Eric, Teddy Seidenfeld and Clark Glymour know each other *very* well. There is no chance that the Similarity of titles is coincidental.
Frank --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Fri, Jan 7, 2022, 6:20 PM David Eric Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > The closest thing I can think of, Frank, is Teddy Seidenfeld’s paper Why I > am not an Objective Bayesian. > > But that is enough of a different position that it could be a derivative > title, with quite a different theme. > > Eric > > > > > On Jan 7, 2022, at 8:56 AM, Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > Who wrote a widely cited paper with the title Why I am Not a Bayesian. > > > > "I have not found on the web any calculation of the probability that you > have covid given that you have just decided to take a home covid antigen > test and found a positive result. So I did a couple. > > > > Abbott Laboratories Rapid antigen covid test (the only one I could get > real numbers for): > > > > "The BinaxNOW test correctly gave a positive result 84.6% of the time > compared to PCR. In the same study, the test correctly gave a negative > result 98.5% of the time." > > > > I will assume that PCR results are ground truth. Assume the base rate of > covid infection is 5%--the frequency of infectious covid among people you > have come in contact with in the last several days. Applying Bayes Theorem: > > > > pr(covid | positive test) = .05 pr(positive test | covid) / pr(positive > test) = > > > > .05 x .846 / (pr (positive test | covid) pr(covid) + pr(positive test | > no covid) pr(no covid)) = > > > > .0423 / (.846 x .05 + .15 x .95) = .0423 / (.0423 + .1425) = .0423 / > .1848 = .2288 > > > > If the base rate of covid infection is 10% the probability of covid > given a positive test is > > > > .0846 / .0846 +.135 = .3852. > > > > Bayes say you probably don't have covid. Moral: don't worry but > quarantine until you get a negative PCR result." > > > > > > --- > > Frank C. Wimberly > > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > > > 505 670-9918 > > Santa Fe, NM > > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - > . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2f%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,XpOrkV-K1yV-XC0fxBJPnAvEooQk6NFnnCnliGTSukdyBk9PIB_anIcUpFPpJGACMJsC4rkICGnYWEVlLPeeFS8y3d_dzp21MH7Kr-C-I8sHKgVFhssfVgc,&typo=1 > > un/subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,DPs578eJgFO7mtRsmfCc1Fwv8KYK8eFfssODamE2_nK0BIfuJdejgpDS6f5-q3h4SgDb-3gsSIfjcJjHm5ErQGXVZLdrgzAetXqts7YnxCbUEu-z&typo=1 > > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,3SF2rBDlC48vlyI9Be38sAAoxkBSKyi017QWl9r1q4cGR0M_sucWGtfp1I5TE71ORikVqbVJOReDPOR-2Kv3A0KcZpy-bMUjt4HCoiQF&typo=1 > > archives: > > 5/2017 thru present > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,LNqcbF9LdNfO3JGX0WUb5c7lPVBv7981IShFlLJ3IPX7g_LMw31Kntt_IM14TF3C2YUNJVa8wnFGElvK2xkEqXZ_iNAtzfbeSoN2MItFguaHeg,,&typo=1 > > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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