-- <[email protected]>
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024 Wednesday through Saturday...This next fall system has the potential to drop very heavy snow <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=heavy snow> for this early in November. A strong ridge <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ridge> will build over the Pacific Northwest mid-week, forcing a strong and deep trough <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=trough> southeastward into the Four Corners on Wednesday, eventually cutting off and stalling out over New Mexico on Thursday. There is currently some uncertainty on how far south this low pressure center will go which could affect how far south freezing temperatures will be able to go as well as the exact location of the heaviest snowfall amounts. Recent guidance has been trending more southward in recent runs and as a result forecasted snow amount were bumped up in farther south along the Sangre De Cristo Mtns <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Mtns>. and in the Sandia/Manzano mtns <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=mtns>. Snow showers will begin to make their way southward from the NW on Wednesday with widespread snow persisting through Thursday north of I-40 and west of I-25, with valley areas seeing some snow on Thursday morning. With the upper level <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=upper level> low center forecast to be centered over the NM <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM>-AZ border and a 100 knot <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=knot> upper level <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=upper level> jet <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=jet> over central NM <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM>, there is plenty of upper level <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=upper level> diffluence that will allow for large amounts of precipitation to fall along the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Mtns>. With strong 700mb wind perpendicular to the mountains on Thursday, plenty of orographic <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=orographic> forcing to further reinforce the potential for snowfall. At the surface, a backdoor cold front <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=front> will will push through the eastern plains on Wednesday evening and into the early morning hours on Thursday. as a result an east canyon gap wind is forecast for central valley areas. These winds look to subside during the mid day. Blowing snow <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=Blowing snow> is possible for areas along the central mountains, but the main area of concern for blowing snow <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=blowing snow> will be in the Northeast part of the state especially during the morning commute on Thursday. The bullseye for snowfall amounts looks to be along the lower Sangre De Cristo Mountains, where current guidance is leaning toward the higher end. This area is currently has a very high chance of exceeding 12" of snowfall so significant impacts are expected. Storm total snow amounts for the entire event are extreme for this early in November, with max amounts in the highest elevations reaching close to 50 inches. Temperatures will also drop significantly with the passage of this system. However, based on the amount of CAA <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=CAA> on Wednesday, there is still some uncertainty for how widespread freezing temperatures will remain which could impact snowfall amounts for central NM <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=NM>. Overall, maximum temperatures will be as much as 15 to 25 degrees belownormal <https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=normal> for this time of year at several locations throughout the state. The system looks to exist the state by Saturday morning, although there is some disagreement among the models on the exact timing and position of the low. Some guidance show that the low could linger a little bit longer with snowfall continuing into Saturday morning for northeastern New Mexico. High temperatures will begin to rebound a bit after Saturday. https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson
.- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom https://bit.ly/virtualfriam to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
