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Parents And Children...If you lose your job, your income goes down. No surprise
there. In fact, it turns out
that if you lose your job, your income is permanently
lowered. That's a little more surprising, but still plausible. But there's more: it turns out that
if you lose your job, your children have permanently lower incomes too. Via
Brad DeLong*:
Using a Canadian panel of administrative data
that follows almost 60,000 father-child pairs....we find that children whose
fathers were displaced have annual earnings about 9% lower than similar
children whose fathers did not experience an employment shock. They are also
more likely to receive unemployment insurance and social assistance.
Actually, the
results of this study were even worse than the summary indicates. The authors
used a large Canadian dataset to compare two comparable groups of families in
the year 1982.  Both groups of families had similar incomes
and worked in similar industries, and only children of similar age (12-14)
were included in the study. However, the fathers in the first group all lost
their jobs due to a plant closure, and as the chart shows, these fathers
experienced a sharp decline in income that they never fully made up.
The more surprising
result is that two decades later, the grown children of the two families had
substantially different incomes too. But the effects weren't evenly
distributed:
The displacement effects appear to be
concentrated among those families for whom father’s earnings are in the
lowest quartile. Among children in this group subsequent earnings are 17%
lower than they would have been if the father had not been displaced, and the
probability of social assistance and [unemployment insurance] receipt are 4
and 6 percentage points higher. In contrast, there is no evidence that there
is any intergenerational effect among families in the top two quartiles.
In other words,
children of families with above average incomes did fine. Children of
families with low incomes, however, were devastated by the plant closures: by
1999 their incomes were still 17% lower than similar children whose fathers
didn't lose their jobs.
You hear a lot of
talk from conservatives — mainly ones who want to find excuses not to fund
social programs — about the effect of traits like IQ on things like income
levels and the likelihood of receiving welfare. And it's true that there's a
correlation: children of low IQ parents tend to have lower incomes than
children of high IQ parents. However, the effect is nowhere near 17%. The
importance of studies like this, then, is to remind us that, especially at
low income levels, the effect of environmental catastrophes can be far higher
than the effect of heritable abilities. We can
do something about environment and it does
make a big difference. Many conservatives would like to pretend otherwise,
but the data doesn't back them up.
- Kevin Drum, Washington
Monthly 090605 http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/
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