Pieter It *was* very bad, but it seems that with 70% of the population having being infected , some kind of herd immunity prevails, at least for now. https://theprint.in/health/4th-sero-survey-finds-2-of-3-indians-with-covid-antibodies-but-still-avoid-crowds-icmr-warns/699600/
On Thu, Aug 26, 2021 at 2:43 PM Pieter Steenekamp < [email protected]> wrote: > Thanks for the reply Sarbajit, so what you're saying is the situation is > much worse in India than what the official numbers indicate. > > Pieter > > On Thu, 26 Aug 2021 at 10:48, Sarbajit Roy <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I can give you some more context citing my personal experience >> >> I stay in a spacious (for India) gated-off apartment complex in New >> Delhi, with 90 apartments and about 400 residents. About 25% of the >> apartments have retired doctors from India's premier hospitals, and we're >> mostly educated professionals well clued in to take precautions.. >> >> In the first COVID wave which peaked in Sept 2020 we had 2 infections >> and no deaths. In the second wave which peaked in May 2021, we had about 75 >> known infections (of which 25 needed hospitalization) and 8 COVID deaths in >> my apartment complex alone. Similar numbers happened in the surrounding >> apartment complexes. My father-in-law who stays in a similar apartment >> complex a mile away was hospitalised for 10 days with COVID this May at the >> peak but luckily pulled through at age 82 years. He only got a hospital bed >> because he was Indian Army while other patients were being turned away in >> droves before my eyes. >> >> Sarbajit >> >> On Thu, Aug 26, 2021 at 1:56 PM Sarbajit Roy <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Pieter >>> >>> The official statistics for India are quite (grossly) inaccurate. We can >>> *conservatively* multiply the number of infections by x10 and the >>> number of deaths by x3. >>> While the statistics are comparatively better maintained in the urban >>> areas, in the rural areas there is massive under-reporting and people were >>> dying like flies. >>> There is inadequate testing capacity and health infrastructure in the >>> rural areas and we estimate the death rate at between 6% to 12% of the >>> population in certain states. >>> >>> My own uncle, a retired Indian Army doctor aged about 81 years, was the >>> only doctor left for a radius of 100 km in a densely populated state >>> because the regular doctors had either fled or died of COVID. He >>> expired 2 months ago, of COVID, while still in the saddle attending >>> patients. >>> >>> Sarbajit >>> >>> On Thu, Aug 26, 2021 at 12:31 PM Pieter Steenekamp < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> Sarbajit, >>>> >>>> When covid started I was very worried about India with it's high >>>> population density. But according to >>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries the deaths/1M >>>> population in India is 313. In the USA, for example, the figure is 1950 >>>> deaths/1M population. >>>> >>>> Further, according to >>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/ India seems >>>> to be dodging the delta variant, because the daily new cases has been >>>> dropping since May and seems to be staying low. >>>> >>>> My point is, India seems to be doing relatively less bad than many >>>> other countries. >>>> >>>> Then, there seems to be relatively high prophylactic and early >>>> treatment use of ivermectin in India. >>>> Refer to: >>>> >>>> https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/lucknow/uttar-pradesh-government-says-ivermectin-helped-to-keep-deaths-low-7311786/ >>>> >>>> https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2021/05/11/indian-state-will-offer-ivermectin-to-entire-adult-population---even-as-who-warns-against-its-use-as-covid-19-treatment/?sh=18acd8956d9f >>>> >>>> https://covid19criticalcare.com/ivermectin-in-covid-19/epidemiologic-analyses-on-covid19-and-ivermectin/ >>>> >>>> https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/indias-ivermectin-blackout---part-iii-the-lesson-of-kerala/article_ccecb97e-044e-11ec-9112-2b31ae87887a.html >>>> >>>> I'd like to have your views on this. Is there a possible causal link >>>> between the use of ivermectin and low new covid infections in India? >>>> >>>> Pieter >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Thu, 26 Aug 2021 at 04:42, Sarbajit Roy <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Hi >>>>> >>>>> I would like to give you an "Asian" (perhaps culturally distasteful) >>>>> perspective on this from India. >>>>> >>>>> India has (officially) the 2nd highest number of COVID-19 infections >>>>> and deaths after the USA. >>>>> >>>>> However, within India, there is a small class of people, like me, >>>>> called Adi Brahmins .. it's a Hindu caste, who don't wear masks or take >>>>> clinically unproven or untested vaccinations, mainly because we >>>>> continually >>>>> practice an ancient non-contact system known as UNTOUCHABILITY. Since >>>>> Brahmins are traditionally the scientific / intellectual elite of India, >>>>> we >>>>> have known about virii, fomites, their modes of transmission, and how they >>>>> cause infection and disease for centuries and we knew this empirically >>>>> even >>>>> before microscopes were invented. >>>>> >>>>> The rules and concepts of untouchability are drilled into Brahmin >>>>> children from infancy, and we practice it scrupulously even if it is >>>>> banned >>>>> by law in India. And it's not as if we dont believe in Western medicine >>>>> systems or science, I was drilled by my grandfather who was the Director >>>>> General of India's Armed Forces ( .. aka Surgeon General of India), to the >>>>> extent that even the metal cutlery at his dining table was "autoclaved" >>>>> before we used them. >>>>> >>>>> The people who are contracting and dying of COVID in India are the >>>>> ones who are fated to do so because of their own foolishness and >>>>> ignorance, >>>>> and also because India's government wanted them to die. >>>>> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57005563 >>>>> >>>>> Sarbajit Roy >>>>> New Delhi, India >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Thu, Aug 26, 2021 at 4:31 AM Gillian Densmore < >>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Pieter: YES! thats what I was trying to ask. Personally I think the >>>>>> science and tech around Vaccinations just rocks. On the human side: It is >>>>>> amazingly cool what people can do what we decide to do so. >>>>>> you bring up a good point! I watched youtube videos from people that >>>>>> made the vaccines. LOL I did need to try to ask for a translation on what >>>>>> it meant to map the genetics. RNA. mRNA. And when I learned how safe the >>>>>> vaccine was. Then I decided I couldn't get in line fast enough. It sounds >>>>>> like that's the opposite what some people are doing. It sounds like the >>>>>> hear: this was made using new medical technology, that hasn't neneded to >>>>>> be >>>>>> tested outside of labs until now. So they basically heard Fear And Doubt. >>>>>> Which is a shame. