I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms. Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go out on the roads with my car here in Ecuador due to the pandemic pandemonium, and I have to drive to get to the only supermarket that is open within 50 miles, and it closes at 1:00 pm.
On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 11:51 AM <[email protected]> wrote: > Gary, > > > > If you join the FRIAM ZOOM … perhaps come a bit late … you will get a > chance to meet Glen. NOTHIN’ he says ain’t for nothin’. It starts at 9 am > Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If > not, let me know. > > > > Nick > > > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > > Clark University > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz > *Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic > > > > I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's > Discord" - sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. > Google search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be > some software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be > associated with Glen and reminders. I feel so behind times and > technologically challenged. :-). Channeling Nick, I supposer. [no offense > intended, Nick] > > > > On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM uǝlƃ ☣ <[email protected]> wrote: > > Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to > "pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman > list page could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into > the footer can play the same role, but since few posters clean up their > posts (e.g. deleting the repeated footer), such piling makes sifting > through contributions awkward, as well. > > Anyway, I'd like to "pin" this post somewhere. I think it's fantastic to > make such explicit predictions, similar to those experiment sites where you > have to submit your design for review, then conduct the experiment, then > submit your results: > > > https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/ > > And it follows nicely with the (painfully slow) admission that knowledge > comes through failure, not success: > https://blogs.plos.org/everyone/2020/04/06/filling-in-the-scientific-record-the-importance-of-negative-and-null-results/ > > For now, I'll simply install a reminder in Tempus Dictum's Discord to come > back and look at Dave's prediction in late June. > > On 5/11/20 7:42 AM, Prof David West wrote: > > The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020. > > > > This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the > biological and the perceptual. > > > > The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made > widely available, and treatments that reduce severity and death rate may or > may not be soon at hand. Hot spots will continue to flare. Model-based > prognostications will be confirmed. And none of this will matter. > > > > A radical shift in perception from "we're all going to die" to "I have > next to zero chance of severe illness or death" is reaching a tipping point > and a catastrophic (mathematical sense of the word) change from one to the > other is imminent. > > > > "Science" will quickly confirm (justify / rationalize) this shift — > after all, my individual risk is 150,000 / 300,000,000 or "pretty damned > small." > > > > Politicians will quickly cave to this new perceptual reality and > socio-economic restrictions will collapse. > > > > The percentage of the population that wear masks (just one example of a > behavioral phenomenon) will roughly equal the number that fastidiously > fasten their seat belts; but this and similar behaviors will mitigate the > the infection/death rate. > > > > Covid will be PERCEIVED to be no worse than the flu, the death rate will > become "acceptable," and the current media "hysteria" will fade away. > > > > There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly > and individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few > months — who will argue against these changes but their objections will be > quickly countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of consequences — > ones you do not share — to cater to your fears or your ego?" > > > > None of the above should be interpreted as anything except a simple > observation / prediction. > > > -- > ☣ uǝlƃ > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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