After the glowing government hand-out copied here by Mike Gurstein, it is
important to realise that the New Deal is not, and cannot be, a permanent
government policy but is making use of an enormous one-off tax of several
billions recently applied to large newly-privatised utilities (the same
amount of money thus not being able to pass into shareholder/ultimate
consumer hands and thus will not be spent in economically-stimulating
ways). It is an extremely expensive experiment and can only last for about
three years. It can only last that long if, it is calculated, 40% of
120,000 young people (18-24-yr-olds) who are due to pass through New Deal's
hands actually find themselves in genuine unsubsidised jobs.
A leaked confidential memo from the Chief Executive of the government
Employment Service shows that the results of the 12 pilot areas have fallen
well short of target (FT, 8 April), Even though disproportionate expense
and personnel have been applied to these areas and all young people there
have been intensively interviewed/advised/pointed to employers, etc, only
31% have found genuine unsubsided jobs. It needs to be asked: how many of
those young people would have found such jobs anyway? What also needs to be
asked is: what is going to be the ultimate % when the New Deal is flung
wide across the country?
Then, of the remaining 69% in the pilot areas, the government are now
having to pay employers and others quite high subsidies ($100 per week) to
take the young people on. Large and medium-sized employers (but not the
job-creating small companies) are falling over themselves to take advantage
of these subsidies and the further question then needs to be asked: how
many older/higher-waged employees are going to be made redundant after the
young people are taken on?
The New Deal will fail just as all government/bureaucracy-inspired
job-creating schemes without exception have failed in the US and the UK in
the past 15 years or so. The only net gain in jobs will be the swollen
ranks of the civil service -- which, of course, become almost impossible to
slim down afterwards. They will then be an even larger drain on public
taxation than they were before.
Meanwhile -- whether the experiment succeeds or fails -- over 100,000 14-19
year-olds are not in school or in training in the UK at any one time and
about 45,000 pupils leave school each year without any qualifications
whatever. The number unable to read or write adequately rises steadily.
This is becoming so serious that a Select Committee of MPs has now actually
proposed that the school-leaving age should now be reduced to 14! Such a
statement, though buried within a lot of other comment, is really a frank
avowal that the state-run education system is failing badly. The state
education system simply can't recruit enough teachers now -- even in the
"soft" disciplines, never mind linguists, scientists or mathematicians of
which there have been shortages for years. Teaching is way down the list of
jobs wanted by university graduates because they know that teachers are
increasingly harried by form-filling (on average, two hours a day, so the
teachers claim). We are now seeing the beginning of the end of a
comprehensive state education system -- hand-in-hand with the increasing
uselessness of the government's Employment Service.
I wouldn't believe the hand-out. It may look good to people on the other
side of the water, but it is pure moonshine:
>Date: Tue, 07 Apr 1998 13:35:31 +0100 GMT
>From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>Subject: Evaluation criteria for UK "New Deal" on jobs
>
>Evaluation criteria for UK "New Deal" on jobs
>
>UK employment Minister Andrew Smith detailed the New Deal objectives
>and committed the government to open and robust evaluation of the
>effectiveness of the programme. On 6th April he said:
>
>"The New Deal, which is launched across the country today aims to: help
>young and long-term unemployed people into jobs; help lone parents and
>disabled people who wish to work; improve their prospects of staying and
>progressing in work; and increase their long-term employability.
>
>"The New Deal pathfinder areas are showing the way forward through:
>tailored personal advice and help to place people into jobs; encouraging
>employers to recruit New Deal candidates; improving work skills,
>experience, qualifications, motivation, self-esteem and job search skills;
>enabling individuals to choose the most appropriate approach for them;
>maintaining effective job search.
>
>"The ways in which we do this are important, The New Deal must be
>delivered: professionally, efficiently and in a cost-effective manner;
>through effective local partnerships; by ensuring equality of opportunity,
>and by providing community and environmental benefits, and by ensuring
>that people on the New Deal, who claim Jobseekers Allowance, are
>aware of, and carry out, their responsibilities."
>
>"There will be robust, open and transparent monitoring of the
>effectiveness of New Deal in meeting these objectivess, and regular
>publication of statistics on the numbers and destinations of those moving
>through the programme. The key questions the evaluation must address
>are the effects of the New Deal on the youth labour market, on the wider
>labour market,on individuals, and on employers. We will be assessing the
>effectiveness of the structure and delivery of New Deal, its impact on
>public expenditure, tax revenues and the numbers on welfare, and the
>wider effects on social exclusion, the voluntary sector, the environment
>and on re-offending levels.
>
>The New Deal has been operating in twelve areas since January 5th.
>From 6th April people aged 18-24 who have been unemployed for six
>months or more will be eligible to join the New Deal.
>
>Press enquiries: Andrew Jones, +44 171 925 5108,
>Robert Veale, +44 171 925 5104
>Public enquiries: +44 171 925 5555
>
>Crown Copyright 1998.
>Source. UK government press release 06/04/98
>
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com
6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
________________________________________________________________________
