You are correct, Frank. On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 8:36 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote:
> "The concept "fair", entails, in its entirety, that the coin will, in the > long run, produce an equal number of heads and tails with no pattern." > > George will correct me and I defer to his greater knowledge of probability > theory. I believe a fair coin the distribution of heads/tosses will have > an expected value of 1/2. For a large number of tosses the probability of > an equal number of heads and tails is vanishingly small. > > Frank > > On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 8:25 PM Eric Charles < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> Nick, >> I feel like this fast-forwarded some how. The first and most important >> thing Perice wants is for us to think clearly about our concepts, right? >> >> So, before we get going into this, the first thing we need to do is >> figure out whether we agree on the following: >> >> The concept "fair", entails, in its entirety, that the coin will, in the >> long run, produce an equal number of heads and tails with no pattern. >> >> That is, while we can hypothesize about whether the coin is fair based on >> all sorts of things - studying how it was made, measuring it's symmetry, >> etc. - we recognize that any such evidence would be irrelevant in the face >> of results from a very large number of flips. >> >> Phrased the other way around: The claim that a given coin is "fair", if >> we are thinking clearly, a claim about what result we will see if we flip >> the coin a very large number of times. Nothing more, nothing less. Though >> we expect the construction of a coin to impact whether or not it is "fair", >> we are definitely *not *asserting that it has any >> particular construction when we assert that it is fair.** >> >> >> >> ** Note the connection with our prior discussion of psychological terms >> and human insides. >> >> ----------- >> Eric P. Charles, Ph.D. >> Department of Justice - Personnel Psychologist >> American University - Adjunct Instructor >> <[email protected]> >> >> >> On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:56 PM <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> All, particularly, George— >>> >>> >>> >>> In an earlier larding, I argued that Peirce’s idea of truth is >>> essentially a statistical one. So: >>> >>> >>> >>> Is it true that the coin I hold in my hand is a fair coin? >>> >>> >>> >>> Let the coin be flipped once, and it comes out heads, what do you >>> think? No way of telling, right? OK. Flip it again. Heads again. Two >>> heads in a row. P=0.25. Sure, I guess so. It could be fair. Flip it >>> again. Hmmm. Three heads in a row………*Five* heads in a row. P= 03125. >>> You know? I think that coin is probably not fair. “Fair” in this >>> formulation means the infinite distribution of H and T coinflips is .5. >>> “Probably not” means, the chances that this coin’s flips are drawn from a >>> .5 distribution is less than 0.0312 and my threshold of dis belief is >>> 0.05. Thus, when I say that the coin is not fair, that inference is in >>> part a statement about me, and the truth of the matter, the limit of the >>> distribution of flips, is prospective. But the notion that there can be >>> some truths of some matters is absolutely essential to science. Why else >>> would we flip the coin? >>> >>> >>> >>> Now George: why am I bothering you about this. Three questions: >>> >>> 1. Is this valid statistical logic? I ask because all psychologists >>> are only amateur statisticians, and many of us bugger up the logic. In >>> particular, we are known to confuse type I and type II error. >>> 2. Is this Peirce’s logic? If not, what is Peirce’s logic; and >>> 3. Is Peirce’s logic the ORIGIN of the logic of statistical >>> inference that I was taught 60 years ago in graduate school**. If so, >>> which among the famous statisticians, Pearson, Spearman, Fischer, etc., >>> read Peirce? >>> >>> >>> >>> [signed] >>> >>> >>> >>> TLOLTT* >>> >>> >>> >>> * The Little Old Lady Tasting Tea >>> >>> ** RIP, Rheem Jarrett >>> >>> >>> >>> Nicholas Thompson >>> >>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology >>> >>> Clark University >>> >>> [email protected] >>> >>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . >>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> >> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . >> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > > > -- > Frank Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz > <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> > 505 670-9918 > -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . > ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > -- George Duncan Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University georgeduncanart.com See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Land: (505) 983-6895 Mobile: (505) 469-4671 My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos. "Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion." >From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn. "It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy.
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
