Great, many thanks, Pietro
Il 26/02/22 17:04, Jochen Fromm ha scritto:
I have created and run a simple agent-based model for democratic
backsliding
https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingDemocraticBackslidingABM.ipynb
It is in fact in agreement with the theory mentioned earlier (the
replicator equation for the coordination game described here)
https://nbviewer.org/github/JochenFromm/JupyterNotebooks/blob/master/ModelingDemocraticBacksliding.ipynb
It is just a simple model, but I believe it can help to explain why
people in authoritarian states like Russia or Belarus do not overthrow
their authoritarian government. If they protest, they are imprisoned
and vanish. If the momentum is big enough, the situation can be
different, though.
The same dynamics can be found in the opposite direction: criminals
and con men usually do not try to change the existing political order.
If they do, they are imprisoned and disappear behind bars. If the
crisis is big enough, then sometimes they really succeed in turning a
democracy into an authoritarian regime.
What do you think, does it make sense for you?
-J.
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Gianpiero Pescarmona, Pietro Terna, Alberto Acquadro, Paolo Pescarmona,
Giuseppe Russo, Emilio Sulis and Stefano Terna (2021),
An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Diffusion to Plan and Evaluate Intervention
Policies,
http://arxiv.org/abs/2108.08885
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