________________________________________________________ ******************************************************** GLOBAL FUTURES BULLETIN #82 ---15 Apr, 1999--- ISSN 1328-5157 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR). P.O. Box 263E, Earlville, QLD 4870, Australia. E-mail: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- This bulletin is for the use of IGFR members and GFB subscribers only and is not to be re-posted. ________________________________________________________ ******************************************************** * * INDEX . Cities, energy and nutrients . Energy scenarios, biomass and CO2 . Putting militarism squarely on the agenda . Prime drivers of the Kosovo/Serbia crisis * * CITIES, ENERGY AND NUTRIENTS Folke Gunther [1] A very interesting discussion on urban development has taken place in the GFB #79 and #80 by Peter Newman [2], Ted Trainer [3] and John McLaughlin [4], and in the editorial comments. In the discussions, however, some important issues have been overlooked: I. Energy dependence Urban structures are not only heavy users of energy, but it can also be argued that cities are a result of cheap energy availability [5]. The sustainability of a city is dependent on easily accessible energy. An increasing number of studies doubt that energy will remain easily accessible even in the close future [6]. The energy dependence is not only a function of personal transportation/urban sprawl, but also an increasing amount of energy used in the food system. A low estimate is that the food system requires ten times the energy in the food, probably more. The US food system reached that (in)efficiency around 1980 [7]. Since the average food energy needed to sustain a person is about 1,000 kWh/an, this means that the food related energy requirements of a person (10,000 kWh/an) are larger than those of transportation (3,500 kWh/an) or space heating/cooling (4,000 kWh/yr). Naturally, this correspondingly affects the vulnerability to energy availability of the different systems. Therefore, urban sprawl and urbanisation will only take place in a situation characterised by easily accessible energy. If a habitation system can be found that would diminish this energy dependency considerably, it would be much less vulnerable. II. Nutrient dependency When people live in a crowded area (conurbation) food cannot be produced locally for its inhabitants, but must be imported from a wide area. Nutrients, of which phosphorus is the scarcest in the support area, follow the food. Hence fertilisers must be supplied to the food growing area, and they are accumulated in the urban area, or lost into seas or lakes. To my knowledge, there are no cities that maintain a circulation of nutrients to the supporting area, but all have a net import or throughput of nutrients. This situation has several complications. First, there is a support/pollution problem. The time-horizon for availability of phosphorus for nutrient production (at current energy prices) is 100 - 150 years. Secondly, phosphorus (and nitrogen) compounds are serious water pollutants. To avoid the pollution problem, an increasing part of the cities have installed wastewater plants. If phosphorus is not let out of the area, it will accumulate there, mainly as sludge from the plants. The sludge is deposited in the vicinity, either on landfills or on local agriculture. By this, the accumulation in the area will go on. However, when an increasing amount of nutrients is accumulated in the area, the non-point leakage will increase. After some time, the total leakage will amount to a substantial part of the import. The end result is depletion in one end and pollution in the other. This is what I call a HEAP-trap (Hampered Effluent Accumulation Processes) [8]. It is clearly an unsustainable conduct. Therefore, urban sprawl and urbanisation will only take place in a situation characterised by easily accessible energy and easily accessible nutrients, especially phosphorus. The only way to avoid this problem is to develop a local food production system that also can re-use the nutrients. The less the access to cheap energy and nutrients, the closer must the loop be. If long-time survival is the issue, local, mainly self-supporting communities must replace the large conurbations. Started soon, the process (which I call 'ruralisation') need not necessarily be very fast. * [1] Folke Gunther, disserting at Department of Systems Ecology, NMR, Stockholm University, Sweden (Ecological Adaptation