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Wed, Aug 25, 2021 at 11:56 AM Marcus Daniels <[email protected]> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> They aren't under a mandate to have sufficient capacity, or they'd >>>>>>> have sufficient capacity. Through a triage process they can >>>>>>> prioritize. >>>>>>> It must happen already, even if it isn't legal. Oh, the local drug >>>>>>> addict >>>>>>> is here again. That guy is probably not #1 for the attention of the >>>>>>> doctors. If enough big organizations like hospitals, grocery stores, >>>>>>> etc. >>>>>>> simply refuse to patronize people without evidence of vaccination, there >>>>>>> doesn't need to be a mandate. And it isn't just ERs, there are people >>>>>>> getting allergy shots, getting physical therapy, eyeglasses adjusted, >>>>>>> etc. >>>>>>> No shirt, no shoes, no vaccination, no service. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> -----Original Message----- >>>>>>> From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of u?l? ?>$ >>>>>>> Sent: Wednesday, August 25, 2021 10:47 AM >>>>>>> To: [email protected] >>>>>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] On the: RLY!? side >>>>>>> >>>>>>> That's just nonsense. By the time you're at the ER, the vaccine is >>>>>>> largely irrelevant. Plus, when some 18 year old kid comes in unconscious >>>>>>> with a gunshot wound, it's difficult to ask her if she's been >>>>>>> vaccinated or >>>>>>> not. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Anyway, most large hospitals are under a mandate to treat whoever >>>>>>> walks in the door, even if they don't have insurance. To make the change >>>>>>> you suggest would require major legislative effort and, perhaps, >>>>>>> re-architect the laws that govern public medicine. You're not gonna do >>>>>>> that >>>>>>> anytime soon. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Taking a look at this site: >>>>>>> https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/09/944379919/new-data-reveal-which-hospitals-are-dangerously-full-is-yours >>>>>>> it seems the ratio of covid patients is actually lower than I >>>>>>> thought. The actual problem is insufficient buffer capacity, not the >>>>>>> surge >>>>>>> in covid patients. The covid patients are simply demonstrating the >>>>>>> problem. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On 8/25/21 9:58 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: >>>>>>> > Will you consent to a vaccine? >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > Yes: You get treatment for your non-COVID condition. No: Get >>>>>>> lost. >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > -----Original Message----- >>>>>>> > From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of u?l? ?>$ >>>>>>> > Sent: Wednesday, August 25, 2021 9:53 AM >>>>>>> > To: [email protected] >>>>>>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] On the: RLY!? side >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > Because the majority of the patients in the ERs are not covid >>>>>>> patients. (Last I heard the percentages were around 60-70% are >>>>>>> non-covid. >>>>>>> But I'm sure it's location dependent.) They're regular people with >>>>>>> regular >>>>>>> problems, many of whom delayed medical treatments for a year due to >>>>>>> lockdowns. We did a little too much "just in time" logistical planning >>>>>>> with >>>>>>> our hospitals and this fairly tiny bump is demonstrating that our buffer >>>>>>> wasn't high enough. >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > The smart thing to do is increase capacity, correct the buffer >>>>>>> size, and take care of both covid patients and regular people. >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> > On 8/25/21 9:33 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: >>>>>>> >> Why should we increase the capacity of the hospitals? Just don't >>>>>>> let them in. >>>>>>> >> >>>>>>> >> -----Original Message----- >>>>>>> >> From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of u?l? ?>$ >>>>>>> >> Sent: Wednesday, August 25, 2021 9:25 AM >>>>>>> >> To: [email protected] >>>>>>> >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] On the: RLY!? side >>>>>>> >> >>>>>>> >> Well, only if you don't make a big stink out of it. If it's a >>>>>>> normal, everyday thing, yeah sure. But if it's some litmus test for >>>>>>> who's >>>>>>> with us or who's against us, then they're much less willing to submit to >>>>>>> such tests. >>>>>>> >> >>>>>>> >> You see this in spades w.r.t. to the protests. In Portland, they >>>>>>> antifa are rigorous about staging counter protests, which makes the >>>>>>> fascists dig in and be more committed to protesting, which makes the >>>>>>> antifa >>>>>>> more committed, ad infinitum. Here in Olympia, it's mostly just the >>>>>>> fascists out there protesting mask and vaccine mandates. (Yes, irony is >>>>>>> dead.) But as a result, they're anticlimactic and peter out pretty >>>>>>> comfortably. >>>>>>> >> >>>>>>> >> Along the same lines of "don't feed the troll", if we focused our >>>>>>> attention on increasing the capacities of hospitals rather than brow >>>>>>> beating the anti-vaxers, I suspect the vax rate would climb steadily and >>>>>>> the reactionary tendencies of the anti-vaxers would abate. >>>>>>> >> >>>>>>> >> >>>>>>> >> On 8/25/21 9:09 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: >>>>>>> >>> These same people are willing to submit to an employer's drug >>>>>>> tests. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> -- >>>>>>> ☤>$ uǝlƃ >>>>>>> >>>>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe >>>>>>> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>>>> >>>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>>> >>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> >>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>> >>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >
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