From: Caspar Davis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>I believe that a much more satisfying life is possible by substituting
>friends, community, conversation and caring for stuff. I largely
If we don't follow Caspar's advise, there may not be ANY life a hundred
years from now -- let alone "satisfying life". This is the subject of my
next newsletter.
With respect to simulation, I am surprised that no one mentioned the most
famous simulation of all: The Club of Rome 1972: LIMITS TO GROWTH
In 1992, Meadows published an update to the original work. Here is a
composite graph: http://dieoff.com/Yourhere.gif
"Business as usual" scenario from BEYOND THE LIMITS:
"In Scenario 1 the world society proceeds along its historical path as long
as possible without major policy change. Technology advances in agriculture,
industry, and social services according to established patterns. There is no
extraordinary effort to abate pollution or conserve resources. The simulated
world tries to bring all people through the demographic transition and into
an industrial and then post-industrial economy. This world acquires
widespread health care and birth control as the service sector grows; it
applies more agricultural inputs and gets higher yields as the agricultural
sector grows; it emits more pollutants and demands more nonrenewable
resources as the industrial sector grows.
"The global population in Scenario 1 rises from 1.6 billion in the simulated
year 1900 to over 5 billion in the simulated year 1990 and over 6 billion in
the year 2000. Total industrial output expands by a factor of 20 between
1900 and 1990. Between 1900 and 1990 only 20% of the earth's total stock of
nonrenewable resources is used; 80% of these resources remain in 1990.
Pollution in that simulated year has just begun to rise noticeably. Average
consumer goods per capita in 1990 is at a value of 1968-$260 per person per
year—a useful number to remember for comparison in future runs. Life
expectancy is increasing, services and goods per capita are increasing, food
production is increasing. But major changes are just ahead.
"In this scenario the growth of the economy stops and reverses because of a
combination of limits. Just after the simulated year 2000 pollution rises
high enough to begin to affect seriously the fertility of the land. (This
could happen in the 'real world' through contamination by heavy metals or
persistent chemicals, through climate change, or through increased levels of
ultraviolet radiation from a diminished ozone layer.) Land fertility has
declined a total of only 5% between 1970 and 2000, but it is degrading at
4.5% per year in 2010 and 12% per year in 2040. At the same time land
erosion increases. Total food production begins to fall after 2015. That
causes the economy to shift more investment into the agriculture sector to
maintain output. But agriculture has to compete for investment with a
resource sector that is also beginning to sense some limits.
"In 1990 the nonrenewable resources remaining in the ground would have
lasted 110 years at the 1990 consumption rates. No serious resource limits
were in evidence. But by 2020 the remaining resources constituted only a
30-year supply. Why did this shortage arise so fast? Because exponential
growth increases consumption and lowers resources. Between 1990 and 2020
population increases by 50% and industrial output grows by 85%. The
nonrenewable resource use rate doubles. During the first two decades of the
simulated twenty-first century, the rising population and industrial plant
in Scenario 1 use as many nonrenewable resources as the global economy used
in the entire century before. So many resources are used that much more
capital and energy are required to find, extract, and refine what remains.
"As both food and nonrenewable resources become harder to obtain in this
simulated world, capital is diverted to producing more of them. That leaves
less output to be invested in basic capital growth.
"Finally investment cannot keep up with depreciation (this is physical
investment and depreciation, not monetary). The economy cannot stop putting
its capital into the agriculture and resource sectors; if it did the
scarcity of food, materials, and fuels would restrict production still more.
So the industrial capital plant begins to decline, taking with it the
service and agricultural sectors, which have become dependent upon
industrial inputs. For a short time the situation is especially serious,
because the population keeps rising, due to the lags inherent in the age
structure and in the process of social adjustment. Finally population too
begins to decrease, as the death rate is driven upward by lack of food and
health services." [p.p.132-134, Meadows; See also
http://www.context.org/ICLIB/IC36/Gilman1.htm ]
Jay
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COMING SOON TO A LOCATION NEAR YOU!
http://dieoff.com/page1.htm
