Yes, I wondered if anyone else enjoyed that as much as I did. > On Sep 17, 2021, at 1:15 AM, Roger Critchlow <[email protected]> wrote: > > sum(reasons_for_death) != number_of_deaths, and Death itself is listed as a > reported cause of death. > > -- rec -- > > On Thu, Sep 16, 2021 at 12:01 PM Pieter Steenekamp > <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > For what it's worth, from table S4 in the supplementary data > https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/07/28/2021.07.28.21261159/DC1/embed/media-1.pdf > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.medrxiv.org%2fcontent%2fmedrxiv%2fearly%2f2021%2f07%2f28%2f2021.07.28.21261159%2fDC1%2fembed%2fmedia-1.pdf&c=E,1,6VfStpuSzrEd0AAiOsShT0R5D3p6OBIjgLpPVffJphF-rw0GBDmGlU5GWImascp4KtBdoqX7fEevwAFa0itV31yZ6ORM__prytVuyeBn&typo=1> > > Reported Cause of Death BNT162b2 (N=21,926) Placebo (N=21,921) > Deaths 15 > 14 > Acute respiratory failure 0 > 1 > Aortic rupture 0 > 1 > Arteriosclerosis 2 > 0 > Biliary cancer metastatic 0 > 1 > COVID-19 0 > 2 > COVID-19 pneumonia 1 > 0 > Cardiac arrest 4 > 1 > Cardiac failure congestive 1 > 0 > Cardiorespiratory arrest 1 > 1 > Chronic obstructive pulmonary > disease 1 > 0 > Death 0 > 1 > Dementia 0 > 1 > Emphysematous cholecystitis 1 > 0 > Hemorrhagic stroke 0 > 1 > Hypertensive heart disease 1 > 0 > Lung cancer metastatic 1 > 0 > Metastases to liver 0 > 1 > Missing 0 > 1 > Multiple organ dysfunction > syndrome 0 > 2 > Myocardial infarction 0 > 2 > Overdose 0 > 1 > Pneumonia 0 > 2 > Sepsis 1 > 0 > Septic shock 1 > 0 > Shigella sepsis 1 > 0 > Unevaluable event 1 > 0 > > On Thu, 16 Sept 2021 at 17:37, Frank Wimberly <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > Pittsburgh irony: Ooh. Yinz are rill tough. I'm skeered. Cf. Kasich, who > is from McKees Rocks which is across the river from "dahntahn" Pittsburgh. > > Yinz = "you ones" similar to "y'all" in the South. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 8:41 AM <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > Then we can say with a 99% probability that the vaccination does not increase > the total (again all causes) death rate with more than a factor of 1.6. > > Oh I am so glad. So reassuring*. > > > > You guys are scaring the total crap out of us citizens. > > > > N > > > > PS to Frank. There’s lot’s of irony in Pittsburgh. I count on you to > recognize it. > > Nick Thompson > > [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwordpress.clarku.edu%2fnthompson%2f&c=E,1,TyDEVSRIE0SeXH4oUb2NLH72-_MtKz_3q8bY-68jXaX-I6J08KlUumptKiq48nFPVHkWzQKv06aXGvUNpUaCCWg1kX7WnPxaJ7cRF9sE74wro1UffhXjfHYd&typo=1> > > > From: Friam <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> On > Behalf Of Pieter Steenekamp > Sent: Thursday, September 16, 2021 7:34 AM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Could this possibly be true? > > > > Thank you Roger, > > Using the numbers from Phizer's report, I did a sort of quick and dirty > manual iteration process to get to the following Monte Carlo testing > conclusion > > If: > a) the total death rate of the unvaccinated is 14/22000 (all causes) and > b) a total of 15 out of 22000 (again all causes) of the vaccinated group > died > Then we can say with a 99% probability that the vaccination does not increase > the total (again all causes) death rate with more than a factor of 1.6. > > My Python program to do this is as follows: > > import random > total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16=0 > r=1.6 # manually iterate this