>Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 16:54:21 -0400 >From: Island Press <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Mime-Version: 1.0 >Precedence: bulk >Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Subject: Eco-Compass, 7/13/98--Global Destinies, Regional Choices >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >X-Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Which World ? : Scenarios for the 21st Century > >As we look towards the coming of the Millenium people are starting to >worry about >where we are heading. Rapidly increasing populations, a globally linked >economy, and >important social changes are transforming the world at an ever increasing >pace. If we >are to influence the direction in which we are headed, it is important >that we consider >long term demographic, economic, technological, environmmental, social, >cultural, >and political trends. > >Attempting to predict our global future from so many complex trends is a >daunting >task. Each individual trend is subject to a variety of unique influences, >as well as a host >of often unpredicable relationships between it and other trends. The >traditional >scientific approach of examining each trend seperately is not useful as if >we want to see >the big picture. "To gain insight into a complex system, particularly one >that is >imperfectly understood, it is often necessary to take a "crude look at the >whole", >to use Nobel laureate Murray Gell-Mann's apt phrase". > >A five year research effort organized by the Brookings Institute, the >Santa Fe Institute >and the World Resources Institute, known as the 2050 Project has set out >to "find paths >or trajectories into the future that might lead society toward a >favourable destination >half a centary from now". A new book by Allen Hammond Which World? builds >on the >findings of the 2050 Project to examine the critical trends and identify >the factors that >should matter most in shaping the future. > >Which World? examines the long term trends that influence our complex world, >identifying the critical trends and projecting them forward to "illuminate >the possibilites >that lie ahead". Hammond then examines three possible scenarios for the >21st century. > >MARKET WORLD - a future in which economic and human progress is driven by >the >power of free market economies and human initiative. > >FORTRESS WORLD - a vision of a world where unattended social and >environmental >problems diminsh progress creating, poverty, despair, conflict, violence, >and social chaos. > >TRANSFORMED WORLD - a world where fundamental social and political change >offer hope of fulfilling human aspirations. > >The author goes on to address the choices facing the world on a regional >basis, >"combining critical trends, scenarios, and information on cultural, >social, and >political context". > >Which World? offers provocative views of the future and, in the process, >sheds new light >on the present. Despite the analytical underpinnings, this book offers >vivid descriptions >of the choices that human society faces and the opportunities for shaping >a more hopeful >future. Its insights make it invaluable to anyone interested in destiny of >the human >enterprise or the challenges facing particular regions-from political >leaders to global >business executives, from educators, scholars, and students to a concerned >general audience. > >Visit Eco-Compass at http://www.islandpress.org for the enhanced version >of this >feature with links to the best on-line resources examining global >economic, social, >and environmental trends and indicators. > >Don't forget to visit our Eco-Compass member discount section on-line. >Username = Eco-Comapss and the password is member. > > >________________________ >Eco-Compass by Island Press >The Environmental Publisher >1 800 828 1302 >[EMAIL PROTECTED] >http://www.islandpress.org >
