My dad worked on advanced, highly safe, concepts for nuclear reactors at Westinghouse Nuclear Energy Division. I don't remember the details but he said that there would be a severe international crisis by 2050 if the world didn't aggressively pursue nuclear (fission) energy in some form.
--- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Tue, Nov 10, 2020, 11:18 AM Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> wrote: > You can outsource your thinking any time to me off-line, Nick. I am very > interested in what you just sent, and it applies to the work we are > presently doing at our Center. > > On Tue, Nov 10, 2020 at 9:07 AM <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Hi, Anybody, >> >> >> >> I stumbled on this letter in research gate, which seemed to suggest that >> we are on the edge of a bustling “small nuclear” economy. The idea seems >> to be that we retrofit all our power plants with lowish temperature >> reactors and there’s your carbon problem solved, bang! I gather that >> these reactors also produce hydrogen which could then be used as a fuel for >> vehicles? Did I read that right? >> >> >> >> The earlier answer on the entropy of renewables answered the question; >> especially when allied with a simple calculation on energy density for >> solar and wind. I strongly recommend https://www.withouthotair.com/ >> <https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.withouthotair.com%2F> >> by either buying the book or it is available to download for free. The >> author sadly died in his prime but his most important legacy has global >> implications and is factual. It proves that the energy balance cannot be >> met with natural, non-depleting sources. Please be careful with what you >> read, many exponents of renewables equate electricity with energy. In >> advanced countries electricity is only about 20% of the primary energy >> supply. Heat and transport dominate by far worldwide. >> >> >> >> As for nuclear, the IVth Generation of high temperature fission reactors >> is the near term future. Light water moderated reactors have been deployed >> almost universally in all countries except India, UK and Canada who have >> each chosen different routes. The reason for the light water reactor's >> dominance despite escalating safety costs is well documented in the >> military history of the last century. UK amongst some others developed and >> deployed the high temperature gas cooled 'dry' route which has many >> advantages as are now recognised. >> >> The Generation IV small modular reactors are inherently safe (see Ref >> Kletz, Trevor for a definition) as has been physically demonstrated in >> Japan and China on real plants. These countries have looked carefully and >> dispassionately at the options and developed devices which are inherently >> safe, factory reproducible, provide high enough temperatures for industrial >> and domestic heat, also high enough to produce thermo-chemical hydrogen for >> synthetic transport fuels and provide distributed energy sourcing since it >> is not feasible to transmit the total energy quantities demanded >> electrically in mature economies. Growing economies can move directly to >> distributed low-carbon nuclear elegantly avoiding electricity or gas or >> liquid fuel transmission infrastructure. >> >> >> >> The most advanced demonstration plant in the world is the HTR-PM, >> presently in commissioning at 2 x 100 MWe in China following the proving of >> its smaller prototype and serious worldwide development effort over >> decades. The worldwide body of knowledge on high temperature small nuclear >> is at a point where deployment at scale is practical before 2030. Most >> advanced countries have small modular reactor programmes with designs at >> advanced stages. The high temperature small modular reactor preparations in >> China, Japan, USA, UK, France and many others produce heat at a temperature >> matched to repower large coal stations carbon-free by re-using all except >> the boilers. Deployment studies for such repowering have been completed in >> China and USA. You will appreciate the massive impact this will have upon >> global emissions. >> >> >> >> The fuel is of course radioactive but is non-proliferating for weapons >> use because it is contained in ceramic which is harder to break down than >> newly mined materials so is unattractive and this also makes it safer to >> store as waste. Waste storage volumes are smaller than from light water >> reactors due to the higher utilisation of the fuel in the lower energy >> density core and the conversion efficiency of the downstream processes plus >> other helpful factors. These high temperature small modular reactors can >> operate on other fuels such as thorium but can also consume legacy 'hot' >> residues from pressurised water reactors and the military. >> >> In practical terms, it is physically impossible to build traditional >> large nuclear power stations at a rate relevant to the latest Paris >> imperatives. The only way to achieve a high pace of transition, even >> without global energy growth, is by factory manufacture of small >> distributable energy plants on a numerical scale similar to other volume >> manufactures such as aircraft. The Boeing 737 now has delivered 10,000 >> units manufactured at licensed factories worldwide and is still growing. >> This aircraft has a similar investment profile to small modular reactors in >> factory set up and economies of repetition. Volume manufacturing techniques >> from other industries are especially relevant to small modular nuclear but >> have not yet been widely applied in nuclear. >> >> >> >> As has been said by others in this post, the energy subject is large but >> that should not prevent thinking fundamentally about the underlying >> thermodynamic realities as MacKay has done, applying the immutable laws of >> physics in this debate as few have done and unemotionally analysing the >> problem and reaching conclusions as many enlightened nations have already >> but perhaps too quietly done so that democracies can be offered rational >> choices. >> >> >> >> Perhaps the final arbiter is cost in all these things. The UK Government >> Techno Economic Assessment has shown that small nuclear is attractive from >> a socio economic perspective and was followed up by a formative expert >> finance working group to make ready the market and the commercial context. >> Most recently a study, which can be extrapolated internationally laid out a >> pathway. >> https://d2umxnkyjne36n.cloudfront.net/insightReports/Preparing-for-deployment-of-a-UK-SMR-by-2030-UPDATED.pdf?mtime=20161011145322 >> <https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fd2umxnkyjne36n.cloudfront.net%2FinsightReports%2FPreparing-for-deployment-of-a-UK-SMR-by-2030-UPDATED.pdf%3Fmtime%3D20161011145322> >> >> So the answer to Dariusz's question is in my view, YES, supported by >> massive programmes of excellent work invested in small modular high >> temperature reactors which is largely unseen by the general population and >> decision makers to who sadly have so far only been offered rather poor, >> expensive and regressive energy choices for all our children. >> >> Please read widely and draw your own conclusions >> >> >> >> The source is: >> https://www.researchgate.net/post/Does_nuclear_power_have_a_future_or_will_new_technologies_of_renewable_energy_be_developed_in_the_energy_sector#view=5fa3fc12212f30468621d416 >> >> >> >> I apologize for once again out-sourcing my thinking. I promise that in >> return I am ever ready to answer your urgent inquiries concerning the >> alarm calls of *Corvus brachyrynchos*. >> >> >> >> Nick >> >> Nicholas Thompson >> >> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology >> >> Clark University >> >> [email protected] >> >> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >> >> >> >> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> > > > -- > Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. > Center for Emergent Diplomacy > emergentdiplomacy.org > Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA > > mobile: (303) 859-5609 > skype: merle.lelfkoff2 > twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >
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