---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Wed, 7 Jan 1998 14:20:48 -0800 From: Sid Shniad <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Reply-To: Universal Access Canada <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Everyone's future on the line (fwd) > >Books / Everyone's future on the line / Victor Keegan The Death of Distance > > > >Everyone's future on the line > > > >Victor Keegan The Death of Distance > >by Frances Cairncross > >Orion 288pp (GBP)18.99 > > > >This is a vibrant time to be writing about the communications revolution, > and this book -- combining the author's deep knowledge of media and > economics -- provides a thorough account of the forces that shaped it and > the bounty it may deliver. > > >We are now entering the crucial period that will decide whether stunning > developments such as the Internet continue to be the preserve of the > better-off or whether they gather enough momentum to become a mass movement > providing (electronic) equality of opportunity for everyone including the poor. > > >The revolution has come about because of several simultaneous > breakthroughs: the huge capacity of fibre-optic telephone lines; > digitisation, enabling books and images to be broken down into the ones and > noughts of computer code and dispatched at unimaginable speed down telephone > wires; third, the huge drop in computer prices enabling us to buy for under > $1,500 a desktop model that would have needed the Albert Hall to house it a > few decades ago. > > >The trouble is that computers and necessary peripherals still cost at least > $1,500. But this may be about to change as new devices costing around $500 > tempt people to receive the wonders of the Internet through their existing > television sets. The mass market beckons. > > >But will it happen? Frances Cairncross's highly readable analysis is > unashamedly optimistic about how all this will revolutionise our lives > including reshaping cities, cutting commuting, abolishing the office as a > place to work, reducing the power of the state, cutting crime and even > helping to bring about world peace. > > >It may do much of this. But the trouble with predicting the effects of a > revolution moving as fast as this one is that forecasts soon get overtaken > by developments. If this book had been written five years ago it would not > have mentioned the World Wide Web, the Internet or "browsers" which navigate > us around this bottomless ocean of knowledge. They hadn't really got off the > ground then, yet they are now the main arteries of the information highway. > Yet more innovations -- such as sending Internet signals down electricity > wires -- have opened up new avenues since the book was finished in July, > > >Some of the author's predictions -- such as the erosion of tax revenues > because of globalisation -- may well come true, though not necessarily with > the consequences she predicts (further cuts in public spending). Why? > Because there are other ways for governments to raise money either immune > from technological change such as taxes on land and property) or spawned by > it -- such as the possibility of a small, globally agreed tax on > international transactions in foreign currencies (most of which are > channelled through a single computer complex in the United States). > > >In the end, nations will spend less on their welfare states only if they > want to, not because digital pressures force them to. It is even possible > that the death of distance has, Twain-like, been greatly exaggerated. > Frances Cairncross turns the Death of Distance from a catchy, alliterative > title -- albeit somewhat hyperbolic -- into a mantra repeated almost too > regularly throughout the text. It begins to sound like the Force that is > governing our lives. It isn't. It is having a dramatic effect on a small > though growing part of our activities. > > >Just remind yourself about the proportion of your income that is actually > spent on material things and services which haven't much changed -- and that > includes computers which are physical objects assembled in factories and > transported across distances. This is not to underestimate what is happening > as a result of the convergence of computers, telephony and television sets. > It is likely to have at least as profound an effect on the economy as > electricity, only much faster. The Internet alone is rapidly becoming the > universal source of instantaneous knowledge. For academic disciplines such > as physics, which rely on regularly updated theories, it has virtually > replaced books. The main danger is that far from bringing nirvana it will > merely widen the gap between rich and poor by creating a new "digitariat" of > people unable even to afford the new low-cost network computers. This > unfortunate scenario would give added advantage to those schoolchildren who > are on-line at home (with access to numerous homework cribs) at the expense > of those whose incentiveless existence is worsened by deteriorating access > to knowledge. > > >And the gap between the developed and developing countries could get even > wider. East Asia has espoused the revolution with relish. But what will > happen to Africa with no money and no infrastructure? It's true that > satellites, courtesy of Microsoft and others, may soon be passing overhead > but to what will they beam down their digits if there is no receiving > equipment? It will be like solar energy. Africa has this in abundance but > market forces aren't enough to translate it into industrial progress on the > ground. > > >But you don't need to be seduced by the promise of a digital Utopia to > learn a lot from this impressive book, which embraces everything from the > public-sector origins of the Internet in the US to the underlying economics > and competition problems with Microsoft. It repeats one or two myths, > including the story that the Internet was constructed to preserve > information in case of a nuclear war (it wasn't). > > >Also the statistic that 40 per cent of US households have computers is > inflated by the inclusion of computer games consoles, which aren't in the > British figures. The Americans are so far ahead of the rest of the world in > the manufacture of the hardware and software of the information revolution > that we shouldn't deny ourselves the advantage of being well-versed in the > use we make of them. Maybe it's our only hope. > > >The Guardian Weekly Volume Issue for week ending , Page 29 > >
