FYI. Sorry for dupes
NEW CENTURY TO BE MARKED BY GROWING
THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES
The bright promise of a new century is clouded by unprecedented threats to
the
stability of the natural world, according to a special millennial edition
of the
State of the World report, released by the Worldwatch Institute today.
"In a globally interconnected economy, rapid deforestation, falling water
tables, and accelerating climate change could undermine economies around
the
world in the decades ahead," said Lester Brown and Christopher Flavin, lead
authors of the new report.
During the past century, world population grew by more than 4 billion-three
times the number of people when the century began. At the same time, the
use of
energy and raw materials grew more than ten times.
"These trends cannot continue for many more years," said the authors. "As
the
21st century approaches, the big question is whether we can muster the
ingenuity
to change-and do so rapidly enough to stave off environmentally-based
economic
decline. The one thing we can say for sure is that the 21st century will
be as
different from the 20th as that one was from the 19th."
The 20th century began with extraordinary optimism. Major advances such as
widespread electric lighting and the emancipation of women were widely
predicted, but many other developments, such as air travel and the
birth-control
pill, were not. The darkest developments of the 20th century, including
two
world wars and more than a billion people living in poverty, were
completely
unexpected.
Today, at the dawn of a new century, faith in technology and human progress
are
as common as they were a century ago. In their fascination with
information
technologies, many of today's economic thinkers seem to have forgotten that
our
modern civilization, like its forerunners, is entirely dependent on its
ecological foundations-foundations that the economy is now eroding.
Since our emergence as a species, human societies have continually run up
against local environmental limits that have caused them to collapse, as
local
forests and cropland were overstressed. But the advances in technology
that
have allowed us to surmount these local limits have transferred the problem
of
environmental limits to the global level, where human activities now
threaten
planetary systems. Among the problems we now face:
* World energy needs are projected to double in the next several decades,
but no
credible geologist foresees a doubling of world oil production, which is
projected to peak within the next few decades.
* While protein demands are projected to also double in the century ahead,
no
respected marine biologist expects the oceanic fish catch, which has
plateaued
over the last decade, to double. The world's oceans are being pushed beyond
the
breaking point, due to a lethal combination of pollution and
over-exploitation.
Eleven of the 15 most important oceanic fisheries and 70 percent of the
major
fish species are now fully or over-exploited, according to experts. And
more
than half the world's coral reefs are now sick or dying.
* Growing stress can also be seen in the world's woodlands, where the
clearing
of tropical forests has contributed recently to unprecedented fires across
large
areas of Southeast Asia, the Amazon, and Central America. In Indonesia
alone,
1,100 airline flights were canceled, and billions of dollars of income were
lost.
* Environmental deterioration is taking a growing toll on a wide range of
living
organisms. Of the 242,000 plant species surveyed by the World Conservation
Union in 1997, some 33,000, or 14 percent, are threatened with
extinction-mainly
as a result of massive land clearing for housing, roads, and industries.
This
mass extinction is projected to disrupt nature's ability to provide
essential
ecosystem services, ranging from pollination to flood control.
* The atmosphere is also under assault. The billions of tons of carbon
that
have been released since the Industrial Revolution have pushed atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide to their highest level in 160,000 years-a
level
that continues to rise each year. As scientists predicted, temperatures
are
rising along with the concentration of carbon dioxide. The latest jump in
1998
left the global temperature at its highest level since record-keeping began
in
the mid-19th century. Higher temperatures are projected to threaten food
supplies in the next century, while more severe storms cause economic
damage,
and rising seas inundate coastal cities.
* The early costs of climate change may already be evident: weather-related
economic damages of $89 billion in 1998 exceeded losses for the decade of
the
1980s. In Central America, 11,000 people were killed by Hurricane Mitch,
and
Honduras suffered losses equivalent to one-third of its annual GDP.
* Human societies may also face growing stress in the new century. In
Africa,
for example, where populations have doubled in the last three decades,
economic
growth is already failing to keep up with human needs. Several African
countries, including Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, where 20-25 percent of
the
adult population is now HIV-positive, are expected to lose one-fifth or
more of
their people within the next few decades. This could undermine their
societies
in the same way the plague did those of Europe in the Middle Ages.
"Our analysis shows that we are entering a new century with an economy that
cannot take us where we want to go," said Worldwatch President Lester
Brown.
"Satisfying the projected needs of 8 billion or more people with the
economy we
now have is simply not possible. The western industrial model-the
fossil-fuel-based, automobile-centered, throwaway economy that so
dramatically
raised living standards in this century-is in trouble."
The shift to an environmentally sustainable economy may be as profound a
transition as the Industrial Revolution. But just as our
great-grandparents
were able to change a century ago, so must we be ready to change again. In
fact, the broad outlines of a sustainable economic system that can meet the
human needs of the next century are beginning to emerge.
