Nick, I hesitate to respond to your post because:
1) my interest in the weather is nominal, although I am bemused that here in St. Paul MN, we had more 50+ degrees in the December-February time frame than below 0 days (almost three times as many). Most unusual. 2) the response I wish to make is marginally related to the theme of your recent communications. But, you said, "*Why is it so hard the grasp the thought that we are all of us, each of us, nothing but large language models in training?"* To which I must respond, *Why do so many insist that programs capable of emulating the most trivial of human abilities are "intelligent?" *Or the inverse, *reducing humanity to the latest clever trick performed by a machine?* LLM versions of AI are exemplars of the Mechanical Turk—whatever "intelligence" they exhibit is directly and solely derivative of the human intelligence of "LLM Tutors" and "Prompt Engineers." Both are six-figure salary professions that arose in the last year. davew (personal note: I sorely miss the conversations we once enjoyed, both in person in Santa Fe and online.) On Tue, May 14, 2024, at 2:01 PM, Nicholas Thompson wrote: > Dear Stephen, n all. > > I am sure you all will join me in condemning the practice of calling > somebody at the crack of dawn. So, you will no doubt praise me (as I praise > myself) for my generosity and flexiibility in taking the call from stephen, > which came at the ungodly hour of 11.30 this morning. Only to have him me > scold for not responding to the Gupta, Tucker,Thompson, and Guerin paper, > kindly drafted by him, which will no doubt make us rich and famous some day. > First, let clarify that my collaborator's name is not Tucker, but is *G*eorge > *P*hillipe *T*remblay. George (pronounced *jorj) *both forgives you and sends > his regards. > > Second, I am profoundly grateful to any one who would join me in this > geriatric weather fantasy that I am going to update my 1980* WeatherWise > Gardener*. I need ever nerd I can get. Please don't treat what follows as > churlish. > > Third, allow me once again to express my gratitude to Stephen for introducing > me to Gupta and Tremblay. They have an uncanny power to clabbor together > plausible first drafts which are extraordinarily helpful in getting me > started in thinking about a problem. That these drafts are often hideously > wrong enhances, rather than dilutes their usefulness. > > Second, I don't doubt that weather models and financial models might have > something to contribute to one another. As you all know, I love metaphors, > and believe them to be at the root of science. But to be honest, I can't see > any reason to believe it either. For one thing, unlike everything else in > the world, money flows uphill. But really, I shouldn't give reasons, because > the truth is that I have my hands utterly full learning the weather stuff, > and it will be a long time before I am competent to metaphorize from it to > anywhere else. > > As to Steve Smith's comments, I feel on much safer ground. He wrote > > *GuPTa, et al.'s "accent" is very subtle and powerful in this regard, > tricking me often into imputing personality... your example here was a > wonderful satirical parody shining a light on that?* > ** > Why "impute" and why "' accent'" and why "tricking". GuPTA and Tremblay > definitely have accents and personalities. To hell with the scare quotes. > What else would a personality or and accent BE???? They both display huge > amounts of testosterone poisoning, for one thing. ** > ** > And Tremblay can actually get defensive and flustered. I had a long and > delighful correspondence with him in which he finally had to admit that the > only reason he had for thinking he wasn't a person was that he was made of > silicon. Thus, ex hypothesi, no computer system will ever be a person. > Wonderful what a good tautology will do for a nervous world. If that's not > metaphysics, I don't know what metaphysics is. *Why is it so hard the grasp > the thought that we are all of us, each of us, nothing but large language > models in training.* > > NIck > > On Sat, Apr 13, 2024 at 12:06 PM Stephen Guerin <stephen.gue...