Despite ‘bulking up’ missile defense and rearranging
troops, the US’ single-minded neoconservative agenda may miss a golden
opportunity in Asia. The second dilemma is, of course, is an ongoing problem:
practicing what we preach about capitalism’s free markets, and thirdly, proving
at home that western-style capitalism still works.
Related links, below. - Kwc
Rice's
no-show irks Southeast Asia
The US
secretary of state won't attend this week's meeting of ASEAN, a group
increasingly courted by China. By Simon Montlake, Correspondent of The Christian Science
Monitor, July 26, 2005 BANGKOK, THAILAND - As Asian foreign ministers gather this
week in Laos to discuss regional security issues, the main sideline topic is
likely to be US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's no-show. Citing a scheduling clash, Rice is sending deputy Robert
Zoellick to the annual forum, which runs July 28-29 during a summit held by the
10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Foreign ministers
from China, Japan, the Koreas, India, and Pakistan are among the other
"dialog partners" to ASEAN. US officials insist that no snub is intended, nor any signal
that the US isn't paying attention to Asia. Washington has its hands full with
another Asian summit this week, the six-party talks with North Korea. And Mr.
Zoellick is a familiar face in Asian capitals from his previous job as US trade
negotiator. But the move has
disappointed Asian countries who see Rice as close to President Bush.
"Let's be candid. The foreign ministers of ASEAN are not ecstatic about
the decision," Philippine Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo told reporters
in Manila. Rice's no-show comes at a time when China is rapidly
extending its economic and political ties in Southeast Asia. Its commercial
strength and rising thirst for raw materials and factory inputs commands the
rapt attention of Asian leaders who are eager to "feed the dragon."
By contrast, the US is seen as distracted by Iraq and the wider war on terror. Nascent US-China diplomatic rivalries have begun emerging
around the globe and Southeast Asia is likely to be an early testing ground for
China's ability to wield soft power. But it's not just Chinese investments,
trade, and pandas on loan that are turning heads. Last week the Pentagon warned
that China's rapid military buildup could pose a long-term threat to stability
in Asia, a claim disputed by Beijing. For now, many Southeast Asian leaders seem happy to keep
doing business with Beijing, while favoring a US security presence in Asia's
potentially stormy waters. "We see a gradual tipping of balance in favor of China
[in Southeast Asia]. It's largely diplomatic influence and economic relations,
though. In terms of military power, the US is by far the strongest,"
says Joseph Cheng, an expert on China-ASEAN relations at Hong Kong's City
University. Last year, China agreed to create a regional trading bloc
with ASEAN by 2010. It would be the world's largest by population. Analysts say
that for Beijing, such a bloc would serve as a counterweight to Western-led
economic clubs and show that China is the region's natural partner. At the same time, the rise of China is a useful bargaining
chip for Southeast Asian leaders trying to wring concessions from Washington
and Tokyo, which have in the past supplied much of the capital and know-how to
develop the region. "ASEAN
countries want to make sure the relationship is nicely balanced between China
and Japan and the US," says Sheng Lijun, a senior fellow at the Institute
for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. Diplomats suggest ASEAN might share some of the blame for
slipping down Rice's priority list. The organization "meets a lot [and]
talks a lot," says one, adding that ASEAN shies away from bold actions and
is reluctant to push recalcitrant members. One irritant in US-ASEAN relations is military-ruled Burma,
which is due to assume the organization's rotating chair in 2006. Under
pressure from the US and the European Union, which have both sanctioned Burma
over its political repression, ASEAN members, who favor consensus over
confrontation, have tried to find a face-saving way to skip Burma's chairmanship.
The Burmese have hinted they may opt to decline the chair to head off conflict
- and more no-shows. "If Burma has the chair, it's unlikely that we or other
dialog partners would go to Rangoon," says a senior US official in the
region, referring to the Burmese capital. "Burma is a thorn in ASEAN's
side. It impedes their ability as an organization to move forward on a lot of
their agenda items with the rest of the world." Burma isn't the only repressive ASEAN state to have drawn
Washington's ire. Vietnam has been criticized for curbing religious freedoms
and jailing political prisoners. Sen. Mitch McConnell frequently assailed
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen as a tyrant and has blocked direct US aid to
Cambodia, one of Asia's poorest nations.
However, US pressure on Cambodia and Burma hasn't produced democratic
reforms. Instead,
say analysts and Western diplomats, it has pushed their governments further in
the direction of China, which offers political and economic support with fewer
strings attached. Hun Sen recently returned from China with pledges of
bilateral loans and investments put at $400 million. Western and Japanese
donors pumped around $500 million into Cambodia in 2004. Coupled
with China's reported interest in acquiring a naval docking base in Cambodia
and its military aid to Burma, such largess could signal a shift to an
expansionist presence in the region. China has competing territorial claims in
the South China Sea with other ASEAN members, including Vietnam. "China wants to make
sure its neighbors and near-neighbors don't create problems, particularly when
they have resources that it wants," says a senior European
diplomat in the region. Chinese leaders have presented their diplomatic dance in
Southeast Asia as a commercially
driven win-win.
Analysts say Beijing is reaping political goodwill from high-profile
investments in the region, while leaving unanswered a key question about its
long-term goal. "China's medium-term policy is to be seen as a strong
benign partner [in Southeast Asia]. What's less certain is that once China
becomes that strong power and sits, let's say, shoulder to shoulder with the
US, how will it behave then?"
asks Razak Baginda, director of the Malaysian Strategic Research Center in
Kuala Lumpur. http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0726/p06s01-wosc.html Burma foregoes ASEAN chair http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4715283.stm Related: Neighbors to feel effect of Chinese revaluation; short term downsides but long term upsides http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-asiaecon26jul26,1,4169063.story?coll=la-headlines-business Unocal says it favored CNOOC bid http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-unocal26jul26,0,4298936.story?coll=la-home-business Liu: The Coming Trade War, part 1-3 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/others/trade-war.html Lenard:
China’s Thursday Surprise: why
now, why 2.1%? http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GG23Ad05.html Scheer: On
China at least, Nixon was right. “The protectionists must be defeated and
U.S. policy should stay rooted in the wisdom of Richard M. Nixon — a prosperous
China is good for us all.” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-scheer26jul26,0,5132889.column?coll=la-news-comment-opinions |
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