Jim Dator wrote:
>
> Thanks for jumping on the garbage truck, Brad. I agree with you about the
> stock market pyramid scheme, and also utterly deplore low oil prices, but
> why do low oil prices make you sense an "impending tragedy?"
>
[snip]
Low oil prices, *per se*, do not make me sense an impending tragedy.
What disturbs me is the assertion that "inflation is under control",
when oli prices are less than what they were 18 years ago.
I am not an economist, and I don't know the figures on inflation during
the past several decades. But here's my thinking: A car that cost me
less than $6000 in 1979 would cost me at least $15000 today. So let's
say that inflation has made the dollar devalue by about 2.5:1 (let's
be really conservative and say: 2:1). If gas cost $2.40 per gallon
today *AND* inflation was under control, I'd feel better. As it is,
I feel the rate of inflation is significantly higher than claimed,
but the drastic lowering of the price
of a resource we're running out of is
keeping the rate down -- sort of like a
person on a sinking ship thinking
there's no problem because they're
climbing the ship's stairs faster
than the ship is going down.
Obviously there's more to it than this, e.g., low prices for
farm crops. Here again, I'd feel better
if I knew farmers were getting
2-3 times what they got in 1979 for wheat, corn, etc., *AND* the
inflation rate was as low as it currently *nominally* is.
OK -- I can here the rebuttal now: Well, Bradford, what are some of
the things where you'd feel a decrease in price was hopeful,
since, clearly, if inflation is to be low, and energy and food
costs are going up, *something* has to come down? I think
a large part of the solution here has to come from greater
*efficiency*: If the price of gasoline doubles *AND* the
mileage of the average car doubles, then we're even. If
zoning policies slowly (we live in a
statistical world, after all...)
bring where people live closer to where they work, so that
the average commute is shortened and increasing numbers
even become able to *walk to work*, then we come out ahead!)
Does this make any sense?
\brad mccormick
--
Mankind is not the master of all the stuff that exists, but
Everyman (woman, child) is a judge of the world.
Brad McCormick, Ed.D. / [EMAIL PROTECTED]
914.238.0788 / 27 Poillon Rd, Chappaqua, NY 10514-3403 USA
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