Date: Mon, 16 Aug 1999 05:01:41 -0700 (PDT) From: MichaelP <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "unlikely.suspects": ; Subject: Even the London Times thinks there's fun to be had in Seattle The Times (London) 22 July 1999 Don't risk falling asleep in Seattle The trouble with the European Union, as we Brits perennially complain, is that people don't know when to stop. As soon as you agree to pool sovereignty for a single market, they want monetary union. Then the establishment pushes some other scheme for ever-closer union. Now it is happening globally. The multilateral trade system, the world equivalent of the EU, has become an engine driving us towards a particular model of a single global economy, engineered in Washington rather than Brussels. We are all in favour of stopping France and Germany going to war again, and have seen in our pockets the great benefits of economic co-operation in Western Europe. But that wears thin when it comes to regulating paper rounds or the umpteenth company law directive. Similarly, we are all in favour of free trade. When the postwar multilateral trade system was set up, it was designed to outlaw the nationalistic trade protection that did so much to impoverish people in the 1930s and to sow the seeds for war in Europe and the Pacific. And the fruits of freer trade are there for most to see in two generations of global economic growth. As in the EU, however, political momentum is in danger of pushing the trade agenda too fast, if not yet too far. It took eight years to negotiate an end to most quotas and a step cut in tariffs in the epic Uruguay round. Five years later it has yet to work properly. Those EU/US disputes over bananas and beef suggest that the deal was so complex that even the most clued-up did not know what they were signing. The farce over electing a new director-general shows that the rules of the new World Trade Organisation are hopeless. Poorer countries complain that open trade was promised in textiles but not delivered. The Asian crash raises worries about financial regulation and huge swings in exchange rates. America, which has a better record than most, has just authorised punitive anti-dumping tariffs on all its main steel imports from all corners of the earth and has slammed lamb quotas on New Zealand, perhaps the only nation that runs a blameless regime in agriculture. Clearly, it will take years to make the Uruguay reforms work smoothly, let alone to earn any respect for a WTO that already needs a rethink. we are also trying to corral China into the system. On a pure trade view, making China obey the rules is good for rich and poor traders alike. America alone is running a $5 billion-a-month trade deficit with the fastest-growing trade power. But China's entry will require many adjustments. Unbelievably, the WTO is about to start a new trade round. By skilful planning and diplomacy Charlene Barshefsky, America's aggressive Trade Representative, has cajoled the other members to a meeting at Seattle in November that she will chair. Barring some last-minute rethink by those who ought to know better, Seattle will give its name to a new negotiation, as complex as and far more contentious than the last one. That marathon ended only when we put off much of the food agenda and services to the next time. Given the intervening explosion in communications, the Internet, worries over turning forests into deserts and the implications of genetically modified crops, that is now too much. Even that agenda is being expanded to include industrial tariffs as a sop to developing countries. That embraces forest timber and fisheries, two of the most environmentally sensitive sectors. Many other testing issues are fighting to be slipped in, including the imperialistic Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI), which seems to spring back to unwelcome life however often it is killed off. The US, EU and Japan have agreed on one thing. The negotiations must end within three years. That explains the battle over the new director-general. Under a compromise, America finally managed to shoe in Mike Moore, the no-nonsense New Zealander it is relying on to knock heads together, for the crucial first three years. You have to feel sorry for Supachai Panitchpakdi, the Thai who will then take over for three years. He would have to enforce a mega-deal just as those press-ganged into signing find out what they have done. As a Swiss noted in a recent WTO symposium, trade regulation has now emerged as the prime instrument of foreign policy. Any dismantling of barriers now tends to be conditional on non-trade conditions, such as the regime proposed in the MAI. This foreign policy has also been privatised. That is why, for instance, America chooses to help domestic lobbies via retaliatory tariffs against exporters in countries banning its hormone-assisted beef rather than accept EU compensation. Global multinationals, though still hugely mistrusted, are now recognised by many as key agents to transmit better standards round the globe. Through the trade of multinationals, rich consumers can lobby for Third World workers and forests. Sadly, US trade policy is also owned by some pretty Wild West interests not shared by Europe or the Third World. Let us hope that Pascal Lamy, the EU's new Trade Commissioner, is practising his "non" in good time for Seattle. To achieve any genuine consensus, the agenda needs to be cut to the bone. Budgetary pressure should at last make the EU ready to end agricultural export subsidies, the worst distortion in farm trade. In return, we should demand that the precautionary principle be allowed in WTO disputes over foods that raise health fears. New regimes for communications and e-commerce are urgent, but complex. Free trade in textiles must be enforced fully. That is enough for three years. ================================= *** NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. *** -- For MAI-not (un)subscription information, posting guidelines and links to other MAI sites please see http://mai.flora.org/
