Ouch, I'm sorry.

This for those who couldn't get into the WSJ.

Here is the complete story. Among the doom and gloom - a
little light!

Also, I've just heard there were only 13 incidents in
yesterday's Iraq election. As against 640 in the last one.
Don't know the casualties, but last time 42 died for daring
to vote.

Harry

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A SMALL VICTORY IN TAL AFAR, AS SUNNIS, SHIITES FORM
RECONCILIATION COMMITTEE COL. HICKEY'S RAMADAN FEAST

By GREG JAFFE 

Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL October 14, 2005;
Page A1


TAL AFAR, Iraq -- At an old British fort at the edge of town
here, about a dozen sheiks gathered at 6 p.m. last Friday
for a traditional Ramadan feast.

Some were Sunni. Some were Shiite. The results were
predictable for a region in which months of violence and
tit-for-tat assassinations and car bombs have created deep
sectarian divides. A Sunni complained that masked Shiite
informants were spreading lies about innocent Sunnis to
Americans. "We have to get rid of these people who wear
masks!" he yelled. The lead Shiite present stormed off to a
corner to sit by himself.

But the session had a surprising ending. The shouting gave
way to discussion, and the sheiks laid plans to form a local
reconciliation committee composed of six Sunni and six
Shiite representatives.

It was a small victory for the American military leader, Lt.
Col. Chris Hickey, who arranged for the feast with just such
a goal.

Col. Hickey commands a 1,000-soldier cavalry squadron in Tal
Afar that has taken heavy casualties over the past six
months in intense urban combat. While his primary missions
are to battle the brutal insurgency and rebuild a crumbling
infrastructure, the 41-year-old officer increasingly has
found himself in the role of peacemaker, trying to close
religious divides and prevent a civil war. The mission has
taken on a heightened urgency in advance of Saturday's
constitutional referendum, which many U.S. commanders fear
will only fuel the fire.

Col. Hickey and his commanders have developed a three-prong
strategy for mending the deep divisions in Tal Afar. One is
to convince Sunnis that the city's new government won't
oppress them. He is pushing to recruit Sunnis for the
government and the local police force. And he allows Sunni
sheiks small victories, like getting credit for the release
of prisoners. The second prong is to reassure Shiites of
their safety even as the Sunnis amass more power, sometimes
literally moving U.S. troops into the homes of Shiites who
say they have been threatened. The third is to try to make
peace between the two sects, as with the Ramadan feast.

Military commanders across Iraq are facing similar
challenges from internal Iraqi conflicts that had been
largely suppressed under Saddam Hussein. "Sectarian fault
lines in Iraq are inexorably pushing the country towards
civil war unless we actually intervene decisively to stem
it," warned one U.S. Army analysis, written in August and
distributed to some commanders in the northern part of the
country.

The religious feuds have turned especially violent in Tal
Afar. Bombs exploded on consecutive days this week, the
first in a Shiite market about 100 yards from Col. Hickey's
headquarters, the second at the very fort where the colonel
held his Ramadan feast. More than 60 civilians were killed.
The attacks were thought to have been orchestrated by Sunni
religious extremists, seeking to fan the sectarian hatred
and fear Col. Hickey is working hard to suppress.

Since last November, violence has led to hundreds of deaths
as this ethnically mixed city became a battlefield for
Islamic extremists, foreign fighters and Iraqi insurgents.
Last month, the U.S. intervened. About 8,000 U.S. and Iraqi
troops stormed Tal Afar, arresting over 800 suspected Sunni
insurgents and killing 300 more. Now, American and Iraqi
officials are working to rebuild the police force and the
city government. They are also spending $50 million to
rebuild Tal Afar's decrepit water, power and school systems.
But enough bad blood between Shiites and Sunnis remains to
keep ripping the city apart.

"Reconciliation is the key to this thing," says Col. H.R.
McMaster, the commander of all U.S. forces in northwestern
Iraq, including Tal Afar. "This insurgency depends on
sectarian tension to move and operate. Its goal is to create
a sense of resentment and victimology among all parties."

For Col. Hickey, fashioning some sort of peace between Tal
Afar's Shiites and Sunnis has become an often-frustrating
obsession. The former Army brat, in his second year-long
deployment to Iraq, lives with his staff in the ruins of a
400-year-old Ottoman Empire castle atop a hill in the center
of the city. They have no hot food and no showers. They lack
even portable toilets. Sitting in his dingy office, the
colonel often admits to being mystified by the anger and
resentment that have grown in the city.

"I often wonder, How did we get to this point?" he says
after an exhausting 17-hour work day. "The Shiites and the
Sunnis look the same. They speak the same language. Both of
them want the same things: security, safe schools, power and
water. I'm not sure I'll ever really understand."

LEADERSHIP STRUGGLE

The animosity dates to the seventh century, when a
leadership struggle following the death of the Prophet
Muhammad led to a schism in Islam. In Iraq, the Shiites make
up about 65% of the population. They were brutally oppressed
under Saddam Hussein, while the Sunnis, who account for
about 20% of the population, were favored.