of Human Settlements). Lecturer in Division of Human Ecology, Lund University, Sweden. URL:http://www.etn.lu.se/~folke_g/folkegsv.htm (sorry, mostly in Swedish) E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [2] Newman, Peter 'Cities and Smart Growth' Global Futures Bulletin #79 01 Mar, 1999 [3] Trainer, Ted 'Smart Growth' Global Futures Bulletin #80 15 Mar, 1999 [4] McLaughlin, John Impact of the Net on Urban Planning/Transport Global Futures Bulletin #80 15 Mar, 1999 [5] A diagram showing the development if cities compared to the global energy use can be found (in an article in Swedish) at http://www.etn.lu.se/~folke_g/RURSV2.HTM [6] http://hubbert.mines.edu/ ; http://dieoff.org/page1.htm ; Campbell, C. J., 1997. The Coming Oil Crisis. Multi-Science Publishing Company / Petroconsultants S.A.; Campbell, C. J. and J. H. Laherrere, 1998. The End of Cheap Oil. Scientific American, 3: 78-83 [7] Hall, C.A.S., C.J.Cleveland and R.Kaufmann, 1986. Energy and Resource Quality. Wiley Interscience, New York. [8] Gunther, F., 1997. Hampered Effluent Accumulation Processes: Phosphorus Management and Societal Structure. Ecological Economics, 21, 159-174. Elsevier * * COMMENT Peter Newman argues that by redesigning cities away from auto dependence, and by increasing density around public transit, energy use can be reduced by a factor of 10 or more (GFB #80) [1]. It is fairly likely that energy will become more expensive, particularly around 2010-2020, but by no means certain. It depends on many factors including efforts toward energy conservation and investment in renewables, as well as unpredictable technological breakthroughs. However, it would be wise to follow the 'no regrets' precautionary principle and plan for possible energy scarcity in the future. If 'ruralisation' implies decentralisation of populations, would this not likely result in an increase in transport/energy consumption ? It may be that 'ruralisation' implies the development of dense communities of a smaller size (eg 100-500,000 people ?) which can be supported by the immediate hinterland, yet large enough to support a viable economy. How difficult and expensive would it be to process sewage and compost back into fertiliser and return it to growing regions ? These costs are currently externalities and may need to be factored into food prices. It could make imported foods expensive and prejudice food exporters in developing economies. * [1] Newman, Peter 'Cities that reduce resource use and waste' Global Futures Bulletin #80 01 Apr 99 * {18. urban development; 4. energy } * * * ENERGY SCENARIOS, BIOMASS AND CO2 Many people use biomass in developing countries as a source of fuel - such as wood and cow dung. While theoretically, this fuel does not add to CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, because it is reabsorbed by the new vegetation, in practice, much of that vegetation is not being replaced as fast as wood is being collected. Cooking in this way also results in serious health problems - respiratory and eye disease in particular. Ethanol programs such as in Brazil and Zimbabwe, which substitute petrol/oil consumption, have been relatively successful but have been undermined by the falling price of oil, from US$35/barrel in 1982, to US$15 in 1998. A carbon tax would no doubt make such programs more economically feasible. It is surprising that ethanol is not economically competitive in parts of Europe where petrol sells for more than US$1 per litre. It could be argued that the US, by resisting taxes on oil, is exacerbating the prospect of a significant oil shock. Price of petrol (gasoline) for 1997 US$ [1] Australia 0.50 Canada 0.41 France 1.07 Germany 0.97 India 0.72 Japan 0.81 Netherlands 1.21 Norway 1.28 UK 1.23 US 0.36 It is surprising that the International Energy Agency projects a growing world consumption for oil to 2020 [2]: Mtoe/an (Million tonnes of oil equivalent per annum) 1995 3,400 2010 4,450 2020 5,250 However the IEA's World Energy Outlook 1998 also presents new findings which project conventional oil production to peak during the period 2010-2020 [3]. The anomaly represents the difference between projected demand and projected supply. Depending on how well other energy sources can make up the supply shortfall, as well as the achievable magnitude of energy conservation measures, and the ability to plan now to avoid a supply shortfall, we may see an energy crisis around 2015-2030. Current energy consumption estimates % of total Yoda etal(1990)[4] IEA (1995) [5] Raskin et al [6] oil 39.8 40.4 37 coal 27.3 27.1 25 gas 22.6 22.9 19 nuclear 3.7 6 7 hydro 6.8 3 2 renew** 0.04 0.6 11 total 7915 Mtoe 8300 Mtoe 9170 Mtoe Notes: Disparity in current estimates highlighting need to treat statistics tentatively since different studies use different conversion rates from primary energy to final energy use, amongst other variables. Disparity in % current renewable energy use - 0.04%, 0.6% and 11% ! Could it be that Raskin et al are including biomass use (wood fuel and dung) omitted by other data sources ? (justifiable). Disparity in % current hydro and nuclear energy use. Energy projections - % of total Mtoe. [7] IEA; [8],[9] Nitta/Yoda 2020 [7] 2050 [8] 2100 [9] oil 38.3 18.2 1.5 coal* 28.7 29.6 28.2 gas 25.2 11.4 neg nuclear 4.4 24.7 50.4 hydro 2.6 14.2 11.5 renew** 0.8 1.9 8.4 total 13,700 Mtoe 17,280 Mtoe 25,750 Mtoe Energy projections (continued)- % of total Mtoe. [10] Raskin et al GSG. bu - Business as Usual; pr - Policy Reform 2025bu 2025pr 2050bu 2050pr oil 38 33 36 26 coal 25 20 24 11 gas 20 28 22 36 nuclear 6 4 7 neg hydro 2 3 2 3 renew** 9 12 9 25 total 16,150 Mtoe 13,350 Mtoe 22,200 Mtoe 14,300 * for [7] includes combustible renewables and waste for OECD. It seems inappropriate that 'combustible renewables' (biomass?) is lumped in with coal ! ** renewables, includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide etc Notes: The Nitta/Yoda study suggests an energy consumption range of 1997 9,500 Mtoe 2050 12,500 - 23,000 Mtoe 2100 11,300 - 33,000 Mtoe The Nitta/Yoda study sees an essentially nuclear future (nuclear fusion). The massive use of coal conflicts with current CO2 emission stabilisation goals, although coal gasification technology would emit less CO2 than straight combustion. The Nitta/Yoda scenario conflicts with assessments of the nuclear industry by Flavin et al, noting that after a growth of 700% in the 1970s, 140% in the 1980s, it grew by just 5% in the 1990s. Currently at 340GWe world capacity, far less than the 4,500 GWe predicted by the IAEA predicted in 1974, nuclear energy generates about 17% of world electricity [11]. Currently there are 429 nuclear reactors in operation worldwide, with 33 under construction, though 14 of these may never be completed [12]. Energy plant production costs $US/kW installed capacity [13] nuclear energy $3,000-$4,000 gas-fired* $400-$600 wind $1,000 *new gas-fired combined cycle plants using jet engine technology The IEA projection suggests a diminishing dependence on nuclear and hydropower. CO2 output for fossil fuels [14] 1 Mtoe oil = 2.86 Mt CO2 1 Mtoe gas = 2.29 Mt CO2 1 Mtoe coal = 3.90 Mt CO2 Based on the above, even the most optimistic scenario presented here (Raskin et al, Policy Reform) results in 28,557 Mt CO2 /an, an increase of 25% over the current levels of 22,700 Mt CO2 [15] which are clearly inducing global warming and which are unsustainable. Yoda et al's low energy consumption scenario of 11,300 Mtoe would result in 12,400 Mt CO2/an, or possibly lower, using coal gasification (eg 7,280 Mt CO2/an), which is about equal to the 7,300 Mt CO2/an recommended by the IPCC in its Second Assessment Report: IPCC Recommendations Second Assessment Report [16] Mt Carbon Mt CO2 1995 6,000 22,000 2050 4,000 14,667 2100 2,000 7,334 But note, this is Yoda et al's low consumption scenario, and is an essentially 'nuclear scenario'. * [1] International Energy Agency (IEA) 1998 <http://www.iea.org/stats/files/keystats/stats/p_0505.htm> [2] IEA http://www.iea.org/stats/files/keystats/stats_98.htm 'outlook/by fuel' [3] IEA World Energy Outlook 1998 http://www.iea.org/energy.htm [4] Nitta et al op cit [5] IEA op cit <.../p_0701.htm> [6] Raskin et al op cit p117 [7] IEA op cit <.../p_0701.htm> [8] Nitta Y, Yoda S Technological Forecasting and Social Change 49, 1995 p184 cited in Global Futures Bulletin #37 'Energy projections' 01 Mar 1997 - based on conversion 1 Twh = 0.086 Mtoe plus 35% conversion rate oil-electricity. [9] Nitta et al op cit. [10] Raskin P, Gallopin G, et al 'Bending the Curve Toward Global Sustainability - Report to the Global Scenario Group' (1998) p117 http://www.gsg.org [11] Flavin, Christopher; Lenssen, Nicholas 'Nuclear power nears peak' News from the Worldwatch Institute, 05 Mar 1999 www.worldwatch.org/alerts/990304.html [12] Flavin et al op cit [13] Flavin et al op cit [14] based on IEA data, IEA op cit <.../p_0701.htm> and <.../p_0601.htm> [15] IEA op cit <.../p_0601.htm> [16] Global Futures Bulletin #3 'Global Warming and Energy' 