Re: [FRIAM] health care logistics

Tue, 25 Jan 2022 07:36:19 -0800 


EricS wrote:

I don’t remember hearing about infanticides, Frank, though there is 
much I miss that does happen.





me poking in with another anecdotal data point...  worth no more what 
you are paying for it...



During my last 10 years at LANL I worked with a lot of UNM grad 
students, many of them foreign.   Three were Chinese nationals. One was 
a girl (woman).  The two boys were only children.  The girl had a 
younger brother.   The boys came from urban areas, the girl from a more 
remote region.  She said it was not uncommon among her peers that they 
had younger brothers, a few older brothers, none with sisters.   Her 
husband (also a student from the same region) also had an older 
sister.   She said it was only because she had a younger brother who did 
not want to seek opportunities away from the family that she was 
allowed/encouraged to come to the US.   I worked with her for years 
before any of this came out.



She and one of the male students were perhaps the most humble and 
diligent of any of the students I worked with.  The other "boy" was a 
spoiled brat who picked on both of them (even more than other students) 
incessantly.   He came from significant wealth/privilege, the other two 
did not.    According to US security-lore, they were probably all deep 
Chinese-State agents in some sense.   I discovered that when I re-upped 
a clearance (not Q) and got grilled over why I hadn't disclosed the 
"relationship".   They seemed entirely unconcerned with any of the other 
nationalities (Indian, Pakastani - both Nuclear Powers, Jordanian, 
Saudi, Japanese, and a variety of Western Bloc Euros). This was 
post-9/11 when I would have thought the middle-east was scarier to them 
than China.



I don't think I revealed anything useful (much less secrets) to any of 
them.   Most were a joy to work with most of the time. Really all, 
excepting the one.  Ed probably knew (of) all of them, though many were 
EECE not CS.



When Marc Feldman used to report on these things to us — he having 
been in the advising team to the Chinese government for their 1-child 
policy — he said the main instrument of gender imbalance was the 
ultrasound.  To the extent that daughters got drafted into service of 
other’s parents, while sons were drafted into service of their own 
parents, there was some level of non-medically-driven abortion of 
girls.  It is easy to imagine, of course, that there are rural areas 
that have access to government enforcement but not to ultrasound, 
though much more 30 years ago than now.



Feldman said two things, one of which is an empirical claim and the 
other interpretive.  The empirical is probably trustworthy.  He said 
there was some province (or probably smaller region) where it wasn’t 
customary that married women always get carried off to the husband’s 
family, and that there, they did not see the sex ratio departing from 
whatever is its natural level, which I think is barely boy-biased to a 
degree that traditionally could have compensated for the excess death 
rates of boys in early life.  The interpretive thing he said was that, 
when questioned about what drove families to selectively abort until 
they had boy children, the number-1 answer they gave was not old-age 
material want, but a wish “to carry on the family name”.  Feldman 
seemed to think this was important, as an instance of the ineffable 
trumping the effable.  I hold the claim in some reserve, because the 
justification people give for doing something may or may not be what a 
neo-Skinnerian would call the actual cause.



The other thing that I’m not sure I follow in the Seibert and Rees 
narrative is how a 1-child policy gets us to a 90% reduction in a few 
decades.  log2(0.1) ~ -3.32, so 1-child gets us to 10% in about 70 
years if a generation is 20 years.  But that’s just details.


Eric




On Jan 24, 2022, at 9:11 PM, Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote:

Excellent, Marcus.


Eric, if it's less than 90% it still would have be significant.  Two 
problems, "God" has tricks for making babies.  As for 1 child per 
couple didn't they "terminate" some babies (not fetuses, feti?), 
particularly females?  My impression is that their population has 
grown substantially notwithstanding those policies.


Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM


On Mon, Jan 24, 2022, 6:38 PM Marcus Daniels <[email protected]> 
wrote:


    Before I launch into a diatribe about why the hell we can't agree
    to basic, never mind interesting things:   I'd just like to
    report that the James Webb telescope is in L2 orbit.  Score one
    for the negotiating, patient, subtlety-appreciating scientists
    and their counterparts in government.

    Marcus
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *From:* Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of David Eric
    Smith <[email protected]>
    *Sent:* Monday, January 24, 2022 6:01 PM
    *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
    <[email protected]>
    *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] health care logistics
    You know, as I read your characterization, Marcus, it took me
    back to Hannah Arendt’s description of feudal Europe and the role
    of the Rothschilds and other big Jewish quasi-stateless fixer
    families in relation to the feudal lords.  Fussy and indirect
    seems somehow very close to the right picture of the stateless
    ones navigating always through the cracks and seams, compared to
    the blunt moves of the ones who had states.

    I have some discomfort that this doesn’t quite map.  Yet it seems
    not fully dissimilar.

    Eric




    On Jan 24, 2022, at 7:19 PM, Marcus Daniels
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    SFI sponsorship seems like very much a fideistic declaration. 
     It would be interesting to see how that influence network feeds
    into a D.C. influencer network and real money.   There are some
    linkages, like Brookings, but leverage-wise it all seems much
    softer than with LANL and the DOE.   And it all seems so fussy
    and indirect compared to slapping down a few billion dollars to
    build a Starship. That's the appeal of Musk:  I'm f'ing doing this.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *From:* Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of glen
    <[email protected]>
    *Sent:* Monday, January 24, 2022 5:08 PM
    *To:* [email protected] <[email protected]>
    *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] health care logistics
    Well, that ain't true, either. Like Epstein, when you "invest"
    in the SFI or people like Steven Pinker or Bill Clinton, you're
    simply transferring from one store to another ... buying
    influence. If, e.g., the CIA contracts with the SFI to adapt a
    CAS modeling tool into a broad spectrum simulation tool, they
    are not only buying a (questionable) piece of software; they're
    buying *leverage* over people's salaries, loyalty, etc. So those
    VCs *will* see that money again, perhaps much less of it,
    depending on the efficiency of the transaction, or in fringe
    storage types (able to get past the receptionist after eating
    over-priced peri-Mexican food in order to have tea with smart
    people).

    On 1/24/22 15:31, Marcus Daniels wrote:
    > Some of them sponsor SFI for goodness' sake!   They'll never
    see THAT money again!

    -- 
    glen

    Theorem 3. There exists a double master function.


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