RE: Risk-taking (wasRe: [Futurework]http://www.glaesernemanufaktur.de/

[Harry Pollard]

Ed,   I was referring to Keith’s obviously fake picture. He probably got a model in to pose for him.   Knowing you don’t know is the beginning of wisdom.   Harry   ******************************************** Henry George School of Social Science of Los Angeles Box 655  Tujunga  CA  91042 Tel: 818 352-4141  --  Fax: 818 353-2242 http://haledward.home.comcast.net ********************************************   From: Ed Weick [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, December 31, 2003 2:49 PM To: Harry Pollard; 'Keith Hudson' Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: Risk-taking (wasRe: [Futurework]http://www.glaesernemanufaktur.de/   I joked with Ed that “to the economist, reality is a special case” – but I fear it may not be a joke. Incidentally, Ed is a good example of an economist with a career of meeting reality.   I’ve seen your photograph on your website. It’s a picture of a handsome, distinguished, and obviously erudite individual.   Who did you get to pose for it?   Harry   If you're referring to me, Harry, it was my imaginary good and erudite twin.  We are both imaginary.  To him, I am the imaginary evil and boorish one.  We both imagine ourselves to be economists, one good, one bad (in the moral sense; neither of us are very good in knowing much about the subject).   Ed ----- Original Message ----- From: Harry Pollard To: 'Keith Hudson' Cc: 'Ed Weick' ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, December 31, 2003 3:46 PM Subject: RE: Risk-taking (wasRe: [Futurework]http://www.glaesernemanufaktur.de/   Keith,   What! No-one has yet invented a bed bottom warmer? That seems more urgent than a better mouse trap.   We exchanged:   “HARRY: This seems to indicate we reason pretty well that our choices aren't bad. We are right most of the time - maybe only 6 out of 10 but enough. If we reason badly, we are not likely to survive.” >>>> ”KEITH:  Non sequitur old chap. The fact that we got by with faulty or deficient reasoning in hunter-gatherer days doesn't necessary mean that we can do so today.”   It also doesn’t not mean that we can do so today.  (Wow! There’s a contrivance.)   Perhaps as hunter gatherers we relied more on instinct. However, we have sloughed our instincts and I would agree with Ashley Montagu that they have gone. We have replaced them with reasonable choice.   While an instinctive response is the perfect reply to a given stimulus, a problem arises when the stimulus changes. With Man, when the stimulus changes, so does his reasoned decision.   It is logical to assume that were his decisions to be mostly wrong his “breeding time” would be reduced and his survival through his descendents would also be reduced, or ended.   So, we who are left – who are breeding and expanding – must be better reasoners.   However, it makes sense for those of us who are not very good at reasoning to hand over the job to those who are better at it. This is where we run into trouble. We have set up a system where not only is our thinking done for us, but we have no control over those doing the job.   This is bad reasoning. Worse, it has become the norm and may yet cast us into the deeps.   I’m not really bad-mouthing economists. In fact, as I’ve said, I think that they tend to be superior. But, I would add that their discipline is a mess. They have erected mountains of scholarship on inadequate premises and we are all paying for it.   My comment with regard to ‘perfect” models stands. Joan Robinson made a career out of it. Yet, people going to market with inadequate information is the norm. The action of the price mechanism is to keep them moving toward perfection, but they won’t achieve it. They will still buy the “cheapest and best” tomatoes not knowing there are better and cheaper tomatoes down the street. However, that isn’t some kind of economic failure.   It’s reality.   I joked with Ed that “to the economist, reality is a special case” – but I fear it may not be a joke. Incidentally, Ed is a good example of an economist with a career of meeting reality.   I’ve seen your photograph on your website. It’s a picture of a handsome, distinguished, and obviously erudite individual.   Who did you get to pose for it?   Harry     --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.557 / Virus Database: 349 - Release Date: 12/30/2003 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.557 / Virus Database: 349 - Release Date: 12/30/2003

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