1.5 > and 4.5 for the "climate sensitivity". This is the increase in global > temperature for each doubling of CO2 levels. If it is close to 1,5, we > don't have anything to worry about, if it's close to 4.5 then we should > stop burning fossil fuels now. The best empirical evidence I could find for > the value of climate sensititvity is from the paper by Lewis and Curry > https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0667.1. and they find > it to be closer to 1.5. > > My conclusion is, yes, burning fossil fuels does increase global > temperatures and I support the efforts of the likes of Bill Gates doing his > utmost to find an "energy miracle" to provide abundant clean energy > sources. But personally I'm not ready to start panicking about climate > change. I'd rather support the copenhagenconsensus.com > <https://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/> approach. I quote "The Copenhagen > Consensus Center is a think tank that researches the smartest solutions for > the world's biggest problems, advising policy-makers and philanthropists > how to spend their money most effectively." By all means, include climate > change as a risk, it undoubtedly is , but IMO it's wise to keep a balance > about other existential risks too, and do proper cost and benefits > analyses for different risks and actions. > > Pieter Steenekamp > Mossel Bay, South Africa > > > On Tue, 7 Jan 2020 at 06:56, Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> wrote: > >> For the first time, scientists have detected the “fingerprint” of >> human-induced climate change on daily weather patterns at the global scale. >> If verified by subsequent work, the findings, published Thursday in >> Nature Climate Change <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0666-7>, >> would upend the long-established narrative that daily weather is distinct >> from long-term climate change. >> >> The study’s results also imply that research aimed at assessing the human >> role in contributing to extreme weather events such as heat waves and >> floods may be underestimating the contribution. >> >> -- >> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. >> Center for Emergent Diplomacy >> emergentdiplomacy.org >> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA >> [email protected] <[email protected]> >> mobile: (303) 859-5609 >> skype: merle.lelfkoff2 >> twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >> > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > -- Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy emergentdiplomacy.org Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA [email protected] <[email protected]> mobile: (303) 859-5609 skype: merle.lelfkoff2 twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