number until the answer is less than 100, with > 1000 test runs for a probability of 99% > numberList = [0, 1] # 0 = live, 1=dead > for i in range(1000): > x=(random.choices(numberList, weights=((1-r*14/22000), r*14/22000), > k=22000)) > if( sum(x)<16): > > total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16=total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16+1 > > print(total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16) > > # iteration tally: > # with r=1.5 then total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16=105 > # with r=1.6 then total_of_tentousand_samples_less_than_16=69 > > > Pieter > > > > On Wed, 15 Sept 2021 at 22:26, Roger Critchlow <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > > Pieter - > > > > The initial safety and efficacy report was published in the New England > Journal of Medicine at the end of 2020, > https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577 > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.nejm.org%2fdoi%2ffull%2f10.1056%2fnejmoa2034577&c=E,1,3vBgbhTMbNvgPkNNCkoG1Di9PyMZ4wdlO_pfzcTwmmrCnsjA4GOZCpQ3jcAwkdDg3MuW6p4TH9Am9S_vCjZ3nwn7L7B-NwD9c48FznmRRZhUg49OGdEewGI,&typo=1>, > it has smoother language and inline graphics. It also has fewer deaths in > the treatment group than in the control group, but it is only reporting the > first two months of the study. > > > > The numbers of deaths reported in the "Adverse Reactions" section of these > reports will eventually track the expected death rate of the population in > the trial, and apparently they do, since there is no comment to indicate > otherwise. Every clinical trial that tests the safety of a treatment is > expected to agree with the baseline mortality statistics for the population > in the trial. > > > > If you see 14 and 15 deaths out of 22000 participants and your immediate > response is that 15 is bigger than 14, then you should probably stop > torturing yourself with statistical data. You're making and agonizing over > distinctions that the data can never support. The number of deaths in a > population over a period of time has an average value and a variance which > are found by looking at large populations over long periods of time. In any > particular population and period of time there are a lot trajectories that > the death count can take that will be consistent with the long term average > even as they wander above and below the average. > > > > I append a simple simulation in julia that you can think about. > > > > -- rec -- > > > > # from https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm > <https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm> > death_rate = 869.7 # raw deaths per 100000 per year > > > > # simulate the action of a 'death rate' on a population of 'sample' > individuals for 'days' of time. > > # convert the raw death rate to the death_rate_per_individual_per_day, ie > death_rate/100000/365.25, > > # allocate an array of size sample*days, size coerced to an integer value, > > # fill the array with uniform random numbers. > > # if an array value is less than the death rate per person per day, score 1 > death. > > # this overcounts because individuals can be scored as dying more than once, > YODO! > > > > simulate(death_rate, sample, days) = > sum(rand(Int(sample*days)) .