01 Jan 1996 * {4. energy} * * * PUTTING MILITARISM SQUARELY ON THE AGENDA Felicity Hill, Madelaine Gilchrist [1] At each and every major UN world conference including: World Summit for Children, New York, 1990 Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro, 1992 World Conference on Human Rights, Vienna, 1993 International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 1994 World Summit for Social Development, Copenhagen, 1995 Fourth World Conference on Women, Beijing, 1995 Habitat II Summit, Istanbul, 1996 - a clear articulation of the global effect of militarism, military budgets and military priorities - an essential cross-cutting theme - has been strategically ignored. From the Forward Looking Strategies to the Platform for Action, a deterioration in the language, analysis and political will to put militarism on the agenda is evident in the debates and the text from the Women's Conferences. The upcoming review of the Conference on Women (Beijing +5) presents an opportunity to correct this. When only *one third* of current military spending is necessary to eradicate poverty, hunger and illiteracy as well as other urgent social and environmental programs [2], the complex issues of peace are highly relevant. Militarism, the arms trade, and the permanent war economy that in the late 90's drains US$780 billion per year from the global economy, contributes to the normalisation of violence, the cultural production of gender roles, poverty, and environmental degradation - clearly affecting every one of the 12 Critical Areas of Concern of the Platform For Action. By signing the Platform For Action the signatory governments committed to - * Para 143(a) 'Increase and hasten ...the conversion of military resources and related industries to development and peaceful purposes...' * Para 143b: 'Undertake to explore new ways of generating new public and private financial resources....through the appropriate reduction of excessive military expenditures.' * Para 349 '...Governments should reduce...excessive military expenditures and investments for arms production and acquisition.' It is interesting that the UN has never sponsored a world conference on Peace and Disarmament. UNCED in Rio 1992 marked the recognition of the inextricable link between environment and development. It is now time to mark the inextricable link between environment, development and disarmament. * [1] Madelaine Gilchrist, Canadian Voice of Women for Peace; Felicity Hill, Women's International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF) [2] see Global Futures Bulletin #15 01 July 98 'Military Budget Versus Sustainable Development' * {2. peace and conflict resolution; 34. world summits} * * * PRIME DRIVERS OF THE KOSOVO/SERBIA CRISIS The Kosovo/Serbia crisis is one of many current crises in the world, and in terms of human suffering, possibly not the worst (depending how crises are evaluated). However, it attracts special attention primarily because of the drastic involvement of NATO and possible implications for the global order. There are many perspectives on the Kosovo/Serbia Crisis including: - US/German (ie transnational capitalist) agenda for Balkans - Serbian nationalist agenda, Kosovo Serbian heartland, seaport - millennium-old history of ethnic rivalry and conflict - KLA-Albanian-Mafia drug connection - Islamic agenda - Iran - US securing global supremacy, Serbia a Russian ally in Europe, possible formation of a new coalition to counter US supremacy - Russia, China, Belarus, Serbia...Ukraine, Iraq...? - patriarchy - Serbian government, KLA, West attempting to solve problems through force, asserting their moral rectitude. - opportunities for US (and European) arms manufacturers, to replace and to boost sales in a less stable geopolitical environment - NATO's anniversary and need to demonstrate its raison d'etre - oil, gold and other minerals in northern Kosovo - Serbia threatens stability in NATO territory - European agenda - need to show resolve of NATO to deter future adventurism - stresses arising from disintegration of the Soviet empire and pressures of globalisation - Milosevich playing on historical cultural pain to divide ethnic communities and strengthen his grip on power - Russia positioning itself to be broker and receive new loans Some or all of the above drivers may be arguably valid. Perhaps only the combination of many of the above created the necessary volatile conditions. These drivers are likely also to be interlinked on many levels. The