Dear Bob: It is January 3rd, and as I sit in my warm house, typing on my computer while one 8 year old daughter watch's TV and another lies abed, enjoying the last of the school break, I read your message and I decided to imagine a worst case scenario exactly one year from now. My story is at the end of your message. >Date: Fri, 01 Jan 1999 20:17:08 -0500 >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >From: Bob Olsen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Subject: Bob Olsen's Friends & Y2K > Hi............. > > This is the most important email message that I have ever written. > SUBJECT: Canadian governmental responsibility to ensure the > safety and well-being of all Canadians in regard to > the threatened consequences of the Year 2000 problem. > > Written by Bob Olsen, Toronto, 1 January 1999 > > Permission is hereby granted to forward, duplicate or print > without profit as long as authorship is recognized and a > copy is sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Introduction: > > My purpose in writing this is, first, to help Canadians to > understand that they are threatened by the Year 2000, Millennium > Bug or Y2K problem, and to encourage you to demand immediate > action by municipal, provincial and federal governments. > > My second purpose is to convince all levels of government in > Canada that they have a responsibility to act, now. >1. What is known?: > > The Government of the UK, the US President's Year 2000 > Commission, the RCMP, and the Government of Ontario, none > of which could be described as alarmists, have publicly > advised people to begin storing up food and water for the > Year 2000. > > >2. QUESTIONS: > > A. Why should people store up food and water? > > That advice implies that the governments know that there is > a threat of disruption of water service and food supply. > > B. Why should the water supply be threatened? > > I have talked to City of Toronto water officials and read a > little bit, and I expect that the water supply system is the > is least likely municipal system to fail. It is the least > complicated. Although, any system might fail. > > I expect that the water system is reasonably secure (almost > guaranteed), as long as there is electricity. > > Thus, I believe that what the authorities are really saying, > is that there is a significant risk of electrical supply > failure. > > C. Why is the electrical system at risk of failure? > > I leave you to read the thousands of pages available on-line > on that topic. I am not an expert on anything. > > D. What risk is a significant risk? > > If, as a society, we have a responsibility to prevent one > death in ten-thousand population by implementing inoculation > or public health programs, that is because we agree that the > risk of one death in ten-thousand population is too high. > > My guess is that a 3-7 day disruption of electrical service > might lead to an increase in the City of Toronto death rate > by more than one in ten-thousand population. Again, I'm no > expert. > > We know that government authorities have advised people to > store up food and water for the Year 2000. But, since they > have not explained why they said that, we must infer why they > said that. If our (my) deductions are incorrect, then the > onus is upon the various levels of Canadian governments to > set the record straight, publicly. Now! > > >3. Consequences of disruption of electrical service. > > No electricity means: > - no electricity > - no heat > - no cooking (except on barbecues or camp stoves) > - no running water > - no sewage, no flush toilets > - no elevators > - no restaurants > - no banking > - no retail food stores open > - no gas stations open > - no subways (public transit in Toronto) > - no employment that depends on electricity or running water > (that would be just about everyone) > - no telephones after a few hours when the telephone system's > batteries run out > > Most people could probably survive 24 hours of such conditions. > > Disruption of electrical service for three days or more would > vastly increase the problems. There are large numbers of > seniors and other vulnerable persons living in high-rise > buildings in Toronto. > > How would they get water? > > What would they use for toilets? > > If people continued to use their toilet bowls without running > water, not knowing what else to do, there would soon be a > significant public health risk. If that situation continued, > the public health risk, I expect, might double weekly. > > Grocery stores might not open because their cash registers > would not operate and there would be no lighting in the store. > > Refrigerated foods in supermarkets, restaurants, warehouses > and meat packing plants would spoil and would need to be thrown > out, while people are going hungry. > > Each consequence would generate further consequences. > > Thus while the risk may be small, the consequences would be > almost infinite. The poor, the weak, and the elderly would be > the most at risk. I repeat, the poor, the weak, and the elderly > would be the most at risk. > > >4. What is needed? > > You can survive the Canadian winter without heat or running > water. The aboriginal