Keith wrote: Karen, If Bush's speech is going to have more than a temporary effect on the trend going against him then he's going to need a far smarter speech-writer than Karl Rove. Bush's second-term inaugural speech was a disaster for him.

As you know, I think that Bush is now being influenced by a much more intelligent (and experienced) team than previously. I mean Negroponte, Zoellick and Bernanke. I think it is certain that Rumsfeld is being increasingly frozen out, and maybe Cheney, too (there are one or two straws in the wind that suggest this to me, but I'm not convinced yet). But whether Karl Rove is being frozen out is a moot point. I suspect he might be, but both the contents and style of Bush's speech at Fort Bragg will clearly indicate whether Rove is still influential or not.

Interesting! Keith

It doesn’t matter who is frozen out or not, but will the policy be realistic and will the messenger be honest?  I agree with Beinart that until Bush talks straight with the American public, it doesn’t matter how lofty the words are now.  Only a direct attack on our shores will shock the wishy washy from seeking shelter in the web of deception again. The déjà vu factor is growing.

 

There are too many politicians who remember Watergate and the lasting distrust it generated of government in general and Republicans specifically.  Unless an attack happens, there will be fewer GOP in Congress who will take chances with Bush, whether they are up for reelection next year or not.

 

Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld must stop making this war a partisan battle. It’s backfiring on them. It turns out that young Republicans want to defend the war, but not serve in it.  The “base” Republicans want to fight cultural wars, not ones with live ammunition.

 

Kerry’s article outlined several critical points that would improve the credibility factor and legitimize the end product, now a nation building exercise:

  • The president must announce immediately that the United States will not have a permanent military presence or bases in Iraq.
  • The United States must also insist that the Iraqis establish a truly inclusive political process and meet the deadlines for finishing the constitution and holding elections in December.
  • We need to put the training of Iraqi troops on a true six month wartime footing and ensure that the Iraqi government has the budget needed to deploy them.
  • The administration needs to work not just at security but at reconstruction -- Iraqis need to see the electricity working and the water flowing.
  • The administration needs to get Iraq's neighbors off the sidelines -- they can't afford a failed Iraq on their doorstep, and Bush-style unilateralism needs to bend to getting these countries on board.
  • And the administration must immediately draw up a detailed plan with clear milestones for the transfer of military and police responsibilities to Iraqis after the December elections. The plan should be shared with Congress.


Tonight, Pres. Bush will deliver “an important speech”, once again from within the friendly confines of a military base, about his Iraq war policy and objectives.  Many of us, because his poll numbers continue to drop to historical levels, anticipate it will be something like Nixon’s I’m Not A Crook speech.  It also appears that he has reached a fork in the road moment, one calling for reflection that seems to be on the endangered list for this administration, always blaming low level soldiers, low level civil servants, opponents, instead of looking at the problems they’ve created, assuming some accountability, often with constructive criticism from within their own party.  Will he proceed as before, and go off a cliff, or stop short and demonstrate some real leadership (he has been quoted saying leaders don’t apologize)?

 

Several have taken the opportunity to rebut and refine the message Americans will hear. One, not surprisingly, is Sen. Kerry, the “dragon slayed” by the Rove Smear Machine, currently dba Policy Advisor but using the same playbook as the permanent campaign chief.  Another critic is Peter Beinart, one of the signers who wrote the President encouraging a larger military force in Iraq.

 

Here is Beinart’s commentary and the link to Kerry’s follows. I don’t agree with Beinart’s assumption that Iraq isn’t already in civil war, or that it is an established state at this time in its history, and doubt, like military experts who’ve allowed themselves to say it, that the Iraqi Army will be sufficient to the task created for them in approximately two years.  But his comments about conduct unbecoming make it impossible for those few diehards left who believe every word said in the past to ignore that leadership doesn’t come in a bottle, and it isn’t vaccinated by a born again experience, either. The charade must end.

 

Time For Some Humility, Mr. President

By Peter Beinart, in The Oregonian, June 28, 2005, page B7

 

President Bush and Democratic Rep. Lynn Woolsey of California deserve each other. Woolsey is a founder of the newly created Our of Iraq Congressional Caucus. She recently told Roll Call that “Success for us is two words: Troops. Home.”

 

That’s breathtakingly irresponsible. Of course, success means eventually bringing American troops home. But it also means ensuring that Iraq doesn’t dissolve into civil war.  Preventing Iraq from becoming a failed state that exports a new generation of jihadists killers is vital to American security. And making sure we don’t abandon the Iraqi people to Lebanon-style slaughter is vital to American honor. Woolsey doesn’t seem to understand that.

 

But the Out of Iraq Caucus didn’t come from nowhere. It’s the result of President Bush’s ongoing refusal to speak honestly about the war. All but the most die-hard sycophants now acknowledge that before the war the Bush administration exaggerated the threat from Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction and terrorist ties. And that it lowballed the costs – in money, troops and time – of building a stable, liberal government in Baghdad. Yet even today the president keeps playing the same dishonest games. In his June 18 radio address, Bush said, in the context of Iraq, that “we went to war because we were attacked,”  He’s still implying a connection between Saddam Hussein and Sept. 11, 2001 – even now!

 

A plurality of Americans now believe they were “deliberately misled” before the war. When the president talks to the country about Iraq tonight, he needs to address that.  Otherwise, he’ll never have the credibility to tell Americans the harsh truth: that Iraqi troops won’t be ready to defend their government for two years or more.  And until they can, brave young US soldiers will have to keep doing the job.

 

A good way to begin addressing this credibility gap is by dumping John Bolton. The nomination of Bolton is a giant declaration that the Bush administration still thinks it did nothing wrong on prewar intelligence. As undersecretary of state for arms control, Bolton tried to hype the threat from Cuba, Syria and Iraq.  And when intelligence analysts opposed him, he tried to fire them. Now the Bush administration wants to send him to the United Nations so he can opine about US intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program – and be laughed out of the building.

 

Then Bush should dump Donald Rumsfeld – whose continued employment signals that the Bush administration still thinks it did nothing wrong on prewar planning.  Rumsfeld’s refusal to listen to the Army, the State Department, outside experts and even conservative pundits who said that America needed more troops to secure postwar Iraq constitutes, in the words of Larry Diamon, a former Coalition Provisional Authority senior adviser, “criminal negligence.”   How can Bush offer credible strategy for winning peace if he relies on an utterly discredited defense secretary to carry it out?

 

President Bush famously hates admitting mistakes.  And he generally plays to his base. But on Iraq, those instincts are driving his administration off a cliff.  The vast majority of Democrats, and most independents, now think Iraq was a mistake. And the calls for withdrawal are moving from the fringes of American politics to the center.

 

Congressional Democrats must resist those calls.  As retired Gen. Anthony Zinni, a fierce critic of the war, recently explained, even a timetable for withdrawal is a terrible idea. Knowing America was on its way out would embolden the insurgency and undermine Iraqis risking their lives to build a free country.

 

But if Bush wants to stem the rising sentiment for withdrawal, he needs to do something he has avoided for more than two years: He needs to make this a national war, not a partisan one. That means appointing independent figures to key jobs – people like Richard Lugar or Sam Nunn, who come from outside the conservative cocoon. And it means speaking about Iraq with a humility that this administration has richly earned.

 

For America to win in Iraq, President Bush first needs to win back America’s trust. Let’s hope it’s not too late.

 

 

Peter Beinart is editor of the New Republic and a guest scholar at the Brookings Institute.

 

Sen. John Kerry: The Speech the President Should Give http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/28/opinion/28kerry.html? and http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/062805Y.shtml

 

 

 

 

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