"I think it is likely we'll see a global pandemic," Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health professor Marc Lipsitch told the Journal. "If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people worldwide are likely to be infected in the coming year.
My son-in-law who is an infectious disease doc at Harvard Medical School says Marc Lipsitch is the world-leading authority on pandemics. If Lipsitch is right we are in the early stages of Covid-19 and so comparisons with current levels of the flu are irrelevant. George Duncan Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University georgeduncanart.com See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Land: (505) 983-6895 Mobile: (505) 469-4671 My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos. "Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion." >From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn. "It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy. On Sat, Feb 15, 2020 at 10:21 AM Owen Densmore <[email protected]> wrote: > I'm reading an NYTimes piece > <https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/coronavirus-risk-interpreter.html> > on the Coronavirus containing: > > But one of the attendees, a public health student, had had enough. > Exasperated, she rattled off a set of statistics. > > The virus had killed about 1,100 worldwide and infected around a dozen in > the United States. Alarming, but a much more common illness, influenza, > kills about 400,000 people every year, including 34,200 Americans last flu > season and 61,099 the year before. > > > I had looked that up previously and was also puzzled .. Flu is way more > deadly .. those numbers are staggering. > > The article was less on the mortality rates etc but on: > Coronavirus ‘Hits All the Hot Buttons’ for How We Misjudge Risk > .. and goes on to explain the lopsided response. > > BTW: the Flu numbers were a wakeup call! I hope we all have one! > > -- Owen > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