people's have been doing it for thousands > of years. You can do it, if you are prepared and if you know > what to do. > > People need several things by September 1999: > - supplies > - knowledge of how to survive > - communal support systems > - knowledge that government and other larger systems > will be able to provide supplies and support > > How do we do that by September 30, 1999? > (A date that I have arbitrarily chosen) > > The only way that I can see to do that is through a massive > public education campaign, utilizing all available media, talk > shows, print, email, fax, everything, and utilizing prominent > persons, such as El Eastman, Mayor of Toronto, other public > figures and every other resource that can be mustered. > > Teach people how to store up a supply of water and one month > supply of foodstuffs that do not need cooking and two month > supply of medications and to get two plastic buckets for > toilets, one wet, one dry, or plastic baggies and how to use > them. What do you do with the waste? > > Encourage people to test these ideas before Year 2000 arrives. > Answer people's questions. > > Build some sort of communal organization in every high-rise > and on every block in the City. > > Inform people exactly what services governments would be able > to provide in the event of electrical service disruption. > I have heard the rumour that the Canadian Army reserve units > are preparing to truck water into Toronto neighbourhoods within > hours of a water service disruption. > > What about food? > > What about using schools and community centres as shelters for > those who cannot survive on their own? > > What about food price controls? > > All this info would not only need to be available by Sept 30, > it would need to be understood by the majority of people. > > >5. Who is responsible for ensuring the survival of Canadians? > > The Government of Canada was criticized by the Auditor General > for doing nothing so they sent out a press release saying that > the Year 2000 issue is a "top priority". Can you eat a "top > priority?" They also set up a totally useless web page that > provides absolutely no information on how to survive or where > to get such information. > > The Government of Ontario has told me very clearly that this > is the responsibility of the City of Toronto. > > The report to City of Toronto Strategic Policies and Priorities > Committee, November 3, 1998, "Year 2000 Business Continuity > Plan", which is not available electronically, is now being > distributed to cities across Canada. > > That report is exactly what it says it is. It is a Year 2000 > Business Continuity Plan. It lays out the plan to ensure the > survival of the corporation of the City of Toronto. > > The Government of Canada has done nothing to ensure the > survival of its citizens. The Province of Ontario, as usual, > says it's the City's responsibility. And the City's plan is, > logically enough, to ensure it's own survival as a corporation. > > Who is responsible for ensuring the survival of the rest of us? > > > >6. What do we need to do? > > The first thing that I think that we need to do is to demand > that governments, municipal, provincial and federal, live up > to their contractual responsibilities to ensure the safety > and well-being of all Canadians. That is where we start! > > Secondly, we need to begin immediately to organize and prepare > in our own communities or neighbourhoods. There are thousands > of high-rise buildings in Toronto and thousands of > micro-neighbourhoods. We will need governments or government > funded resources to complete this monumental task in just a > few months. > > Finally, we each need to make our own personal preparations. > > > >7. Other comments. > > Disruptions due to Year 2000 problems, apparently, may occur > over the next few years. Food supplies could be disrupted > sporadically or possibly over an extended period of time. > > My guess is that if the supply of a food commodity, oranges > for example, was reduced by 10%, prices might rise by 50%. > If the supply was reduced by 50%, my guess is that the price > could increase 3-10 fold. My guess is that 40% of the > population of Toronto could not afford any significant price > increase. Thus, as disruption of food supplies is perhaps > the most likely consequence, I expect that whatever else > might happen, there will be increased poverty and hunger in > Toronto in the Year 2000. > > Apparently there are 40 billion embedded chips, whatever an > embedded chip is, in use today. And, various studies have > discovered a 5%-20% failure rate when tested for Year 2000 > compliance. > > The media portray the Millennium Bug as a computer problem. > Governments regard it as an administrative problem. > I see it as a human problem. > > >8. This is a draft document. I would appreciate your help to > make it better. [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > - What questions have I left out? > - What more needs to be said? > - Is it clear? > - Style, could it be arranged or written better? > > Thank you......!!!!! > ............................................. > Bob Olsen, Toronto [EMAIL PROTECTED] > ............................................. The