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Shell predicts two decades of
rising energy prices By Michael Harrison, The Independent/UK, 07 June 2005 Worldwide energy
prices are set to rise over the next two decades as individual countries become
more concerned about ensuring security of supply and governments take a more
pro-active role in dictating energy policy and regulating markets, according to
the latest global outlook from the oil giant Shell. Its "global
scenarios" report, the first to be produced since the twin shocks of the
terror attacks of 11 September 2001 and the Enron scandal, also suggests that
Shell in common with other oil majors will place more emphasis on developing
renewable energy sources such as wind and solar than extracting more
hydrocarbons through unconventional means. The report outlines three potential
scenarios up to 2025:
�
Under
the first, "low trust globalisation", world economic growth is
assumed to be 3.1 per cent and as the process of globalisation continues, it is
fettered by a much stronger regulatory role for governments and stricter curbs
on cross-border movement of people, goods and knowledge. �
The
second, "open doors", envisages stronger growth of 3.8 per cent as
the markets provide solutions to the twin crises of security and trust sparked
by events such as 9/11 and Enron and the only restraint on exploiting new
energy sources is the investment available. �
The
third, "flags", depicts a world in which nation states retreat into
their shells and conflicts put a brake on globalisation, resulting in annual
growth of just 2.6 per cent. Albert Bressand, the
vice-president of global business environment at Shell and the report's main
author, said that under each of the scenarios security of supply assumed
greater importance, "potentially
leading to far more politicised energy relations and creating new sources of
tensions among countries". The
"flags" scenario may increase development of expensive forms of
renewable energy, such as wind, as states sought to ensure indigenous supplies,
the "open doors" scenario was likely to produce the biggest rise in
the cost as growing demand drove up prices. http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=644809 Tankers carry oil and
a story: May is reported to be the slackest time
of the year for tankers as this is the time refineries do maintenance before
the high production runs of the summer gas and fall heating oil seasons. This may well be a reason that there has been little
increase in the loadings of oil from the Middle East. Reuters
also reports that “supplies might tighten further as China, the world's
second-biggest oil consumer, could start building its strategic oil stockpiles
(650,000 bd) as early as August, when 10 million
barrels of storage capacity of an eventual 150 million barrels would be ready
in the east coast city of Ningbo. http://theoildrum.blogspot.com/2005/06/tankers-carry-oil-and-story.html Launch date set for solar sailing
ship
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