Nick, The probability of any individual in the US having COVID-19 (known cases divided by population) is .00518
How many strangers — people you do not know are disease free or are non-infecting with antibodies — do you encounter, close enough to exchange droplets, in Santa Fe? Add the number of strangers that anyone in your inner circle might similarly encounter? Let's assume that an encounter guarantees transmission, such that if you/yours encounters someone with the disease, you will be infected. So, if you or yours encounter ten strangers, your odds of getting the disease increase to .0518. If a hundred, then .518 The only difference in risk between Santa Fe and Massachusetts is the number of strangers you/yours encounter. That number is pretty much under your control, so there is some, but relatively minor, difference in risk. using cases/population data, the odds of a stranger having covid in Hampshire county is 830/160,000 = .00519. In Santa Fe County, 126/150,000 = .00084. The odds that a stranger has the virus is six times greater in Hampshire. You control the number of strangers, so you control the risk. Most of the other factors that I can think of — e.g. likelihood of a droplet exchange, likelihood of transmission — reduce the risk from the worst case numbers above. A factor that would increase risk concerns the likelihood that a stranger has the disease given smaller population units than the county; i.e. 200 known cases in a 300 resident nursing home = 66%. Stay out of nursing homes! Go to Mass and continue to be a hermit. Caveat: I grabbed the first numbers on Google that presented themselves. Statisticians feel free to tear my argument apart. davew On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 3:12 PM, [email protected] wrote: > No, no. I am not being picky. Or at least, I hope not. What I want to know is > the relative risk of staying here in Santa Fe County NM or going to Hampshire > County MA. (never mind getting there, that’s a whole different issue). I > think that decision is best shaped by knowing how many new cases there are, > full stop in, and/or how many new cases there are per population. I may be > being REALLY DUMB, but I don’t think I can find that info from the NYT site, > any more. > > By the way, I am mixing up my CORvid threads with my COvid threads. > > Nick > > Nicholas Thompson > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > Clark University > [email protected] > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly > *Sent:* Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:06 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request > > Picky, picky. > > Seriously, ... > > On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM <[email protected]> wrote: >> Yes. Thanks, Frank. That’s where it used to be. But the “case growth rate” >> is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a useless >> number because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has already >> had. What I am really looking for is the daily case increase, or even >> better, the daily case increase per 100 k pop. >> >> Thanks, >> N >> >> Nicholas Thompson >> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology >> Clark University >> [email protected] >> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >> >> >> *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly >> *Sent:* Sunday, May 24, 2020 3:01 PM >> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> >> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Corvid-nerd request >> >> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200524&instance_id=18744&nl=the-morning®i_id=60903300&segment_id=29017&te=1&user_id=03a68c161f5d16347943cf2195691293 >> >> >> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM <[email protected]> wrote: >>> Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or >>> per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e.. I am sure I am >>> being dumb. Somebody, help me to not be dumb. >>> >>> Thanks, >>> >>> Nick >>> >>> Nicholas Thompson >>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology >>> Clark University >>> [email protected] >>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >>> >>> >>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . >>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> >> >> -- >> Frank Wimberly >> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz >> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >> 505 670-9918 >> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... >> ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > > -- > Frank Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > 505 670-9918 > -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... > ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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