Maybe Future We all stayed up on New Years Eve, not knowing what to expect as all the major networks assured us that even though there may be some disruptions, Civilization as we know it in Canada would continue, though there might be some consequences. It was quite exciting and as we waited, I reviewed the preparations I had made, we had candles, firewood for the fireplace, a couple of weeks of food, the deep freezer was fairly full, I had blankets and winter clothes - even extras that I had picked up at Value Village. I had a set of tools, an axe, a shovel, sockets and wrenches etc and my expectations were probably fairly hopeful, that though there might be some disruptions, it would only be temporary. My 83 year mother and 77 Aunt lived about a mile away in a modern house in the suburbs, we lived in a townhouse complex about one half mile from the Ottawa river, close to the greenbelt that separated Ottawa proper from Orleans. Mother and Aunt Min had been raised on a farm in Alberta in the homestead years and old as they were, they were still active and had memories of skills of pioneer living - while to a lesser degree, so did I and I had experienced cold and isolation and some hardship from my many years of working construction up North. Now, I would be 60 with two daughters aged 8 and 11, their mother working away from home in California. At 12:02, the lights went out! we waited, the fire in the fireplace creating a cheerful cozy atmosphere, the outside temperature was 25 below and a light snow, we laughed and giggled as we ate some fast food snacks and prepared for bed. I was worried about the water freezing in the pipes and shut off the water and tried to drain the system. We could already feel the house cooling down and I suggested we all bring our blankets into the living room and sleep on the floor near the fireplace. I thought of phoning mom - no phone. About 3 pm, we all fell asleep, two cats, one dog, a dad and two kids. I had dampened down the fireplace and I had brought in lots of wood which I had stacked in the dining room, knowing that only dry wood burns and produces good heat. We woke up in the morning and the house was cold, even the living room was chilly and I set about nailing up blankets so that we effectively moved into the living room and the rest of the house was isolated so none of our heat would go there. Already, there was ice in the toilet. We went to the bathroom in a pail, which I would empty outside later in the day and then I had the kids dress in layered clothing to prevent heat loss. I knew wood would go fast at this temperature and so I wanted to get us all used to a house of about 60F rather than the 72F we were used too. Breakfast, milk and cereal this morning and then listening to the battery powered radio, we heard that all power grids in Ontario had collapsed and crews were working to try and restore power. It was cold outside with a brisk North Wind, I walked the dog and talked to a couple of neighbours also out with there pets. We all were in good spirits, and talked of our experiences, expecting that problems would be solved and that we just had to get through several days. I left the kids and walked a mile to my mothers place and found them chilly but cheerful. I nailed blankets up to isolate the living room and kitchen and made sure they had plenty of firewood. They had a propane campstove to cook on and suggested I bring the kids over later for a meal. I agreed. There was some automobile traffic but most were doing what I was doing, isolating a small portion of the house and trying to keep it warm. Water - we take it for granted - turn on the tap, out it comes. No water, of course we all had containers filled but it took only a few uses to realize that it would go quickly. I felt fortunate that we were close to the river and I did a trial run in the afternoon, going down to the river to get a five gallon container filled. It was much more difficult than I would have thought, the kids came along and we had a toboggan but it still was hard physical work breaking a trail through through fresh snow, trying to get the container filled without getting wet or falling through ice and then on the way back, the kids were tired and cold. As I stood in the living room, I realized how time consuming it had been to get about 4 gallons of fresh water home. We listened to the radio and were told not to go to work or school, stay home and conserve food and heat, some problems had been fixed but there were still major problems, especially with the nuclear plants which had been shut down as a precautionary measure and now they wouldn't start. By day two, I realized that we should move over to Mothers to conserve heat and food and to help them. We started loading the toboggan with our food and water supply and I made two trips on day two, Mom and Min did the cooking and looked after the girls. Went to bed exhausted. Next morning, I found out that my wood supply had been raided and I had lost about a cord of wood I had stockpiled. It was to be expected I guess, people cannot freeze when wood is just lying there. I noticed a few neighbours had went down to the river for water