As I noted on the slashdot post, I was really surprised at the number of trainable parameters. 175 billion. Wow! The trainable parameters in an ANN is basically just the synapses, so this is actually a human brain scale ANN (I think I read elsewhere this model is an ANN), as the human brain is estimated to have some 100 billion synapses.
I remember the Singulatarian guys predicting human scale AIs by 2020, based on Moore's law extrapolation. In a sense they're right. Clearly, it is not human scale competence yet, and probably won't be for a while, but it is coming. Remember also that it also takes 20 years plus to train a human-scale AI to full human-scale competence - we'll see some short cuts, of course, and continuing technological improvements in hardware. What's the likelihood of a Singularity by mid-century (30 years from now)? On Tue, Jul 21, 2020 at 01:20:31PM -0700, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote: > Just for any old cf: > https://analyticsindiamag.com/open-ai-gpt-3-code-generator-app-building/ > > Someone mentioned in a recent thread, here, the Chinese Room thought > experiment, to which my reaction is always "Bah! That's nothing but a loaded > question" ... like "have you stopped beating your child?" But the truth is, > my answer to the Chinese Room is that it *is* intelligent. GPT-3 is nothing > but the Chinese Room. Similarly, all we are is deep memory machines trained > up on huge datasets. At some point, I've made the argument that the > demonstration of *understanding* can't be made through language. As fond as I > am of repeating back someone's expression in one's own words to demonstrate > you grokked their point, *ultimately* the only demonstration of understanding > that I really accept is in the *doing* or the *making* of stuff. > > Now, there's some prestidigitation behind debuild.co. But at first blush, > here is a machine that *understands* the website specification well enough to > actually code the website. The AI skeptics will move the goalposts, of > course, as they always do. E.g. they can say that programming a website to > meet specs isn't a big deal, we've had declarative and domain-specific > languages for awhile. And web pages and programming languages are all purely > linguistic anyway. But it's a short trip from here to, say, a CNC machine, a > 3D printer, a script for a light show, or even algorithmic composition of > music. > > I'm reminded of people who are expert at some task, like playing baseball or > whatever, but when asked *how* they do what they do, they're at a loss ... > tacit but no reflective understanding ... like a cat not really recognizing > itself in a mirror, where dolphins do. > > What's actually missing in the machines we berate as being mindless > algorithms is not general intelligence or universal computation. It's > general-purpose sensorimotor sytems ... universal manipulation ... hands with > thumbs, tightly coupled feedback loops like our sense of touch, > excruciatingly sensitive data fusion organelles like olfactory bulbs, etc. I > think I can argue that's what gives us "understanding" ... not whatever > internal computation we're capable of. > > > -- > ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) Principal, High Performance Coders [email protected] http://www.hpcoders.com.au ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
