Greetings,
Occasional 'positive' news merits posting, since we are deluged with the
negative. This seems less 'double edged' than the overestimates of
population growth, which are due to rising mortality and topping out of
longevity as well as to declining fertility rates.
Steve
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NEWS FROM THE WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE
WORLDWATCH NEWS BRIEF 99-5
WORLD CARBON EMISSIONS FALL
Christopher Flavin
[Note: all figures and tables associated with this brief can be viewed
online
at: http: www.worldwatch.org/alerts/990727.html.]
For the first time since 1993, global emissions of carbon from the
combustion of
fossil fuels declined last year, falling 0.5 percent to 6.32 billion
tons,
according to new estimates by the Worldwatch Institute. (See Figure 1.)
This decline in emissions in the face of a world economy that expanded
2.5
percent in 1998 suggests an accelerated "de-linking" of economic
expansion from
carbon emissions, undercutting arguments that reducing emissions will
damage the
economy. During the past two years, the global economy has grown by 6.8
percent,
while carbon emissions held steady, leading to an impressive 6.4 percent
decrease in the amount of carbon emissions required to produce $1,000 of
income.
(See Figure 2.)
This turn marks the first pause in the carbon emissions escalator since
economic
collapse cut emissions in central Europe dramatically in the early
1990s. But
unlike that reduction, or the previous decline connected with the oil
crises of
the 1970s, the latest downturn did not result from a major economic
disruption.
Still, it is not yet clear how long-lasting the new trend will be.
These new global emissions figures, the first available for 1998, were
calculated early this month by Worldwatch researcher Gerard Alleng,
using energy
data recently supplied by BP Amoco.
Carbon dioxide is a byproduct of the burning of coal, oil, and natural
gas, and
is the chief contributor to global climate change. The decline in
emissions in
1998 is a sign that it may be less difficult to slow global warming
under the
Kyoto Protocol than has been assumed by some industry groups, including,
most
recently, the Business Roundtable.
The recent decline in emissions stems in part from improved energy
efficiency
and from falling coal use, spurred by new efficiency standards and the
removal
of energy subsidies. Also, much of the economic growth of the last two
years has
come in information technologies and services, sectors that are not
major energy
users. Contrary to the implication of a recent Forbes article, operating
the
entire global Internet requires less electricity than New York City
uses.
Meanwhile, industries such as steel making and other resource-intensive
sectors
are growing more slowly.
According to new projections by the U.S. Department of Energy, emissions
from
former Eastern bloc nations will still be 28 percent below the 1990
level in
2010. Under the Kyoto Protocol, this 374 million tons of so-called "hot
air" may
be sold to other countries-at a projected annual bill of between $4 and
$8
billion.
The de-linking of carbon emissions from economic growth is most clearly
seen in
China, the world's second largest emitter. Its economy grew 7.2 percent
in 1998,
while emissions dropped 3.7 percent, following a smaller decline the
previous
year. This compares with a steady 4 percent annual increase in China's
emissions
in the previous two decades. The reasons for the sharp cut in China's
emissions
are not fully known, but one factor is a recent $14 billion cut in its
coal
subsidies.
Also notable is the fact that emissions in former Eastern bloc countries
are
still declining a full decade after their economic transformation began.
Poland's emissions fell 9.7 percent in 1998, while the economy grew 6
percent.
Russia's emissions also declined, and are now 24 percent below the 1991
level.
(See Table 1.)
Indications of a de-linking of carbon emissions and economic growth
were
also evident in the United States in 1998, which saw emissions increase
0.4
percent while the economy grew 3.9 percent. Still, U.S. emissions in
1998 were
10.3 percent above its 1990 levels. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the United
States
is supposed to reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions to 7 percent
below the
1990 level by 2010.
Other industrial countries are having greater success in restraining
their
emissions. Japan's 1998 emissions were only 5.6 percent above the 1990
level,
while European Union emissions were less than 1 percent above the 1990
level-due
in part to declining coal use in Germany and the United Kingdom.
Slower growth in carbon emissions will make it slightly easier to
achieve the
ambitious goals of the Kyoto Protocol. However, to reach those targets,
and to
reduce emissions in developing countries, accelerated adoption of new
energy
technologies will be needed.
Recent double-digit growth rates for solar and wind technologies, and
the
imminent commercialization of hydrogen fuel cells, herald a new,
less-carbon-intensive energy system in the early 21st century. However,
the pace
of development will be heavily influenced by government decisions on
fossil fuel
subsidies and taxes, and on the rate of adoption of market incentives
for new
energy technologies.
Already, the U.S. Department of Energy's 1999 projection that global
carbon
emissions will grow at 1.3 percent annually through 2010 is off-track.
It is
likely that government forecasters and scientific bodies such as the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will now have to revise their
projections downward.
-END-
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