and a couple were coming back with some deadwood they had gathered. It was still cold and we were warned on the radio that we could expect perhaps a foot of snow tonight - apparently the weather satellites were still working. We were now, four dogs - my mom and aunt had three, two cats and two girls, two elderly and me. We had about a month's supply of food, I estimated, maybe a few weeks of fuel, a few weeks of propane. We were all jammed into about 400 sq ft and cleanliness was already going out the window. Still no good news except the government, the army and all the technical people at the utilities were working night and day to get something up and running. I wondered who was looking after their families. Day 4, a request from a neighbour who had burned up most of his wood and had tried to heat his whole house - did we have any extra wood? What to do, to give him wood lessened our long term survival chances and I had young and elderly to look after. I offered to go out with him and scrounge a toboggan load of wood and help him get his house isolated to just the living room. It took most of the day. His wife was frantic as we nailed blankets and cardboard into the walls and his children looked scared. I gave him as much advice as I could. The storms over, it's warming up a bit. Still no electricity, no good news on the radio. We are slowly accepting the limitations of our situation, no entertainment, hard work and some discomfort. Neighbours are beginning to come out and groups are forming on the street as people talk about their situation and some of the solutions they have attempted. Everyone is still optimistic and there have been no personal crisises yet, no injuries, no frostbite, no hunger, but there is a feeling that we will soon need some assistance and the worrying fear that everyone in the Province is in the same boat, so who is going to help who? A few of us ask that we try and isolate our little Crescent area and hold a meeting to assess our little communities needs. Some are reluctant for fear they will be asked to share and some are desperate as they realize that their situation is more critical than they thought. The meeting is set up for tomorrow at 10 pm. Day 5 dawns cold and sunny. About 25 men and 15 women show up for the meeting. We share some information. Water is a problem for all of us, we all now realize that melting snow takes heat energy and is not a good solution. A few people have no cooking facilities as their campstoves had only a little propane which has been used up. A few have airtight wood heaters that can provide a stove top, but most of us relied on propane and there is no replacement. No stores have opened and there has been some looting, the police are still on the streets and we have seen a few army trucks. We are made aware that few people require medicine in the near future and two ex-military types offer to contact the Army and see what is available for help. We drift away, each lost in his own question, should I ask for help, should I share if others ask me for help. We are all facing the realization that the situation is not going to go back to "normal" like we had hoped. By January 7, and a few more meetings, we had decided to isolate our Crescent and set up common cooking areas, and common heated areas to conserve food and fuel. Some didn't like this idea and they stayed self sufficient. We heard of a family several blocks away that had frostbite problems and that there was a Dr. who had set up a little clinic a few streets away. That afternoon an individual came by from another street and said that a big meeting was being held for the suburbs on the north side of the freeway at the United Church for 10 pm tomorrow and could we sent a few people. The army was going to be there to give us an update. We all were getting worried, food was going much faster than we thought it would, families were under incredible stress and there was major tensions about food and water resources. The meeting was chaired by a harried looking Major. About 200 men and women filled the cold Church, there was no way to heat it. We represented, I would guess about 10,000 men women and children. Because we were in an upscale area most of the men and women were in their 30's and 40's and there were many who had children. The Major brought us to order. Things are bad in Ottawa where the population densities are very high and very few resources, we should organize some security for those who may try and come to the suburbs to loot. There was no good news about electricity, though there was some possibility the that old Hydro Electric Plant built by the Eddy Company could be taken out of the grid and brought back on line as it had old pre computer technology still working. However, it would only supply about half of Ottawa's basic needs and we probably wouldn't benefit out in Orleans. Neighbourhoods had been organizing and there was some rudimentary distribution of food and medicine but the Army had to watch their own petroleum supplies. Basically, it came down too, we were on our own for the foreseeable future, organize, share, and conserve food and energy. Feb 1st, after a month of extreme winter weather, our