Re-posting this as it seems not to have got through our 'fire-wall'.
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From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: Views on Rifkin's theory?
Date: Thursday, November 19, 1998 2:59PM
Arthur Cordell wrote,
>Technology is also labour empowering or enhancing. McCluhan said it
expands
>our reach. Viz., right now I am posting this message to a computer in
>Waterloo, Ontario that is forwarding to about 500 or so other computers
>around the world.
>This is what helps to make it a 'transformative technology.'
Tom responded....
How many of those 500 computers stay subscribed to futurework if it comes
with an explicit price tag? And who pays whom? Do the lurkers pay the
posters for the service or vice versa? The phrase 'transformative
technology' suggests that the 'goods & services' produced by the technology
don't fit the traditional definitions of economic value. How we can generate
traditional jobs and incomes from transformative goods and services is a
moot question. It's like asking how we can build a log cabin out of glass
and steel.
Arthur responds to Tom,
The two stories below begin to tell the story of a changing economy, with
lots of surprises, far better than I can at this moment.
arthur
THE SURPRISING SIDE OF THE "NEW ECONOMY"
The highly touted "new economy" based on "information goods" and driven by
the mighty microprocessor, might not turn out to be such a good deal for
citizens of the future, says J. Bradford De Long. In predicting what the
new economy is likely to bring, De Long warns that "the invisible hand of
the market may do a much poorer job of arranging and controlling the economy
when most of the value produced is in the form of information goods."
Information goods are by nature not excludable (the owner cannot easily and
cheaply keep others from using it without permission), not rival (a computer
file is infinitely reproducible), and not transparent (purchasers wouldn't
be paying for information if they already knew what it was). These factors
will change the nature of the relationship between buyer and seller, making
the transaction "much more that of a gift exchange: I give you something,
and out of gratitude and reciprocity you give something back to me." De
Long predicts that "in an information age economy the businesses that enjoy
the most success will not be those that focus on making better products but
those that strive to find ways to induce consumers to pay for what they
use... Other companies will follow a different strategy. Rather than
giving their product away in hopes of receiving payment in return, they will
try to make money by suing everybody in sight... If the information age
economy winds up looking much like the one sketched here, the role of
government, far from shrinking into near irrelevance, as many of today's
pilgrims airily assume, might grow in importance." The government would
then be forced to expend enormous effort on creating support mechanisms that
provide a semblence of market competition and restore the profitability of
useful innovation, resulting in a "dark mirror image of the new economy we
hear so much about today." (J. Bradford De Long, "What 'New' Economy?"
Wilson Quarterly Autumn 98) http://wwics.si.edu/WQ
PCs WANT TO BE FREE
Internet-marketing guru Michael Tchong sees a future in which computers are
free and soft-drink companies sponsor desktop software: "In five years, most
PCs will be given away. It's going to be the perfect way to serve ads in a
targeted fashion." Tchong predicts that major corporations will be willing
to subsidize the cost of computers as a tradeoff for capturing the attention
of the wired generation. The desktop will soon be targeted as prime
advertising space with companies like Coca Cola or Pepsi willing to sponsor
an office software suite, for instance. Right now, says Tchong, two-thirds
of advertisers still don't believe the Net is worth the trouble, but as
Internet users increasingly turn away from TV as an entertainment medium,
advertisers will realize that they must try alternative methods to reach
this all-important audience. Key to the shift will be increased use of
streaming media, turning the Web into an effective sales tool. Only about
1%, or 34,000, of the total number of commercial Web sites currently use
streaming technology, but by 2003, Tchong predicts that number will jump to
10% or 15%. And, he adds, unlike television, the Web provides an immediate
mechanism for closing the sale. (TechWeb 11 Nov 98)
http://www.techweb.com/
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