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I hope this
provides interesting reading and perhaps good conversation. For those of
you unfamiliar with this visionary author, I’ve provided a link below. KwC How
to Live Without Oil
By
Amory B. Lovins, Newsweek International, Aug. 08, 2005
Issue In 1850, most homes in
the United States were lit by lamps that burned whale oil. As demand rose, supply
dwindled—whales became shy and scarce—and prices for whale oil climbed. Then
alternative fuels such as smokeless, odorless coal-kerosene began to sweep the
market. By 1859, when Edwin Drake struck oil in Pennsylvania, five sixths of
all whale-oil lamps had switched to the new fuels. The astonished whalers, who
hadn't heeded the competition, ran out of customers before they ran out of
whales. Oil may now be poised
to repeat that history. With prices exceeding $50 a barrel, the world's oil
habit now costs $4 billion a day. Some experts warn that output will soon peak
and prices will reach $100, but nobody really knows for sure (94 percent of
reserves are owned by governments, which generally keep the data secret).
Fortunately, it doesn't matter: With cheap oil-saving technologies and
alternative fuels already at our disposal, the sooner we get off oil, the
sooner we'll start making bigger profits. That's right—profits.
The conventional wisdom is that $50-a-barrel oil has made alternatives to
fossil fuels economically viable. But the truth is that they were viable back
when oil was $25 a barrel. The arguments in favor of phasing out oil have now
merely become overwhelming. That's true
everywhere—but nowhere more so than in America, the world's biggest oil consumer.
It's entirely possible to cut projected U.S. oil consumption in half by 2025,
and eliminate it completely by 2050, without compromising rapid economic
growth. Demand could be halved simply by using oil twice as efficiently over
several decades; the other half could be replaced with saved natural gas and
advanced biofuels. According to a U.S. policy analysis we published last year
at Rocky Mountain
Institute ("Winning the Oil Endgame"), the cost of these changes would average $15 a
barrel. Even if, as the U.S. government forecasts, oil comes down in price by
2025 to $26 a barrel, the net saving in the United States would still be $70
billion a year, and the rest of the world would benefit proportionally.
Burgeoning economies like China and India have the most to lose from falling
into a U.S.-style oil trap, and the biggest opportunity to avoid it by making
their vehicles, buildings and factories efficient from scratch. Doubling oil efficiency wouldn't be hard.
A backlog of powerful ways to save and substitute for oil, amassed since the
1973 oil embargo, remains mostly untapped, even in the most energy-efficient
countries.
Automakers for instance could profitably increase fuel mileage to 66 mpg
(3.6L/100km) for light trucks and 92 mpg (2.6L/100km) for cars. Doing so would
cost an extra $2,550 for a midsize SUV, but would pay for itself in fuel
savings in two years in the United States and in one year in Europe. This would require
combining hybrid-electric propulsion with new lightweight steels or, in a few
years, carbon composite parts that absorb six to 12 times more crash energy per
kilogram. New manufacturing processes could then make cars big, protective and
comfortable with halved weight and fuel use at no extra cost. The U.S. military
could pioneer such ultralight, ultrastrong vehicles to modernize its forces. Modern aerodynamics,
tires, engines and materials can cheaply double or triple the efficiency of
18-wheel heavy trucks and jetliners, too. Boeing's new 787 consumes 20 percent
less fuel per passenger mile than its predecessor. Retooling the U.S. car, truck and plane
industries would require a $90 billion investment. That may sound like a lot, but spread over a
decade, it's worth about three weeks of U.S. oil imports a year. Other
countries' retooling would typically yield at least as handsome profits in both
money and security. Once the United States
has saved half its oil, it can cost-effectively replace an additional 20
percent with advanced biofuels, and the rest with saved natural gas. Biofuels
(based on woody, weedy plants—not corn) will need a $90 billion investment,
too, but they'll beat $26 oil, revitalize farming, protect topsoil better and
preserve food crops' land and water. Harvesting biofuel crops, carbon credits
and wind power all from the same land, much of it now unproductive, can also
double or triple net farm and ranch income. Again, details will differ in other
countries, but the opportunities are broadly similar—even in Japan, which lacks
the Great Plains but is 70 percent forested and could sustainably harvest both
fiber and biofuels there. Eliminating oil demand in the United
States would thus require a $180 billion investment, half for efficient
vehicles, half for advanced biofuels. By 2025, that would save $155 billion every year, create a million new jobs,
save a million current jobs and generate 26 percent less carbon emissions.
Benefits in Europe, Asia and Latin America are proportional or better. Even
oil-exporting countries could benefit: oil may well ultimately be worth more
for its hydrogen content than for its hydrocarbons. Mandates, subsidies
and taxes aren't needed to implement these changes. What's needed are smart
business strategies and enlightened government policies that remove barriers to
adopting new technology. The most important would be to offer
"feebates"— a charge on inefficient vehicles that would be rebated to
buyers of efficient ones, within each size class. Government would also play a
role in helping retool car plants, retrain workers, scrap gas-guzzler planes
and cars, and so forth. Customers would have more choices, workers more jobs,
everyone more profits. In only two generations, oil—once the foundation of our
strength but now a source of weakness—could become as obsolete as whale-oil
lamps. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8769620/site/newsweek/ Rocky Mountain
Institute http://www.rmi.org/ |
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