< death_rate/100000/365.25) > > > > # accumulate an ensemble of death rate simulation results. > > # run 'trials' simulations of 'death_rate' for 'sample' individuals for > 'days' time. > > # accumulate an array with the number of deaths in each simulation > > accumulate(death_rate, sample, days, trials) = > [simulate(death_rate, sample, days) for i in 1:trials] > > > > # check the model: run the simulation with death_rate for 100000 individuals > and 365.25 days, > > # the result averaged over multiple simulations should tend to the original > death_rate. > > # we report the mean and standard error of the accumulated death counts > > julia> mean_and_std(accumulate(death_rate, 100000, 365.25, 50)) > (868.34, 31.64188002361066) > > # That's in the ball park > > # Now what are the expected deaths per 22000 over 180 days > > julia> mean_and_std(accumulate(death_rate, 22000, 180, 50)) > (94.3, 10.272312697891614) > > # that's nowhere close to the 14 and 15 found in the report. > > # Probably the trial population was chosen to be young and healthy, > > # so they have a lower death rate than the general population. > > # let's use 14.5 deaths per 22000 per 180 days as an estimated trial > population death rate > > # but convert the value to per_100000_per_year. > > julia> est_death_rate = 14.5/22000*100000/180*365.25 > 133.74053030303028 > > > > # check the model: > > julia> mean_and_std(accumulate(est_death_rate, 22000, 180, 50)) > (14.96, 3.6419326558007294) > > # in the ball park again. > > > > # So the point of this simulation isn't the exact result, it's the pairs of > results that this process can generate > > # let's stack up two sets of simulations, call the top one 'treatment' and > the bottom one 'control' > > # treatment and control are being generated by the exact same model, > > # but their mutual relation is bouncing all over the place. > > # That treatment>control or vice versa is just luck of the draw > > > > julia> [accumulate(est_death_rate, 22000, 180, 20), > accumulate(est_death_rate, 22000, 180, 20) ] > > 2-element Vector{Vector{Int64}}: > [12, 12, 13, 11, 22, 13, 14, 16, 13, 14, 21, 17, 13, 14, 19, 11, 20, 11, 9, > 19] > [11, 14, 15, 17, 11, 19, 17, 12, 16, 14, 18, 16, 11, 16, 12, 16, 10, 14, 17, > 13] > > > > > > On Wed, Sep 15, 2021 at 2:25 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > > In the Phizer report "Six Month Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA > COVID-19 Vaccine" > (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.full.pdf > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fwww.medrxiv.org%2fcontent%2f10.1101%2f2021.07.28.21261159v1.full.pdf&c=E,1,rlz_7kNdzmE-APflnOi4QbkbTnzEjDoF0f6_1hvABs56UG4pARFKFhjcckwqhM3SXoup6y2AdMAq5784aRgbG7Plt64B5sKV2h1El8T4&typo=1>) > , I picked up the following: > > "During the blinded, controlled period, 15 BNT162b2 and 14 placebo recipients > died" > > Does this mean the Phizer vaccine did not result in fewer total deaths in the > vaccinated group compared to the placebo unvaccinated group? > > I sort of can't believe this, I obviously miss something. > > But of course, there are clear benefits in that the reported vaccine efficacy > was 91.3% > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,Ui6oRyJ3fAYWjsiQ4kB0PwNlRlqr8wW3xCY8QKul5OyS2tadee_rN3t_z45QxHLtbYtp34xX-FxjPzZ-xwy5-MbM5tUeyafe2dZTjs6dzootSw,,&typo=1> > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,i6D098zBzHKQoeUD1c2itvhUDLOQLERXRQ7Pt-g_sG15Q6uV8CIq6hZ1__qU-zNQp-GkOqs1YXE6YJkjmfbA2F_n6NMEYxPTx8yD-A45TQ1X_gejrs1GD2XJnA,,&typo=1> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,5iLcrSAMTndNX3v6n_tn8rFRGfGrDY-nGc-9LhHerl_Yza7PleEvP6_KXFkCSz7PIeL41pDO2D0aFmYFJQGtjm-fTS3yZO9XGRdqGylHvpbiYPXTJ-d7&typo=1> > