Further ruminations about Russian male life expectancy . . .

There's also the question of misplaced concreteness of "life expectancy".
Most of the Russian males whose life expectancy hypothetically declined so
much are (miraculously?) still alive. Does the change in life expectancy
reflect a measured decline in the health of these individuals? No. Although
their health may well have declined, their "life expectancy" is based not on
their own health but on other people's deaths.

Some of that decline in life expectancy may also have come from the loss of
previously projected improvements, rather than from actual increase of
mortality. "Not only are things getting worse," the trends seem to say,
"they are not getting better." This is a kind of double counting in which
the chickens are counted before they've hatched and then counted again after
they haven't hatched -- we only had one egg but we lost two chickens.


Regards, 

Tom Walker
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