Ed Weick wrote:
>
> Tom Walker said:
>
> >Ed Weick wrote,
> >.....The "analytic process" proceeds
> by comparing probable costs and benefits of a range of alternative policies
> and choosing the alternative with the greatest expected net benefit. It
> implies that we have a model and sufficient data to allow us to proceed
> analytically. In contrast, the "cybernetic approach" envisions events as
> evolving via dynamic processes which are only partially understood and which
> are fraught with uncertainty. There is neither the appropriate model nor the
> data. Economic actors must behave a little like the player of a pinball
> machine.
> Ed Weick
We must use both methods. Imperfect models are much better than no model
at
all! Uncertainty makes complete theory impossible, but one need not know
the
physics of fire to know where to keep you hand. That is a theory. There
is
very little uncertainty about it. There is little uncertainty about the
limits to growth, or the suffering of the poor. We can act on that
knowledge. Knowing nothing is not reality. Knowing everything is not
reality.
Barry Brooks
