Well, how long does it take a case to incubate, "come in", and be tested. I was thinking that was around ten days. I will check with the DHS data when it comes out on Thursday. Remember most cases start (and often remain) pretty cold-like. Still, there are more tests around, now, so the lag should be decreasing.
Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [email protected] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Wednesday, April 22, 2020 6:20 PM To: FriAM <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Local News not so good If median ... median ... incubation is ~5 days, and we had perfect case data (Ha!), then we'd see the bump near the 18th/19th. The rt.live data shows NM's R(t) > 1 on the 14th, two days after Easter, then seemingly peaking ~16th, with a fat tail. The smoother could easily be affecting that. A good counter hypothesis is *that* is your bump and you'll return to the path you were on on the 12th. On 4/22/20 5:08 PM, [email protected] wrote: > Well, the next few days will tell the story. > > I expect an easter bump. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