The foundation of such a system is a new design principle-one that shifts
from
the one-time depletion of natural resources to an economy that is based on
renewable energy and that continually reuses and recycles materials. A
sustainable economy will be a solar-powered, bicycle/rail-based,
reuse/recycle
economy, one that uses energy, water, land, and materials much more
efficiently
and wisely than we do today.
Defenders of today's industries point to the costs of environmental
protection.
But reversing the environmental deterioration that has marked the 20th
century
is hardly a luxury. Archaeologists study the remains of civilizations that
undermined their ecological support systems. The Fertile Crescent, where
agriculture emerged over ten millennia ago, was turned into a virtual
desert by
ancient farmers and herders-and even today, supports only a small
population.
These societies found themselves on a growth path that was environmentally
unsustainable-and were not able to make the economic adjustments needed to
avoid
a collapse. Unfortunately, the records do not tell us whether these
civilizations did not understand the need for change, or whether they saw
the
problem but could not agree on the steps needed to stave off economic
decline.
Today, the adjustments we must make are clear. The question is whether we
can
make them in time.
Building an environmentally sustainable world economy depends on a
cooperative
global effort. No country acting alone can protect the diversity of life
on
Earth or the health of oceanic fisheries. So far, national governments
have
largely failed to effectively implement the last decade's landmark
environmental
treaties-on climate change and biodiversity. One of the big challenges of
the
early 21st century will be to fulfill their ambitious promises to stabilize
the
climate and slow the destruction of species.
In the absence of a concerted effort by the wealthy to address the problems
of
poverty and deprivation, building a sustainable future may not be possible.
Growing poverty, and the political and economic chaos that can be provoked
by
it, reverberate around the world, as was seen in 1998 with the Asian
economic
meltdown, which pushed tens of millions of people below the poverty line in
just
a few months. Meeting the needs of the more than 1 billion people now in
poverty is essential to making the transition to an environmentally
sustainable
world economy.
"One question facing humanity as the new century approaches is whether we
can
find a new understanding and values that will support a restructuring of
the
global economy," said author Christopher Flavin. "Although such a
transformation may seem farfetched, the end-of-the-century perspective
offers
hope. Just as the 19th century was marked by the abolition of slavery and
the
20th century by a new international principle of human rights (adopted by
the
United Nations in 1948), the 21st century will require a new ethic of
sustainability that includes the need to live within our ecological means.
We
will need a new set of human responsibilities-to the natural world and to
future
generations-to go with our newfound human rights."
One key to reversing environmental degradation is to tax the activities
that
cause it, according to the report. By putting a price on these activities,
the
market can be harnessed to spur progress. If coal burning is taxed, solar
energy becomes more economically competitive. If auto emissions are taxed,
cleaner forms of transportation become more affordable.
The new German government, elected in October 1998, has embarked on the
world's
most ambitious environmental tax reform-reducing taxes on wages by 2.4
percent,
while raising energy taxes by an identical amount. This is a landmark step
that
will push Europe's largest economy in an environmentally sustainable
direction.
In the last decade of the 20th century, Europe is also leading the way in
some
of the industries that are the foundations of a solar economy. Europe has
added
5,000 megawatts of wind power in the last 5 years, for example, half of it
in
Germany, where the northernmost state of Schleswig-Holstein gets 15 percent
of
its electricity from the wind. Wind power, now one of Europe's fastest
growing
manufacturing industries, employs thousands of workers.
Sales of other new energy technologies are soaring as well. The production
of
solar photovoltaic cells has doubled in the last five years, propelled in
part
by the Japanese government's efforts to promote solar rooftops as a
standard
option for new suburban homes. Fuel cells, which turn hydrogen into
electricity with water the only byproduct, are meanwhile being spurred by
billions of dollars of investment capital, as companies pursue them as a
replacement for everything from the coal-fired power plant to the internal
combustion engine.
The effort to replace today's unsustainable economy with one that is suited
to
the demands of the 21st century will create some of the new century's
largest
investment opportunities. Bill Ford, the incoming Chairman of the Ford
Motor
Company, has plans to increase his company's profits by replacing the
internal
combustion engine that was at the center of his great-grandfather's
success.
"Smart companies will get ahead of the wave," says Ford. "Those that don't
will
be wiped out."
The challenge now is to mobilize public support for a fundamental economic
transformation-a shift to a 21st century economy that is far less resource
intensive and polluting, yet even more productive than today's.
"No challenge is greater, or more satisfying, than building an
environmentally
sustainable global economy, one where economic and social progress can
continue,
not only in the 21st century, but for many centuries beyond," the authors
conclude.
-END-
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2. Ordering State of the World 1999
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