FYI - > New York Times > > December 8, 1998 > > Will Humans Overwhelm the Earth? The Debate Goes on > > By MALCOLM W. BROWNE > > PHILADELPHIA -- Two hundred years ago the Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus, an > English economist and mathematician, anonymously published an essay > predicting that the world's burgeoning humanpopulation would overwhelm > the earth's capacity to feed it. > > Malthus' gloomy forecast, called "An Essay on the Principle of > Population As it Affects the Future Improvement of Society," was > condemned by Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels and many other theorists, and > it was still striking sparks last week at a meeting in Philadelphia of > the American Anthropological Society. Despite continuing controversy, it > was clear that Malthus' conjectures are far from dead. > > Among the scores of special conferences organized for the 5,000 > participating anthropologists, many touched directly or indirectly on > the dilemma suggested by Malthus: Although global food supplies increase > arithmetically, the population increases geometrically -- a vastly > faster rate. > > The consequence, Malthus believed, was that poverty, and the misery it > imposes, will inevitably increase unless the increase in population is > curbed. > > This contention has prompted endless debate. Malthus' critics have > argued that man's ingenuity will always keep pace with population growth > by finding improved ways to produce food. They cite the success of the > "Green Revolution" launched in the 1950s and 1960s by Dr. Norman Borlaug > and his associates in developing high-yield strains of rice and wheat. > > But the scientific descendants of Malthus argue that feeding the world's > masses is only part of the problem. Just as dangerous, they contend, is > the omnivorous consumption of nonrenewable resources, the irreversible > destruction of habitats and species, the fouling of the air and seas and > consequent changes in climate, and many other effects of a growing human > horde. > > One of the symposiums held at last week's meeting was regarded as so > contentious that a similar conference was banned from the 1994 meeting > of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, on the > grounds -- said its organizer, Dr. Warren Hern, a Colorado physician and > epidemiologist -- that "you may not ask that question." > > The question, posed as the title of the symposium, was this: "Is the > Human Species a Cancer on the Planet?" > > Hern, the director of an abortion clinic in Boulder, Colo., noticed > nearly a decade ago that aerial and satellite views of urban centers > taken over a period of years bore a striking similarity to images of > cancerous tissue -- particularly melanoma -- invading the healthy > surrounding tissue. > > In his presentation last week, Hern argued that in many parts of the > world the increase in human numbers is rapid and uncontrolled, that it > invades and destroys habitats, and that by killing off many species it > reduces the differentiation of nature. All of these features are > characteristic of cancerous tumors, he said. > > This assessment was applauded by another member of the panel, Dr. Lynn > Margulis of the University of Massachusetts in Boston, who is the > co-author of another highly debated theory, the Gaia Hypothesis. > > The hypothesis, the brainchild of an English theorist, Dr. James > Lovelock and Dr. Margulis, who is a microbiologist, is that the earth > deploys feedback mechanisms to maintain an environment hospitable to > life. In this it resembles a gigantic living organism, proponents of the > Gaia idea believe. > > Life on earth has survived many crises, including mass extinctions > caused by the impacts of asteroids and comets, Dr. Margulis said, and > life will continue despite the threats created by humanity -- but with > reduced diversity. > > She agreed with the notion that the human race is a kind of > self-destructive cancer. > > "For millions of years," she said, "the earth got along without human > beings, and it will do so again. The only question is the nature of the > human demise that has already begun." > > Dr. Margulis quoted a line from the German philosopher Friedrich > Nietzsche: "The earth is a beautiful place, but it has a pox called > man." > > A different but complementary perspective was offered by Dr. Compton > Tucker, a physical scientist at the National Aeronautics and Space > Administration's Goddard Space Center. Tucker is an analyst of images of > the earth made by Landsat and other orbiting spacecraft. In particular, > he keeps track of deforestation and other anthropogenic changes in the > global habitat. > > "In many regions, we've seen astonishingly rapid change since 1975," he > said. "Vast tracts of both rain forest and dry tropical forest have > disappeared in the Amazon Basin as human communities expand and clear > the land for cattle ranching. This has led to a monoculture dominated by > cattle breeding, with losses of immense numbers of the species deprived > of forest habitat." > > Several speakers cited U.N. statistics indicating that population growth > rates in underdeveloped countries averaged only 1.77 percent per year > between 1990 and 1995. The expectation for that period had been for a > growth rate of 1.88 percent. > > But since 1930, when the world population was about 2 billion, the > population has nearly tripled, and each doubling of the population has > occurred in a much shorter time than the previous doubling period. The > U.N. report projected that the world population could reach 9.4 billion > by 2050. > > Demographers say that the population increase has leveled off in China, > where the government limits family size, and that the rate of population > increase has declined in Bangladesh and other populous countries. > > But recent U.N. statistics identified 28 countries -- 20 of them in > Africa -- where fertility rates increased during the past decade. Among > the countries was the United States, which has the third-largest > population after China and India, and where the fertility rate increased > from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent, largely because of Hispanic > immigration. > > All the speakers at the symposium had expected vigorous criticism from > the audience of anthropologists, but were surprised to encounter few > strongly negative comments. > > "Arguments over the accuracy of Malthus' views, future population trends > and the earth's carrying capacity are never-ending and never resolved," > one speaker said. "Many people prefer to just forget about the big > questions involved, and get on with their lives." > > Population pressure is partly a question of perception, said Dr. Bernice > Kaplan, an anthropologist at Wayne State University. > > "I ask my students how they feel about being increasingly crowded by the > growing population, and they reply, 'We're not crowded,"' Dr. Kaplan > said. > > "That attitude results from being young and not having experienced the > changes old people have seen during their lives. Whatever environment > you're born into is the one that seems normal. > > "You don't seem to realize the problems created by population pressure > until you get old," she said, "and then nobody listens to you. We are a > species that doesn't respond to threats until it's too late." > > -----------------------------------------------------------------
