Tentative answer to my own question: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajhb.23512
On 10/14/20 10:09 AM, Steve Smith wrote: > > Cody - > > Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this prediction > today than I was back in April... though it is interesting to be > reminded of what I was thinking (or at least saying) back then! > > I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined would > result. The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong example of > gather/scatter with no significant contact-tracing... the few > attendees in my larger circle only report: "I was there all week and > there were no outbreaks while I was there... see! I tole'ya it was a > Democrat Hoax!". I think the "return to college" is maybe providing > some mixing as well, though I think it is better than the post Spring > Break/Mardi Gras 2020 moments. > > I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back then to > have even the most general idea of how significant the differing > implied levels of herd-immunity might be. I remember when some of > the early broad testing (e.g. whole communities) began and there was > evidence of more widespread (asymptomatic) infection (via anti-body > detection) and I thought we might actually be able to establish a > meaningful level of "herd immunity". Also the "experiment" that is > Sweden seems somewhat ambiguous... > > I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with > network transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what "herd > immunity" means in the context of shifting the shifting valencies as > individuals limit the number (and significance) of interactions with > others. It seems that by now, there must be some studies/models that > try to address that. Also the implication of "superspreader" events, > and what actually characterizes such? > > - Steve > > On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson wrote: >> I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd >> immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from >> Steve Smith. >> >> My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What >> if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the >> battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new >> york/new jersey, and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if >> not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity. >> And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in >> infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense >> states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity. >> I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state >> border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red >> Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa? >> >> >> Cody Smith >> >> >> On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> >> I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for >> the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you >> like)... It doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and >> D(eath)... and is parameterized with sliders. >> >> >> >> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html >> >> And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft): >> >> >> >> https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js >> >> I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this >> beyond echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick >> mitigation followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing >> significant herd-immunity. This author refers to it as "hiding >> infections in the future" and makes a good point about staving >> off infection too well for too long and getting hit hard next >> "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment, >> increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines. >> >> >> >> https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b >> >> For better or worse, other countries are trying different >> mixtures and styles of mitigation and have different levels of >> health-care capacity and ability to location-track and shut down >> mobility. >> >> While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of >> many Red States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble >> study for the ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the >> territory IS the territory, the population IS one big fat analog >> computer for calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is >> naturally 42). >> >> Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, >> the evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers >> who say "we didn't know that people without symptoms could be >> infectious until 24 hours ago!" represent a reservoir for >> exposure if they continue to mix, but might end up being a source >> of virus resistant. >> >> >> https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/ >> >> >> https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY >> >> >> My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this: What >> if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the >> battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new >> york/new jersey, and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if >> not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity. >> And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in >> infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense >> states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity. >> I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state >> border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red >> Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa? >> Seems like the ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) >> is pretty social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue >> States is at risk... though professional and even office work is >> nominally quite easily social-disanced. >> >> Mumble, >> >> - Steve >> >> >> ..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . >> .-.. --- .. >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> >> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> >> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
