SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, MARCH 1998
on stands 24th Feb
PREVENTING THE NEXT OIL CRUNCH
Global production of oil from conventional sources is likely to
peak and decline permanently during the next decade, according to
the most thoughtful analyses. In these articles, industry experts
explain why and describe technologies that could cushion against
the shock of a new energy crisis.
THE END OF CHEAP OIL
Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère Forecasts about the
abundance of oil are usually warped by inconsistent definitions
of "reserves." In truth, every year for the past two decades the
industry has pumped more oil than it has discovered, and
production will soon be unable to keep up with rising demand.
[ also see three more articles on energy in this issue
http://www.sciam.com/1998/0398issue/0398quicksummary.html ]
Here is a snip from my latest essay REQUIEM:
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WHAT CAN BE DONE?
While an impressive array of American individuals, companies,
banks, investors, and think tanks are scrambling to prepare
for the twenty-first century, the United States as a whole
is not and indeed cannot, without becoming a different
kind of country.
-- Paul Kennedy
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics
bankrupt but it has always been nothing more than politics
in disguise ... economics is a form of brain damage.
-- Hazel Henderson
What can we do to avoid the "crash"? As a society, Americans can
do nothing because of at least two fundamental -- and apparently
insoluble -- problems:
(1) In principle, democracy (i.e., government by the common
people) can not direct a country to any specific goal because
democracy is "process" politics as opposed to "systems" politics:
As the name implies, process politics emphasizes the adequacy
and fairness of the rules governing the process of politics.
If the process is fair, then, as in a trial conducted
according to due process, the outcome is assumed to be just
-- or at least the best the system can achieve. By contrast,
systems politics is concerned primarily with desired
outcomes; means are subordinated to predetermined ends.[41]
(2) American democracy is not even true politics because is based
on money -- one-dollar, one-vote. What passes for politics in
America is actually a subset of our economic system.
In principle, it is not possible for our economic system to avoid
the "crash" because its premise, the conversion of nature into
commodities, is the heart and soul of our system problems.
Moreover, the doctrine of continuous and unlimited economic
growth serves as a substitute for redistribution of wealth and
true politics. It's a way for the plutocrats to maintain
political superiority over the lesser classes while avoiding
unpleasant political questions:[42]
It is the orthodox growthmen who want to avoid the
distribution issue. As Wallich so bluntly put it in
defending growth, "Growth is a substitute for equality of
income. So long as there is growth there is hope, and that
makes large income differentials tolerable" (1972). We
are addicted to growth because we are addicted to large
inequalities in income and wealth. What about the poor?
Let them eat growth! Better yet, let them feed on the
hope of eating growth in the future![43]
With no true political system -- and no prospect of obtaining one
-- we have no means to save ourselves. Unfortunately, several
billion innocent people will die untimely deaths over the next
hundred years. Individuals in small communities can protect
themselves somewhat through cooperation with others (reciprocal
altruism). But groups larger than a few hundred will
disintegrate under competition for increasingly scarce resources:
In brief, our research showed that environmental scarcities
are already contributing to violent conflicts in many parts
of the developing world. These conflicts are probably the
early signs of an upsurge of violence in the coming decades
that will be induced or aggravated by scarcity. The violence
will usually be sub-national, persistent, and diffuse. Poor
societies will be particularly affected since they are less
able to buffer themselves from environmental scarcities and
the social crises they cause. These societies are, in fact,
already suffering acute hardship from shortages of water,
forests, and especially fertile land.[44]
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Jay -- www.dieoff.org