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,LSfAdD1lQ2cijuClf-2pVtOuO03EyJ5aB0x11tMy_xyUGRZDd3P5xbmDeDo_JjQ7zVpQjN2CFq_KQ0TcGkTG3SvmgUwVAZVpb84vf15vQkkYJQvxFpZKGr8,&typo=1> > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,8Wu4RuYBenZpr5Sx4MI2HtlwS68rNQRUkAGCs2lp92fJFkXrxGZhxUl6COBurfARNlAw1bojzaBZFIVipPCEe2amIyCfsQOB3gq6mS6O&typo=1> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,sIW0KdsGYTcXOvCfS8u8riV-Hocxz5dWexnJYPOrrBJrsiKYjVZzIBVRx1Nzh6R3RcV-NpGDtp9UxL9IhXmCVrD2Rh8hZ-fRWYbzOwAQtacFPlh0vSt6oyMScrc,&typo=1> > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,rXKX9mttHJYeCdXYXON-ur3gslIdt9MaqclINl-wjZp2QbVgsPEUbw-Vovuit4VcLV1w5EkWaVcTAIorW5r5OFiuCV2Zn9aLV4wSQLpqX5i64Ku7ORkNrT_x_w,,&typo=1> > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,xBt7IJ73cstcYNBaJx_LSYdPRrgyymb1AfCmsOzb7FU_MidVVF3-OcR2_A_MAPhJV7M3HQDgJdihmlUaL4Z8Qnq3Icv3sKpcsGnN-n4hM66aJySc8UKVXFM,&typo=1> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,23zrQzeQC-kG9knP60-qttXNJoxRloQVinPop4o1gu3S6nFoH8b2AnTVquXDDVTsgKv1ZaLfvcDKIP4ctnhPXm7kFyGvMazZ24EMNF1on2GklqoZ0A,,&typo=1> > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,nO97peHdTfCMEqxxh0ytlIwPvFPCpBb3U0z4vaD9Q61fmeQgDASQ2vgqEQ-N_WpN-xNB7KctaeSIAZ2QcEDo6oNO1h5IZVmUUNrfoSbKXbYOFA,,&typo=1> > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/> > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,l9KaJR1643EgEQbLARG5J3W83LLchgRHe0sWvYyBP7zaqN-J164E8eLAAYgnap-J7KIIYwd8-orSOusl1_3H3urRwR2TdIRqM6g97JiZtF4QaIOSUb-SMA67&typo=1> > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,IWa6XEdQjFzsycDpmoGc6d3rzs_cuzFWIGaeIVzfco3i83WVSajiT8nuiX5CSAJZt6AA8KEbdq1vLcb7bQ6ivmyRS_97lglmbC2TpOgmTg,,&typo=1> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,WI0TngWvRsxw0m_pplj2ZpliG7IZJ4mOf9AWmYUI4fKYqnFTdV4Uze55Fitz2m11rMebTrlxTOOkqsc_rldrklVrBBKX5a2OOqNG3TyG2RoQXo_uC7mrLyk,&typo=1> > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,D2j4BtCcyTTUDeKpZ7K8eyWupY_cInBIN3G16aLnuDyc8udimfO7oAQ5asSeuFMfnjUVky_y8DmaLg5oXBaiOLIker0KRZlHiSbXL3aDM-TxZZkvGf93&typo=1> > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/> > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,LxLEoEUUVC3XPz8ck4xpCK-6KapZoLKzkoKFl1vRACwiehi60CmwfTVLOUD_TGenMsNL3mcV-bztX1hq-WNqz0SI0hMoEKA2aFtaZaA_yerQhzyr0nL6C76iNA,,&typo=1> > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,I6IfCQi-EkQ9-uYkXWzkK-hxjirJfl-VT7icojrlZjeXkfhDoLfH-mO6s8OgBteQ0wVyiGUVatGadEEvPDBHLAqNxroJ2euwSxDb-tpTUiDzkQwh_I_ey7eg&typo=1> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,vv7k9RrFaL4mxMhteZ7lynwpJx4B7xPyQfZFbODpebtPRST0N8l59NGGPBJWWAuEx5ko-ysgvepbrKDNM8xBJm0NLtwo68QwBkzeJL05I8veLGMxwh4,&typo=1> > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,GtY2CfTGR7fakTo_C_bRCUe_ZXBicgxHYbIgx9OJTKGaPfgmL5iimUnepBbSoRBdJzcy8rLQTOGHzdKSWvPqUarFP0jN-Y-yA4gdz8yhjEHb84iGCPWRg-bkmQ,,&typo=1> > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/> > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,-xXcmu36CpIYLs_v0j-iNIIiP6NQowq9nGBTiyl64wo1XNJTK8ow7CFpvdYWfioYTpTZ_6X87gEJbcTU4hOtQDp7u5sOfY9BvusXDSRRX9c,&typo=1 > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,FEFXGWYmf-71Ot5Hj3D1DAtVBec-M9YLYcDiuyRDnSRvxhSMVL9Nyhg1ZxV-9PCHLS3nCGjXELBvbfSWaFCiadsM-5vblzhfGTa9E3oOGWUK-kJYjA,,&typo=1 > archives: > 5/2017 thru present > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,j-KeBa5ltWvSXTWLoOY72iXUqWg3LDy_DO9h_yu1B4B59HvQTMSDrTZbBz_XJnp5tAeaI-_OZGa1HpfFe7LedZNHmJl4JDle-9aaxOpQhWs,&typo=1 > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
.-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