nice clean suburbia has changed. Over half the men and many teenagers are on permanent wood detail, traveling further and further afield. Most wooden fences are gone, many porches and garages have been sacrificed to the urgency of heat. People are grouping in houses at about 10 - 12 people per house and only using one floor. Dirt is everywhere, it smells, people get irritable. There have been a number of deaths and some serious injuries - its been quite a shock for many to see a dead person. Streets and roads have been replaced by trails. Infrastructure is being cannibalized, telephone and electric poles have been used for wood, cars have been stripped of batteries. Our food supply is critical, though there have been a couple of drops from Army convoys which have been scouring farms for dead animals, grain and corn storage. The idea of eating for taste has disappeared, community kitchens provide a basic soup or stew. Some clothing is getting in short supply like winter boots and gloves. Some of the women have been teaching the girls to knit, sew and mend. Most houses are deserted, furniture used for fuel, ransacked for anything of survival value. We still have radio and some of our engineers have a blacksmith shop working and a way to charge batteries. No major city in North America has got it's electricity back. Spare parts, critical personnel who have had to return to their families, even desertions from Army units have reduced our ability to repair the electrical grid. There are a few small communities that have gotten electricity back and Ottawa is about 25% electrified but it is severely rationed for government and Army needs. Water is still a critical problem and a large number of men and women spend their days wearily plodding down to the river and back to get water. Two months to spring and then what? We hold a council. We need to go out to the farms and see if we can get more food. We need to make an alliance with some farmers to help them plant crops so we will have food in the summer. We realize that we need to disperse our population, we have used up almost everything of value, 10,000 people do a lot of damage to a small area. Small groups are organized and start out to build these liaisons. For most, we continue the daily, dreary round of survival chores and watch the cold days of February go by. Groups return, having found farms that are abandoned or farmers who are willing to allow groupings on their farms. They, we find, realize that they need muscle labour as there is no fuel - we have went back two hundred years. Famine is a possibility, we have to make it to spring and we have to get something planted so we can eat and in our future, there is another winter looming. The government has asked for certain skill sets, they are still trying to get a core area of technological civilization going. We donate quite a few men and women as we are an educated technological elite. Between those leaving for farms and the government, we are not stressing the life support so much, though people leaving have the right to their share of our common resources. The radio tells us of others, some have reverted to barbarism, some are experiencing famine and death and disease, others are coping but everyone is short of something. There is no trade yet, we are eating the body fat of our civilization to survive this first winter. This is our reality, the days of a job, a paycheck, schools, a clean house, tasty food are a distant memory as the immediacy of our needs drives our interests. There are no more police patrols, the supermarkets are empty gutted barns, houses have been torn down for heating material. A sort of tribal council government is starting to emerge as certain people become the natural leaders and are asked to make decisions. Tribal role models of labour are reasserting themselves, children are working, women are responsible for home and hearth and food, men do the backbreaking work. We are all skinny, dirty, and fearful. The survival line is thin, the odd pet ends up in the stew pot. We have learned civilization is a fragile thing. It was not petroleum that was the critical resource, it was electricity - specifically, it was the electrical grid of interlocking generating plants of various types creating a common pool of energy that could be distributed and reconverted into heat, light and mechanical energy. That mechanical energy provided us with the tools to saw wood, build roads, create entertainment. With it gone - it was back to muscle power. The criteria for life became 3000 calories a day, anything that was edible was eaten. Life was not fun. It was one desperate solution to another trying to gain another day until summer came, the chance to slow down and begin to prepare for another year. Yes, we could rebuild, but it was going to be different. The 20th Century was gone - it would never return. The future would be different. Values had drastically changed. Words like neo con or elections and political parties were as obsolete as words like priesthood or nobility. The 21st Century would rebuild and this Century would find it's own place and judgment in man's history. Is this our future? Respectfully, Thomas Lunde
