Pieter: Yes, I agree that there will be, overall, that it is likely there will be a net loss of what today we call jobs. Tom
============================================ Tom Johnson - [email protected] Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA 505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h) *NM Foundation for Open Government* <http://nmfog.org> *Check out It's The People's Data <https://www.facebook.com/pages/Its-The-Peoples-Data/1599854626919671>* ============================================ On Wed, Jun 3, 2020 at 10:59 PM Pieter Steenekamp < [email protected]> wrote: > Tom, > > I agree with you. I think the chances of AI and automation "taking over > most jobs" within say 10 years are very slim indeed. Further, as AI and > automation replaces some jobs, other jobs are created, so that with a > healthy economy you can have full employment. But that's not my point. It's > safe to say that as AI and automation replaces some jobs, new jobs are > being created. The million dollar question is how many new jobs are being > created for every one job loss. I argue that if that figure is less than > one, society faces huge problems. > > I don't make predictions, I look at possible future scenarios. For now > I'll discuss only two: > > a) After life returns to "normal" (whatever that is?), online shopping > will replace many small and "Mom and Pop" retail businesses. There could be > a significant nett loss in retail jobs. What are the owners and employees > of the lost small businesses going to do? Amazon is not going to employ > them. > > b) Peter Thiel famously said don't bet against Elon Musk. Maybe Elon will > not succeed this time, but there is certainly a reasonable chance that he > will succeed in full self driving cars and trucks within say ten years, or > very soon after that. I don't see enough other new jobs being created > to offset the job losses in human drivers. > > To come back to your point - I agree that in the near future AI will not > be able to do everything. Even if AI does not do everything, society could > still have big problems. All that needs to happen is that the ratio of new > jobs to disappearing jobs to be less than one. Maybe it will happen, maybe > not. But I argue there is a reasonable chance of that happening. > > Just to be clear, I'm not a Luddite. I am convinced there is enough > meaningful work for unemployed people to do. Let AI and automation do the > boring stuff, and let humans do the exciting creative stuff. We just need > to work out the details of how to organise the economy when a fraction of > the people are required to provide all the goods and services for all the > people. > > On Thu, 4 Jun 2020 at 01:19, Tom Johnson <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Pieter: >> Sorry for the delay in responding. >> >> The use of AI-type technologies has been around for 15-20 years as >> applied to constant, data-related topics, e.g. stock market stories ("The >> share price of X corporation rose Y on heavy trading today.") and sports >> stories -- football (yours and ours), baseball, horse racing, etc. In a >> similar manner, obituaries can also be written if someone plugs in the >> vital components: So-and-so died X. He was born Y in X and attended Z high >> school. >> >> I think though, it's going to be a while before AI can do everything. >> For example, all phenomena/stories have Qualitative, Quantitative and >> Geographic aspects wrapped up in a Timeline to understand and reflect >> change(s). The journalist, ideally, has to determine where to get the best >> data -- and in what format(s) -- to understand the phenomena, then what >> tools are best for analyzing it and, finally, how will the findings be best >> presented (this could be presented in multiple formats, but each will have >> different requirements). >> >> Or to take a current live example, if reporters are on the streets >> covering a demonstration, can AI be trained to "see" the best photo >> opportunity from infinite angles? I don't think so, at least not yet. >> >> Tom >> >> ============================================ >> Tom Johnson - [email protected] >> Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA >> 505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h) >> *NM Foundation for Open Government* <http://nmfog.org> >> *Check out It's The People's Data >> <https://www.facebook.com/pages/Its-The-Peoples-Data/1599854626919671>* >> >> ============================================ >> >> >> On Sun, May 31, 2020 at 12:34 AM Pieter Steenekamp < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> I'm not a journalist, but offer my opinion in any case: >>> >>> a) Accoriding to Forbes >>> https://www.forbes.com/sites/federicoguerrini/2020/05/30/dozens-of-msn-journalists-to-be-replaced-by-robots/#14c9ff97333e >>> , >>> Microsoft does not produce their own stories, but uses editors to select >>> and adapt stories from other sources. They are replacing staff with AI, but >>> because they don't have journalists, they're not replacing journalists with >>> AI. >>> >>> b) I know it's opinion only, but IMO in a reasonably short time most >>> services and products will be provided with a fraction of all humans, AI >>> and automation will do the balance of the work.AI selecting news stories is >>> one example, Another example is, although Elon is probably not going to >>> meet his schedule with full self-driving cars, the probability is >>> reasonably high that he will achieve it in say 5 years. This is going to >>> cause massive unemployment - drivers are not going to learn to code, and >>> coders are being replaced by AI in any case too. If you're not a top >>> programmer, your employment prospects are not secure. Our challenge is to >>> adapt. I'm not American, but if America should elect Andrew Yang (maybe >>> 2024?) as president then America could lead the world in adapting for a >>> world where there are not conventional employment opportunities for all. >>> >>> >>> On Sat, 30 May 2020 at 20:34, Prof David West <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> I see that MSN is replacing human journalists with AIs. Curious as to >>>> the reaction from real journalists among FRIAM? >>>> >>>> davew >>>> >>>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. >>>> . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>> >>> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . >>> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> >> -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . >> ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . > ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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