I was having a coffee this morning and reviewing my local Ottawa Citizen
when I found another article in the Business
Section on the Y2K problem. Ho Hum, with all the problems I am concerned
about, this seemed a long way from many of my interests but I scanned it -
same old stuff, we have a problem, we may have a catastrophe, someone should
do something, the government is taking care of their systems, etc.. Then up
to my computer and a quick read of my E Mail. A short posting by Doug
Carmicheal, a web site posting, oh well, I will take a couple of minutes to
see what he has to say. As I read through the lengthy document, I found
quotes that triggered a need to cut and paste, just because they jogged me
in ways that I was looking at other problems. The following is a series of
the cut and paste I took out of Doug's Web page and on which I will make
some comments.
First, though, I would like to say, I am not a very techno person and I
really have only a conceptual grasp of the problem. In that sense, I
represent the citizen who is slightly aware, while noting that most citizens
have no awareness, and some have looked in the black box and are highly
aware.
Quote:
We have also moved to a just in time society, which means we have little
reserves of anything, and distribution is dependent on smart computer
systems getting stuff to the right place on time. Violence and epidemics are
real.
Thomas
This confirms one of the insights that I have argued in other contexts. The
drive of the markets towards efficiency has a downside and that is twofold.
One, we have no reserves in the concept of "just in time inventory" the
great innovation of the Japanese miracle which gave it a competitive
advantage which has now been copied by everyone. Two, scheduling is
everything and creates complex systems in which one component failure can
invalidate a whole system. A car is only a boat anchor without gasoline.
It is a complex system that one shortage can invalidate all the other
benefits within that system.
Quote:
Nothing like seeing 220 mostly scared or depressed major IT folks to give
you the sense that what was supposition based on a series of one on one
interviews, is real.
I'd say the general view was that we, and they, don't make it. Between dirty
code and buildings run by equipment from vendors that are out of business
the length of the testing periods, the cost, the need for man years of time,
while people are leaving the organizations (programmers are following
markets) it looks like there is no way.
Thomas:
When 220 Information Technology professionals hold the general view, "that
we, (the companies) and they (the government?) don't make it", I start to
get seriously worried.
Quote:
I also believe (doesn't’t mean I am right) that central planning, FEMA,
military, rationing, price fixing, will not work. They are too dependent on
the very tech that is most likely to fail. That means that the
techno-fascism or government continues to do its job is no longer plausible
(there will be major political fights about this).
Thomas:
All our experts are trained to solve problems using the tool that is
failing. All our educated elites have been moving away from reality,
towards higher and higher levels of abstraction in the form of models,
simulations, flow charting, economic models that depend on the unseen and
reliable computer network systems that have been put in place over the last
35 years. We do not have the experience of people who knew how to make a
system work without this tool.
Quote:
added Feb 13) There will be extraordinary personal pain and fear on the part
of everyone, without exception. Asset preservation will appear first before
community or personal survival is taken seriously.
Thomas:
Money is a coward is an old saying. What it means is that no one likes to
lose anything and will go to extraordinary lengths to preserve their wealth,
their comfort, their lives and damn the rest. As this idea of collapse
starts filtering down into the mass consciousness, the potential fear will
cause people to make different decisions to save themselves such as trying
to convert their electronic money in bank accounts, stocks and bonds into an
item which has substantial value such as paper currency, gold, silver,
goods, etc. Our current economic system depends on the majority making
"rational" decisions based on an ongoing and growing economy. Once it
enters the consciousness of individuals, they will collapse their savings,
try to liquefy their assets and protect their accumulations. Once this run
of protection starts, we are only a moment away from panic as those who have
not yet started see those who have, apparently gaining while they are
losing.
Quote
Another friend and I talking this through came to the conclusion that doing
all we can to get people employed will be as critical as food and heat.
Little kits to let people knit, peel potatoes, plant seeds, whatever, will
be important, and needs to be done on a massive scale. There is some hope in
this, and fascinating to work towards.
Thomas:
I wonder whether we have the individual resilience to convert back to manual
style of life. The majority of people have never had to deal with sewage,
shortages, cold, uncertainty, time on their hands and lack of access to
solving problems with money and the local convience store and home hardware
depot.
Quote:
We see that both capital in its late 20th century form and socialism were
too bureaucratic, based on elites that become blind and stupid about the
consequences of large system dominance.
Thomas:
Rome fell/collapsed in 490 AD. It just fell apart. Order could not be
maintained, civilization became local, law became non existent, power
disappeared. Within a decade, those who knew how to build roads, organize
armies, run a bureaucracy just disappeared as the professionals aged. The
daily needs of food and shelter and personal protection came to occupy the
minds of the great and the poor, leaving no time or resources to the
recreation of a complex state. Could it happen to us?
Respectfully,
Thomas Lunde