two prime drivers could be defined as patriarchy and ethnic rivalry [1]. In some circumstances a policy that could be ascribed to the patriarchal paradigm may be the most appropriate, but in general the patriarchal paradigm is outmoded, and we need to seek (and are seeking) alternatives. Ethnic rivalry and conflict can erupt in times of pressure - competition for space or resources and unclear precedents (eg shifting boundaries). Ethnic, cultural or national identity can fluctuate in intensity, passion and rigidity. Ethnic identity can be something very positive when located in the context of ethnic diversity, but negative when understood in terms of exclusivity, superiority or isolation. It is not enough to say that ethnic identity or national identity is mere chauvanism which we must rise above, because for the most part such a transition is likely to take many more generations (during which time we will be faced with many more conflicts), and because a healthy global worldview is probably built on an awareness and emotional acceptance of one's cultural origins, as well as a conscious response to it. We need to understand the many profiles of ethnic, cultural and national psyche (in all parts of the world). In many cases there are historical traumas which need to be addressed and healed before certain external manifestations of this trauma - antisocial traits such as bigotry, intolerance, insecurity, aggression, resentment, defensiveness etc can be worked on. How this can be achieved is a major open question [2]. This is not to say that all manifestations of antisocial behaviour by a particular group is deeply rooted in historical trauma. The analysis should not be taken too far. But clearly the Balkans, like the Middle East and Northern Ireland, along with many other regions of actual and potential ethnic conflict, must be understood from a macrohistorical perspective. * [1] The NATO/military-industrial agenda on the otherhand can be seen as opportunistic and relatively contemporary. Regarding this agenda, note corporate sponsorship of NATO 50th Summit, and increasing role of Pentagon as an international agent for US weapons industry (Pentagon has a 'Foreign Sales' office) - see Smart, Tim 'US Arms Makers Rely on Exports for Survival' International Herald Tribune 18 Feb 1999. [2] see Jenkins, Palden 'Healing the Hurts of Nations' http://www.isleofavalon.co.uk/palden.html * {2. peace and conflict resolution; 11. ethnic relations and multicivilisations} * * * CALENDAR 5-14 May 1999 17th Session of the Commission on Human Settlements, UN headquarters, Nairobi. Conference will address follow-up to Habitat II and Local Agenda 21, as well as: Habitat's support to urban governance; housing rights and security of tenure; water for African cities; urban poverty/cities for all; urban-rural synergies; state of the world's cities; cities and peace; World Bank/Habitat city initiatives. http://habitat.unchs.org/home.htm 3-6 June 1999 2nd Interdisciplinary Conference on the Evolution of World Order - 'Global and Local Responsibilities for a Just and Sustainable Civilisation' Ryerson Polytechnic University, Toronto, Canada email: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> http://www.pgs.ca/>http://www.pgs.ca/woc/ Newsletter 11-12 June 1999 Local Currency Conference '99. Creating a community currency can enable your community to attach a new type of monetary value to useful activity like: volunteer work, community service, work experience, training time, barter exchange of goods or services, starting a small business, and farming and gardening activity. It can encourage expansion of community assets, capitalise community strengths, store that value and transfer it. Over 1,800 local currency projects now operate in the US, Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia, Mexico and Brazil. Center for Community Futures http://www.cencomfut.com 23-26 June 1999 5th International Interdisciplinary Environmental Assn (IEA) conference, Baltimore, Maryland. http://champion.iupui.edu/~mreiter/iea.htm 30 June - 2 July General Assembly special session on follow-up to the Population Conference - ICPD UNGASS, New York http://www.un.org/News/devupdate/latest.htm 12-16 July 1999 International Simulations and Games Association conference (ISAGA 99) - 'Anticipating the Unexpected'. Sub-theme 'Futures Studies and Crisis/contingency/emergency management' University of Technology, Sydney http://www.education.uts.edu.au/ozsaga * * ________________________________________________________ ******************************************************** The Global Futures Bulletin is produced by the Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR) twice monthly. Readers are welcome to submit material such as succinct letters, articles and other useful information. Indicate whether you would like your name attached to the submitted material. All communications should be directed to the Editor, e-mail <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>. Copyright (c) 1998 Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR). All rights reserved. ________________________________________________________ ******************************************************** ******************************************************** ........................PUBLICATIONS OF THE MONTH.......................... ******************************************************** 'Millennium - Rendezvous with the Future' (1998) 166 pages Eds. Carlos Hernandez and Rashmi Mayur Includes essays by Alvin Toffler on the psychology of the future, Lester R. Brown on the urgent global need to raise grain yields, Maurice F. Strong on the passage from Rio, and Hazel Henderson on social capital and economic development. AUD$29 inc post, US$14 inc post, UKPnd 10 inc post. Add US$3 for post for orders outside Australia, US/Canada or UK. ******************************************************** 'The Global Commons: an Introduction' (1998) Susan J Buck 240 pages tables, figures, glossary, index. Vast areas of valuable resources unfettered by legal rights have, for centuries, been the central target of human exploitation and appropriation. The global commons: - Antarctica, - the high seas and deep seabed minerals, - the atmosphere, and - space ...have remained exceptions only because access has been difficult or impossible, and the technology for successful extraction has been lacking. New technologies that facilitate access means that management regimes are needed to guide human use of these important resource domains. Includes historical underpinnings of international law, examines the stakeholders involved, and discusses current policy and problems associated with it. Applies key analytical concepts drawn from institutional analysis and regime theory to examine how legal and political concerns have affected the evolution of management regimes for the global commons. Includes in-depth case studies of each of the four regimes. AUD$55 inc post, US$29 inc post, UKPnd 23 inc post. Add US$3 for post for orders outside Australia, US/Canada or UK. ******************************************************* 'Earth Summit II: Outcomes and Analysis' (1998) 192 pages Derek Osborn and Tom Bigg Foreword by Tony Blair. In June 1997, heads of government and senior representatives from over 130 countries met in New York to consider what progress had been made since the first Earth Summit in 1992, and to decide upon priorities for the future. The book presents the principal official documents agreed at the Summit alongside an authoritative analysis of where progress is and is not being made, the reasons for this, and the priorities of the parties involved. Proposes a number of original ideas on how to ensure effective preparations for the 10-year review that will take place in 2002, seeing that the 5-year review in 1997 had little impact. Derek Osborn is Chair of the United Nations Environment and Development UK Committee, Chair of the European Environmental Agency and a member of the board of the UK Environmental Agency. He co-chaired the 1997 Commission for Sustainable Development (CSD) Intersessional Meeting preparing for Earth Summit II. Tom Bigg has worked for UNED-UK since its creation in 1993, focusing particularly on the work of the CSD. AUD$49 inc post, US$33 inc post, UKPnd 19 inc post. Add US$3 for post for orders outside Australia, US/Canada or UK. ******************************************************** PUBLICATION REQUEST FORM Please fill out the following and return it to e-mail: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, or fax: 61 7 4033 6881, or post: IGFR, PO Box 263E, Earlville, Qld 4870, Australia My name is.......................................................................... ............ My organisation (if any) is............................................................... 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Global Futures Bulletin #82
Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR) Tue, 20 Apr 1999 06:23:37 -0700
