King Fahd of Saudi Arabia is dying. Or perhaps he isn't. With, probably, the best medical attention in the world, he is still hanging onto life -- and he's been doing that for the last ten years since his first medical crisis.
Perhaps he'll never die. Perhaps the Saudi Arabian royal family will be so scared of what instability may follow his death that they'll do what the Spanish did with General Franco -- keep his brain alive in some sort of vegetative state long after his body had given up. If the Spanish were able to do this for days then the Saudi Arabians, with all the latest medical technology, might be able to do this for weeks, or months ... or years.
"There is no likelihood of any succession crisis were the king to die" -- so says Tim Butcher in today's Daily Telegraph. Oh no? Then why has the country been placed on alert with all military leave cancelled? I also follow with an item from BBC Online for some extra balance. One infers from the latter that the succession to King Fahd may already be taking place, and will follow whether the King dies or not.
Ah, but there's a constitutional successor already in place, so the apologists will say. Crown Prince Abdullah has been actually reigning as Regent and, as he's the King's half-brother, there's no problem. (This is to ignore the fact Abdullah is also in his 80s.)
The problem is that Crown Prince Abdullah is a reformer within the Saudi Arabian royal family and he's only protected by the intensely hierachical structure of Bedouin society understrapped by the powerful Wahhabi priesthood within Riyadh. Other powerful royals, such as the Defence Minister, are not reformists. Abdullah's protection will be gone when King Fahd dies. Two other reformist royals, Prince Bandar and Prince Turki, in the guise of being Ambassadors to the US and UK respectively, have long been in fear of their lives and had to flee Saudi Arabia with their families and fortunes years ago, never returning. It will be interesting to see whether other reformist royals start feeling Riyadh in the days to come.
Most of the young males of Saudi Arabia -- over two million of them -- and no jobs, having been taught no modern skills in the religious state schools, and with no likelihood of ever being able to save up enough dowry-money to marry. They cannot vote and they cannot hold street protests without fear of being gunned down by security forces. It is no wonder that, for some of them -- often the more intelligent and thus, impressionable, at their age -- their surcharged energies have been deflected into the only channel available to them -- religious extremism. Some are Al Qaeda terrorists within Saudi Arabia but many more are now pouring into Iraq as suicide bombers at the rate of two or three a day, killing those whom they regard as more heretical than Christians or Jews -- namely Shia Moslems.
I go on holiday tomorrow. On my penultimate holiday, I spent hours in the lounge of an Italian hotel watching repeatedly on TV the crashing of airplanes into the New York Trade Center by Saudi Arabian young men -- 15 out of 19 of them anyway (none of them being Iraqis). Nothing happened in Andalucian Spain during my last holiday -- except my wonder at the architectural glories of what Islam achieved 700 years ago and what was then a liberal society -- and where, among other things, they raised a statue out of respect to the greatest Jewish rabbi of all time, Maimonides. But this time, as I pack my bags, I wonder what feat of destruction may be served up while I'm away?
Keith Hudson
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SAUDI ALERT AS KING TAKEN TO HOSPITAL
Tim Butcher, Middle East Correspondent
A state of alert was declared in Saudi Arabia last night with all military leave cancelled after the king of the oil-rich Muslim nation was taken into hospital in Riyadh with what doctors described as a fever.
King Fahd, who is in his early 80s, was reported to have pneumonia and his condition was said to be very serious. He needed "tests and some treatment", according to a senior Saudi official.
Financial markets had been jittery all week as rumours of the king's illness circulated. Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest oil producer.
"King Fahd was running a high temperature for three days and this caused concern and required scans, tests and some treatment," a Saudi official said.
There is no likelihood of any succession crisis were the king to die. His half-brother, Crown Prince Abdullah, has effectively ruled as a regent since the king suffered a serious stroke 10 years ago. But the authorities in Saudi Arabia, a closed and secretive society, were taking no chances as they stopped all police officers, soldiers and security forces from going on leave.
As one of America's closest allies in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has been targeted in recent years by Muslim fundamentalists with bombings and gun attacks on mainly western targets.
But its position as guardian to the Muslim holy sites of Mecca and Medina give Saudi a dual role in the war on terrorism. Some of its people have been responsible for some of the worst fundamentalist terrorism.
Osama bin Laden comes from Saudi Arabia and most of the September 11 terrorists also held Saudi nationality.
Daily Telegraph -- 28 May 2005
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SAUDI UNCERTAINTY
Saudi Arabia's King Fahd is being treated in hospital amid conflicting reports about his state of health. Unnamed officials said a state of alert had been declared, but this was later denied by the interior ministry.
The BBC's Frank Gardner says there have been rumours about the king's health before but this latest scare could be more serious. In 1995, King Fahd suffered a stroke, and Crown Prince Abdullah has performed most of his functions since then. Abdullah is regarded as successor to the throne.
Opposition sources in London predict that if the king dies there may well be a power struggle against the ruling princes.
There is heavy security around the King Faisal hospital in Riyadh. Saudi security sources said a number of princes from the ruling family have been arriving in the capital. News agencies have quoted Saudi sources as indicating the king has a lung infection, but the royal palace has not given details of his symptoms.
"We ask God to keep and care for the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and grant him health and wellbeing," said a statement by the official SPA news agency, announcing the king's illness.
A later report quoted an official source as saying the king was "in good health" and medical tests were proceeding in a "normal way". The agency did not give specific details about the king's condition, but an unidentified source said he was suffering from a fever and "had water in his lungs".
An Arab official told AP news agency he was believed to have pneumonia and his condition was "very serious". However, the official added that the reported state of alert was only a precaution and did not indicate trouble. Saudi officials denied that an emergency had been declared or that security forces' leave had been cancelled.
"There is no change in the internal situation in Saudi Arabia. Everything is normal," the king's foreign policy adviser, Adel al-Jubeir, told Reuters.
King Fahd, who is in his early 80s, has been little more than a titular leader since suffering his stroke. However, he has remained an important figure in the region and the ultimate arbiter of Saudi policy.
Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer and has emerged from being an underdeveloped desert kingdom to become one of the wealthiest nations in the region. On Wednesday, rumours of his failing health sent the value of Saudi stocks tumbling by 5%.
BBC Online -- 28 May 2005
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Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
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