----- Original Message -----
From: Ed Weick <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: Victor Milne <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Ian Ritchie <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>;
'futurework' <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: July 15, 1999 4:11 PM
Subject: Re: Jeremy Rifkin - 1-6-99
[snip]
> I simply do not agree with Victor's view that "many elements of the
> population simply don't have the aptitude to become knowledge workers and
> as far as I can tell their children won't have it either." Something like
> this is probably what the European industrial elite would have said to
each
> other when they looked at my central European peasant ancestors in 1850.
> Yet millions of people who are the descendants of peasants have become
> successful professionals, academics or businessmen. There are lots of
kids
> in the slums of today's big cities who could, with a change in
> circumstances, become very effective knowledge workers. But this is my
main
> point: it's not the computer or any other innovative technology which
> determines the position of these kids in life -- whether or not they will
> amount to something and find satisfying remunerative work -- it's their
> circumstances. A very bright kid trapped in a third world slum will
usually
> become a dulled and frustrated adult with a grade 3 education in a third
> world slum, nothing more.
>
In trying to compress my argument I probably said or implied something that
I did not mean to. I'm hardly in a position to strike an elitist pose. My
father was a millwright, and my ancestors before him were Scottish
peasant-farmers. For the past 14 years, since discovering that there was no
booming job market for burnt-out ex-clergy with multiple degrees in English
and theology, I've been working with my hands first in construction and then
in factories. I know very well that there are bright factory workers and
dumb factory workers, and based on a very limited sampling I would guess
that there are bright company presidents and dumb company presidents (the
latter being shielded from the kinds of economic stresses that factory
workers have.) I do believe that there is a fairly large genetic component
in intelligence, and that some people no matter what advantages of nurture
were given would not have the wherewithal to become, say, computer
programmers, though they might handle a job like janitor, forklift operator
or cashier admirably.
If this view is correct, I believe there is reason to fear that the type of
job suitable for this kind of person is slowly disappearing.
I read an article lately about robotics and AI. One of the leading experts
said we are still a couple of decades away from producing a true robotic
janitor, e.g., a robot that could with its sensors determine the nature of
the surfaces to be cleaned, select the appropriate cleanser or wax and apply
it efficiently.
First of all, two decades doesn't seem like such a long time to me. My
grandsons will be just barely in the labour force by then.
Secondly, it is likely that much of the workforce will be displaced by
machines still needing some human control but able to accomplish much more
(and more cheaply) than any human janitor. A few years ago I read that the
U.S. Post Office had purchased several toilet-cleaning robots. They needed
to be set to work by a human janitor who could then be doing other things
while they cleaned the toilets. One can envision other janitorial tasks
being taken over in the same way by semi-automated vacuum cleaners and floor
polishers.
I'm concerned about the impact of the new economy on real human beings. For
instance, several years ago I worked with a guy who didn't have much going
for him in a highly competitive job market. He was shy and retiring, I would
guess that his intelligence was in the low average range, he was physically
frail and had a bad back. He had been on welfare for several years until the
March of Dimes persuaded my employer to offer him a janitorial position. He
was a perfectly reliable worker, and fortunately everyone knew that his
tasks had to be restricted to sweeping and polishing. When 80 lb trash
barrels had to be emptied, the work was given to other janitors like me. I
don't see the new economy giving much of a break to people like that.
One final point, I do find it significant that gurus on opposite ends of the
political spectrum such as Jeremy Rifkin and Ian Angell are quite agreed on
what the consequences of the knowledge economy are likely to be for
unskilled workers. Angell commented that Rifkin should have called his book,
"The End of Workers."
Victor
