Winter? What's that? (uttered from 2000 meters elevation in the Andes, 3 miles from the equator)
On Tue, Jan 21, 2020 at 2:28 PM doug carmichael <[email protected]> wrote: > the problem with the small plot of land approach > > 1. what to do in the winter? > 2. given the number Of people who will try it, what about the supplier > seeds? Are there enough? > > doug > > On Jan 21, 2020, at 11:20 AM, Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > Thank you, Jochen. Excellent. Pieter: We can't predict what will happen > or when or how fast. We only have probability analysis. But it's > happening now. The future is here. > > My advice when I give talks on climate emergency is make sure you have a > small piece of empty land, fix the topsoil, learn how to grow food, learn > how to store food, meditate, and try to enjoy an altered planet. > > On Tue, Jan 21, 2020 at 1:23 AM Pieter Steenekamp < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> Jochen, >> >> How confident are you about the predictions the climate scientists make? >> >> When I delve into the details of the IPCC reports I find that there are >> significant uncertainties. But when popular media report the facts I get >> the impression that "the science is settled" . Sure, I agree that there are >> aspects of the science that I would argue "is settled", but there are very >> crucial aspects with significant uncertainties. For example, the latest >> available figures from the IPCC reports give the climate sensitivity as >> within the range of 1.5 to 4.5 (that is the expected increase in global >> temperatures per doubling of CO2. This is according to the >> models. Empirical data studies show it to be close to the lower end. If >> this is true, then the IPCC figures are correct and we don't have to be >> concerned about CO2 causing serious harm. >> >> Is it good enough to say that because CO2 causes the temperature to >> increase, the temperature has increased the last 100 years or so, the CO2 >> is increasing because of humans burning fossil fuels, therefore if we don't >> stop burning fossil fuels we are going to have huge disasters? Is it not >> good practice to ask how much and what other factors contribute? >> >> By the way, I also don't have a high opinion of Trump. >> >> Pieter >> >> On Tue, 21 Jan 2020 at 01:21, Jochen Fromm <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> 10 years ago we had 10 degrees below zero in Berlin and several days of >>> snow. This winter we had not a single day of snow. Not a single one. The >>> arctic is melting, Australia and California are burning like never before >>> and Brasil is destroying the last pieces of its precious rain forest. >>> >>> And the worst thing is that it will be every year like this one, only >>> worse. Billions of people are burning in a few decades the fossil fuels >>> produced over millions of years. You don't need to be an expert to see that >>> this really can not be reversed in a few months. >>> >>> I could even imagine that we burn so much fossil fuels that there will >>> be regions where we have a lack of Oxygen. Earth was like this many million >>> years ago. >>> >>> And the most powerful country of the world has a president who ignores >>> all of it and considers himself a very stable genius. Sean Hannity gets 36 >>> Million Dollar (!) a year from Fox News to praise him. Isn't it depressing? >>> >>> -Jochen >>> >>> >>> >>> -------- Original message -------- >>> From: Pieter Steenekamp <[email protected]> >>> Date: 1/20/20 22:59 (GMT+01:00) >>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >>> [email protected]> >>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Murdoch and Trump >>> >>> Eric asked for someone with a comprehensive knowledge of climate science >>> and I do not put my name in the hat. But I do have some comprehension of >>> the basic science and the big picture. >>> But like all humans I have biases and very far from having a >>> comprehensive knowledge of the literature nor the science. In my >>> professional career as an engineer I have done a lot of engineering >>> modeling and in my private time I am enthusiastic about emergence and have >>> played with agent based models to simulate complex systems. >>> >>> So, on the topic under discussion, there are issues that I reckon should >>> not be questioned (“the science is settled”): >>> a) On decades time scales the earth has warmed, the average sea level >>> has increased and the average CO2 in the atmosphere increased >>> b) There are direct and indirect causal links between CO2 and temperature >>> c) The direct causal link is not sufficiently strong to be worried about >>> d) It’s the indirect link that’s the source of the concerns. CO2 causes >>> the temperature to rise a little. This causes more evaporation and >>> subsequently more clouds. Some clouds cause cooling (negative feedback) and >>> some warming (positive feedback). >>> e) There are other factors than CO2 also affecting the temperature. >>> >>> Then there are issues that IMO are not settled.: >>> I argue an issue that cuts to the very heart of the current climate >>> change debate is the strength of feedbacks. If the positive feedback is >>> strong and the negative feedback weak then Houston we have a problem we >>> should listen to Greta. If not, Trump was probably right in withdrawing >>> from Paris. >>> >>> Pieter >>> >>> On Sun, 19 Jan 2020 at 23:13, David Eric Smith <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> Sorry… >>>> >>>> My own typos are bad enough, but usually comprehensible. But when the >>>> damned computer helpfully comes in and substitutes the word it thinks I >>>> must have meant, the result is a true obscurity: >>>> >>>> > One also wants to take into account arctic se ice, which if I really >>>> is on a faster melting schedule then some models predicted, though I don’t >>>> have even a good impressionistic memory of what I have heard on that. >>>> >>>> One also wants to take into account arctic _sea_ ice, which if I >>>> _remember_ is on …. >>>> >>>> Eric >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> ============================================================ >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>> FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC> >>>> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >>>> >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >>> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >> > > > -- > Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. > President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy > emergentdiplomacy.org > Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA > [email protected] <[email protected]> > mobile: (303) 859-5609 > skype: merle.lelfkoff2 > twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
