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"Fossilgate" -- the biggest coverup in history
by Jay Hanson
When will global oil production peak? This question is never
raised by oil companies or government officials. Indeed,
"Fossilgate" is the biggest coverup in history.
THERMODYNAMIC LIMITS TO GROWTH
Projections show that demand for energy is expected to rise
sharply in the next ten years:
"The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the agency
of the U.S. Department of Energy that tracks energy
statistics, predicted that world energy consumption will
soar by 54% from 1995 levels by the year 2015. And the
private Utility Data Institute (UDI) said May 20 that
685,000 MW of new electric generating capacity -- an amount
approximately equal to the total installed capacity in the
U.S., the world's largest economy -- will be added around
the world in just 10 years, from 1996 to 2005."
[ WIND ENERGY WEEKLY, Vol. 16, #750, 2 June 1997 ]
But oil recovery for energy use is limited by the "energy
cost" of recovery. In other words, if it takes more energy
to find and recover a barrel of oil than the amount of energy
recovered, then that oil will never be used for energy -- no
matter how high the money price of energy. Neither engineers
nor economists can repeal the laws of thermodynamics:
"Beyond 2005, the energy required to find and extract a
barrel of oil will exceed the energy contained in the
barrel". [ http://dieoff.org/page116.htm ]
WHEN WILL GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION PEAK?
40 years ago, geologist M. King Hubbert developed a method
for projecting future oil production and predicted that oil
production in the lower-48 states would peak about 1970. This
prediction has proved to be remarkably accurate. Both total
and peak yields have risen slightly compared to Hubbert's
original estimate, but the timing of the peak and the general
downward trend of production were correct.
Global oil production will begin to "peak" or "plateau" when
approximately half of the "Estimated Ultimately Recoverable"
oil has been recovered.
"For many years geologists and oil companies have published
estimates of the total amount of crude oil that will ultimately
be recovered from the earth over all time. Remarkably, these
assessments of Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (EUR) oil have
varied little over the past half century."
[ http://www.wri.org/wri/energy/jm_oil/oil_esti.html ]
"Two important conclusions emerge from this discussion. First,
if growth in world demand continues at a modest 2 percent per
year, production could begin declining as soon as the year
2000. Second, even enormous (and unlikely) increases in
EUR oil buy the world little more than another decade (from
2007 to 2018). In short, unless growth in world oil demand is
sharply lower than generally projected, world oil production
will probably begin its long-term decline soon -- and
certainly within the next two decades."
[ http://www.wri.org/wri/energy/jm_oil/oil_plau.html ]
Oil production will peak in a couple of years! Should we be
alarmed? YES!!
THE END OF OIL = THE END OF SOCIETY AS WE KNOW IT
"Discovery of oil and gas peaked in the 1960s. Production is set
to peak too, with five Middle East countries regaining control
of world supply. The oil shocks of the 1970s were short-lived
because there were then plenty of new oil and gas finds to bring
onstream. This time there are virtually no new prolific basins
to yield a crop of giant fields sufficient to have a global
impact. The growing Middle East control of the market is likely
to lead to a radical and permanent increase in the price of oil,
before physical shortages begin to appear within the first
decade of the next century.
"The world's economy has been driven by an abundant supply of
cheap oil-based energy for the best part of this century. The
coming oil crisis will accordingly be an economic and political
discontinuity of historic proportions, as the world adjusts to
a new energy environment."
[ http://www.petroconsultants.com/book/book.htm ]
"The global price of oil after the supply crunch should follow
the simplest economic law of supply and demand: There will be
a major increase in crude oil and all other fuels' prices,
accompanied by global hyperinflation, rationing, etc. After
the associated economic implosion, many of the world's
developed societies may look like today's Russia. The United
States may be competing with China for every tanker of oil,
with the Persian Gulf oil exporters preferring Chinese rockets
to American paper dollars for their oil."
[ http://dieoff.org/page90.htm ]
"What, then, is the solution to our acute energy problem? There
isn't one." [ http://dieoff.org/page116.htm ]
There is NO substitute for energy. Although the economy treats
energy just like any other resource, it is NOT like any other
resource. Energy is the precondition for ALL other resources
and oil is the most important form of energy we use, making up
about 38 percent of the world energy supply.
NO other energy source equals oil's intrinsic qualities of
extractablility, transportability, versatility and cost. These
are the qualities that enabled oil to take over from coal as
the front-line energy source in the industrialized world in
the middle of this century, and they are as relevant today as
they were then. [ http://dieoff.org/power.gif ]
Optimists tend to assume that the "quality" (e.g., liquid vs.
solid) of energy we use is not significant, that an infinite
amount of social capital is available to search for and produce
energy, and that an infinite flow of solar energy is available
for human use. Realists know that none of these assumptions is
true.
"If one considers the last one hundred years of the U.S.
experience, fuel use and economic output are highly correlated.
An important measure of fuel efficiency is the ratio of energy
use to the gross national product, E/GNP. The E/GNP ratio has
fallen by about 42% since 1929. We find that the improvement
in energy efficiency is due principally to three factors: (1)
shifts to higher quality fuels such as petroleum and primary
electricity; (2) shifts in energy use between households and
other sectors; and (3) higher fuel prices. Energy quality is
by far the dominant factor."
[ http://dieoff.org/page17.htm#ENERGY ]
WHERE WILL IT END?
"Finally investment cannot keep up with depreciation (this is
physical investment and depreciation, not monetary). The economy
cannot stop putting its capital into the agriculture and
resource sectors; if it did the scarcity of food, materials, and
fuels would restrict production still more. So the industrial
capital plant begins to decline, taking with it the service
and agricultural sectors, which have become dependent upon
industrial inputs. For a short time the situation is especially
serious, because the population keeps rising, due to the lags
inherent in the age structure and in the process of social
adjustment. Finally population too begins to decrease, as the
death rate is driven upward by lack of food and health
services." [ http://dieoff.org/page5.htm ]
"In the end," says the Grand Inquisitor in Dostoevsky's parable,
"in the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to
us," 'Make us your slaves, but feed us.'"
Jay
. . .
Web pages on global oil depletion that are not referenced above:
http://ecotopia.com/hubbert/
http://www.igc.apc.org/awea/wew/684-1.html
http://crest.org/renewables/thl/april96-oil.html
. . .
A greatly-expanded version of "Fossilgate" -- with several
neat graphs -- is archived at: http://dieoff.org/page122.htm
