The recent departure of hard-liners, Wolfowitz, Bolton and Feith from the White House, and the arrival of Negroponte, fresh from his ambassadorial months in Iraq and now installed as Intelligence supremo -- and not frightened to speak his mind from what we know of him -- has convinced me in the past few weeks that President Bush will soon embark on a totally new policy for Iraq and that troops will be withdrawn at a faster clip than has been intimated so far. This will probably involve the resignation, willing or otherwise, of Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, who has been giving some briefings recently suggesting that he's going to stay until 2008.
I think that there is one great political fight going on now in the White House between Bush and Rumsfeld, Bush being principally aided by Negroponte on the Iraq front and Bernanke, recently moved from the Fed and now appointed as Chief Economic Policy Advisor. Unlike Mankiw, the previous advisor, he will not be overshaowed by Vice-president Cheney and will speak his mind on the worsening budget deficit and domestic economy.
Today, three more items arrived in my laptop which also add weight to my view.
Firstly, some radical Sunni leaders are hinting that all will become peacerrful in Iraq if they are given more government seats. My interpretation of this is that this is part of a looming US-Iraqi scenario which is being constructed in order to allow Bush to say publicly that there is now a workable government in Iraq which will lead to democracy.
Secondly, senior British officers under and including General Sir Mike Jackson, the chief of the General Staff, are now warning their US counterparts that the present situation cannot continue if US troops continue to be trigger happy in Iraq. I am sure that they have expressed their reservations about the US troops' attitudes and behaviour before -- and provately -- but never so trenchantly. This could only have been leaked with Tony Blair's permission. Blair's relationship with Bush seems to be very cold now. Blair did not attend the 60th WWII VE anniversary celebrations in Moscow, though every other world leader did. (He was said to be busy shuffling his new Cabinet -- despite the fact that most of his previous senior Ministers have remained.)
Thirdly, US Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice is reported by the BBC as making a surprise visit to Iraq. Now this by itself is of little importance. Like President Bush himself, Rice just skips around the world and never stays more than an hour or two in any one place. Like Bush, she never stays for discussion with other leaders -- simply because she doesn't have the experience or confidence for that sort of high-level negotiation. However, her deputy, Robert Zoellick -- and the real work-horse of the State Department -- spent several days in Iraq recently (and Rumsfeld, now in fear of his job in my opinion, flew in and out of Iraq during that period -- no doubt trying to sniff out what Zoellick was up to). A little later, Rice's visit can be used by Bush to show that she is on the ball and his change of policy has been much up to her.
It looks to me that a big change of policy -- a fairly early and substantial withdrawal of most of the US troops -- will be announced very shortly.
Keith Hudson
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SOME SUNNIS HINT AT PEACE TERMS IN IRAQ, US SAYS
Steven R. Weisman and John F. Burns
Washington -- The Bush administration, struggling to cope with a recent intensification of insurgent violence in Iraq, has received signals from some radical Sunni Arab leaders that they would abandon fighting if the new Shiite majority government gave Sunnis a significant voice in the country's political evolution, administration officials said this week.
The officials said American contacts with what they called "rejectionist" elements among Sunni Arabs - the governing minority under Saddam Hussein, which has generated much of the insurgency, and largely boycotted January's elections - showed that many wanted to join in the political system, including the writing of a permanent constitution.
But the political feuding that delayed the formation of the government for nearly three months after the elections has so far blocked the kind of concessions the Sunnis are demanding.
In particular, the Americans are pressing for Shiite hard-liners in the new Iraqi government to consider conciliatory gestures that would include allowing former Baath Party members to serve in the government, granting pensions to former army officers who served under Mr. Hussein and setting up courts that would try detainees seized in the anti-insurgency drive. Many of the detainees have been held for a year or more without legal recourse.
....
New York Times -- 15 May 2005
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TRIGGER-HAPPY US TROOPS 'WILL KEEP US IN IRAQ FOR YEARS'
Sean Rayment
British defence chiefs have warned United States military commanders in Iraq to change their rules for opening fire or face becoming bogged down in a terrorist war for a decade or more.
The Telegraph has learnt that the warning was issued last month in response to a series of incidents that led to the deaths of Iraqi civilians, mainly at checkpoints, after soldiers opened fire in the mistaken belief that they were being attacked by suicide bombers.
The warning is said to have taken the form of advice from senior officers who accompanied Gen Sir Mike Jackson, the chief of the General Staff, on a recent trip to southern Iraq and Baghdad to visit British troops.
....
Sunday Telegraph -- 15 May 2005
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RICE MAKES SURPRISE VISIT TO IRAQ
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has arrived in Irbil in the Kurdish north of Iraq on an unpublicised visit.
The US embassy said she would meet Iraqi government leaders and US military commanders.
....
BBC Online -- 15 May 2005
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Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
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