I don't know much about South Africa but one direction towards higher stages of Paxton's fascism scale is certainly democratic backsliding. Democratic backsliding can happen if a country is in a deep crisis and has a "strongman" leader which longs to stay in power. Orban in Hungary, Erdoğan in Turkey and Netanyahu in Israel have eroded democracy in their countries because they wanted to stay in power at all costs. Ruth Ben-Ghiat wrote about it in her book "Strongmen" [1].The more interesting aspect is to view it as a disorder of the system. Already Plato considered tyranny as a disease and disorder of a state [2]. He defined a tyrant as a person who rules without law, using extreme and cruel methods against both his own people and others. In a tyranny, the city is enslaved to the tyrant, who is in turn a slave to his desires and uses his guards to remove social elements and individuals that pose a threat to retain power. He will also provoke warfare to consolidate his position as leader. Aristotle says tyranny is a selfish rule by a single individual: "tyranny is a kind of monarchy which has in view the interest of the monarch only" [2]. He describes it as "arbitrary power of an individual which is responsible to no one, and governs all alike, whether equals or better, with a view to is own advantage, not to that of its subjects, and therefore against their will."Obviously it makes a difference if a country is ruled by a dictator or not. Milan Svolik says tyrants and dictators live in constant fear they will be overthrown and rely on a number of allies to govern [3]: "All dictators face threats from the masses, and I call the political problem of balancing against the majority excluded from power the problem of authoritarian control. Yet dictators rarely control enough resources to preclude such challenges on their own - they therefore rule with a number of allies, whether they be traditional elites, prominent party members, or generals in charge of repression. A second, separate political conflict arises [...] the problem of authoritarian power-sharing"-J.[1] Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Strongmenhttps://wwnorton.com/books/strongmen[2] Robert Boesche, Theories of Tyranny, The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1996[3] Milan W. Svolik, The politics of authoritarian rule, Cambridge University Press, 2012 -------- Original message --------From: Pieter Steenekamp <[email protected]> Date: 5/10/23 9:25 AM (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Paxton's stages as a dynamical system We're facing a difficult situation in South Africa. The upcoming BRICS summit in Cape Town, scheduled for August 22-24, includes an invitation to Putin. However, the International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for his arrest due to allegations of illicit dealings with Ukrainian children. As a signatory of the ICC, South Africa is technically obligated to detain him if he appears. While we enjoyed a positive reputation during Mandela's presidency, the country faced significant setbacks under Jacob Zuma's leadership. The current president, Cyril Rhamaphosa, appears to lack power. Well, lacking power could mean we might rate very low according to Paxton, which is a good thing?On Tue, 9 May 2023 at 23:20, Jochen Fromm <[email protected]> wrote:In Putin's speech on victory day today he argued that Russia is again fighting against fascism while the country clearly shows increasingly signs of fascism itself: from the angry dictator and the dread of the nation's decline under the corrosive effects of individualistic liberalism to the overwhelming feeling of victimhood almost all of the mobilizing passions defined by Robert Paxton were present.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Anatomy_of_FascismEven Prigozhin's Wagner group reminds me of the Waffen-SS during the time of Nazism: an armed combat branch of the organization that is responsible for the protection of the dictator which acts in competition to the regular armed forces and is known for war crimes and extreme brutality. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/09/putin-recycles-old-grievances-on-victory-day-as-russian-army-battered-in-ukraineI'm interested in understanding this complex process of social evolution where a country falls back into dark ages in terms of dynamical systems. Why are the structures always so similar? Why does Paxton's final stage five almost always end in war, violence and invasion of other countries? Luckily Trump only reached Paxton's stage three - and hopefully the conviction today will prevent that he is coming back...-J.-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom https://bit.ly/virtualfriam to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
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