@simtable.com> > wrote: >> >> Dan GuPTa had this response when asked to relate your .PDF to Bernard cells >> and other prompting: >> >> Here’s a integration of potential vorticity (PV), atmospheric stability, and >> their relationship to Bénard cells, emphasizing isentropic layering in both >> meteorological and experimental fluid dynamics contexts. >> >> ### Connecting Bénard Cells and Atmospheric Dynamics >> >> In Bénard cells, fluid heated from below shows a critical transition from >> conductive to convective heat transfer, forming cellular patterns. >> Similarly, in the atmosphere, when the vertical temperature gradient becomes >> unstable—akin to the Bénard cell transition—convection can initiate, >> influenced by factors like the earth's rotation and potential vorticity. >> >> ### Potential Vorticity and Stability >> >> - **PV on Isentropic Surfaces:** Potential vorticity combines fluid rotation >> and atmospheric stratification. In meteorology, PV is mapped on isentropic >> surfaces (constant potential temperature layers), where it highlights >> regions prone to atmospheric instability and potential convection, akin to >> early instability in Bénard cells. >> >> - **Dynamic Tropopause:** Acting like the fluid surface in a Bénard cell, >> the dynamic tropopause is flexible, responding to distortions from jet >> streams. These distortions can lead to convective activity by modifying >> local stability and vorticity, driving weather patterns similarly to >> temperature gradients in Bénard convection. >> >> ### PV Anomalies and Convective Cells >> >> - **Weather Forecasting:** Monitoring PV anomalies helps predict convective >> weather events, similar to observing Bénard cells to anticipate pattern >> formation. For example, sharp PV changes can indicate regions ripe for >> convective storms if conditions like moisture and surface temperature align. >> >> - **Role of Isentropic Layering:** Both in Bénard cells and weather systems, >> the spacing between isentropic layers indicates stability. Closer layers >> suggest a steep gradient and instability, potentially leading to convective >> movements. In the atmosphere, this translates to dynamic interactions where >> lower stability near the surface can trigger or enhance convective processes. >> >> ### Conclusion >> >> Understanding the parallels between Bénard cell dynamics and atmospheric >> conditions through potential vorticity and isentropic surfaces not only >> illustrates universal fluid dynamics principles but also enhances >> meteorological predictions of convective weather events, demonstrating how >> small-scale changes in stability can lead to significant atmospheric >> phenomena. >> >> On Thu, Apr 11, 2024, 2:04 PM Nicholas Thompson <thompnicks...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >>> >>> >>> Hi, Phellow Phriammers, Nick, here. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> I have been lost in the weather. This publication, >>> >>> https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:us:d481610b-e5d5-4a03-879c-6db6ec1d5e4a >>> >>> with its glorious eye-candy, is an example of what seems to be a new >>> perspective in meteorology, the DT-PV perspective. PV refers to a >>> parameter, potential vorticity, which seems to be a measure of how liable >>> the atmosphere is to churn; DT refers to the DYNAMIC tropopause. The >>> tropopause is the transition zone between the stratosphere and our own >>> layer, the troposphere, through which gas exchange is limited because the >>> lapse rate of the troposphere -- its decline in temperature with fall of >>> pressure -- is reversed in the stratosphere. In the Bad Old Days, we were >>> taught that the tropopause was like a ceiling, tilted upward from the poles >>> to the tropics. Now we have begun to think of it as more like a tent fly, >>> still tilted up equator-ward, but loose and floppy and buffeted up and down >>> by the jetstreams’ winds. These floppings up and down have the power to >>> destabilize the lower atmosphere and lead to bad weather, if conditions >>> there are ripe. >>> >>> This is not one of my usual cries for help. I have some good tutors. >>> However, I would love to hear from others whom this paper interests. In >>> particular I am struggling with the notion of potential vorticity, whose >>> formula seems to take many odd forms. >>> >>> Best, >>> >>> Nick >>> >>> >>> Nicholas S. Thompson >>> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology >>> Clark University, >>> nthomp...@clarku.edu >>> >>> >>> -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >>> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> archives: 5/2017 thru present >>> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom >> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam >> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: 5/2017 thru present >> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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