Lt. Col. Chris Hickey (in sunglasses) and an Iraqi police
officer walk amid the rubble of a Shiite marketplace in Tal
Afar, Iraq, after a car bomb exploded, killing 40 people.

In Tal Afar, near the Syrian border, the proportions are
reversed: It's about 70% Sunni, 25% Shiite. Before the U.S.
invasion in 2003, the two groups lived largely in peace.
Intermarriage was common. Many neighborhoods were mixed.

The peace broke after the U.S. reduced the size of its force
in the city in February 2004 to about 500 troops from 3,000.
Problems between Sunnis and Shiites began almost
immediately.

After the U.S. invasion the Shiite political parties began
to amass power in Baghdad. They also started to organize and
recruit Shiites in Tal Afar. Sunni areas of Tal Afar -- home
to many of the city's former elites -- coursed with fears of
"sinister attempts" by the Shiites to take over the city and
drive out the Sunnis, according to the Army analysis.

"The Sunni have begun to articulate the view that a Baghdad-
directed and Iranian-supported conspiracy is planning to
take over the city," the analysis stated. Iran, a
traditional enemy of Iraq, is predominantly Shiite.

Believing themselves to be under siege, the Sunnis invited
religious extremists from Mosul and Syria to help them
battle the Shiites, the Army analysis said. By late 2004,
Abu Musab Zarqawi's group was in the city, launching
horrific attacks on Shiites. Sunni extremists organized into
eight cells, each containing several hundred fighters. The
cells were broken into various smaller groups focusing on
kidnapping, assassinations, propaganda and religious
education.

In May 2005, not long after he arrived in the city, Col.
Hickey sat in on the interrogation of a 17-year-old member
of a Sunni assassination cell. Under questioning, the boy
explained that his job was to hold the legs of the victim
while someone else lopped off the head. When the
interrogator asked the boy what he aspired to, "he responded
that he wanted to be the guy who got to cut off the head,"
Col. Hickey recalls. "It was chilling."

The Shiites responded to Sunni attacks by taking over the
police force, transforming it into tribal militia bent on
revenge against the Sunnis. "The police force essentially
became a death squad, which magnified the problem," Col.
Hickey says. Schools and shops closed, and the city quickly
fell into chaos.

Last month's U.S.-led assault on the city appears to have
driven the worst of the Islamic radicals out of the city.
But Col. Hickey knows that if he can't get the Sunnis and
Shiites to put aside their differences, the radicals will be
back.

A top priority is winning the confidence of the Sunnis. Col.
Hickey and his immediate commander, Col. McMaster, have
pressured the Iraqi government to bring in a new mayor and
police chief from nearby Mosul. Both are Sunnis. About 200
Sunni police officers, also from Mosul, were dispatched to
the city.

The police force is still more Shiite than the city overall,
and to get the demographics in line, Col. Hickey now is
lobbying the Sunni sheiks inside Tal Afar to provide 1,000
Sunnis to join. It has been slow going, with only about 220
signing up.

"What I really need is Sunnis passing the message to
Sunnis," Col. Hickey says. To that end his regiment is
laying plans to train Iraqi Army officers in Tal Afar to
spread the word of the changes in the city as they walk foot
patrols.

And the colonel is also courting powerful Sunni sheiks, many
of whom supported the extremists. Recently U.S. forces in
Tal Afar infuriated many conservative Sunnis by arresting a
woman with close ties to the insurgency. After a few days
Col. Hickey and Col. McMaster decided they had to set her
free -- but instead of just releasing her into the city,
Col. Hickey turned her over to a powerful Sunni sheik so he
could say that he had convinced the Americans to give her
up.

"Most of the Sunnis in town don't support the radical
extremists," he says. "They are terrified of them and
realize they made a mistake. But for them, working with the
coalition is admitting weakness and defeat."

BIG WORRIES

As he courts the Sunnis, Col. Hickey knows he must take care
not to lose the Shiites. One of his biggest worries is that
horrific attacks like this week's suicide bombings -- which
make three in seven days targeting Shiites or Iraqi Security
Forces -- will spur the Shiites to take revenge. To calm
them, U.S. and Iraqi Army forces mount regular patrols in
their neighborhoods. Most U.S. troops live on large bases
away from major cities, but Col. Hickey's troops are
scattered throughout Tal Afar. When Shiites report being
harassed by Sunnis, he offers to send a platoon of soldiers
to set up a temporary base in their home for two or three
days.

"I know living in the city is draining for my guys," he
says. "You are in the fight all the time. You don't have the
down time you get when you can go back to a base. But I
really believe our daily presence is changing the city."

And then there are the efforts to get the two groups
actually talking to each other. Col. Hickey was racking his
brain to come up with a dramatic event to bring together
Shiite and Sunni leaders. The Muslim holy month of Ramadan,
which began last week, looked like the perfect opportunity.

During Ramadan, Muslims fast during daylight hours and
typically hold a big feast after sundown. If he could get
the sheiks to attend a Ramadan feast on neutral ground, Col.
Hickey figured, he might make some headway.

"Respect and personal relationships are everything in this
culture," he said, shortly after hitting on the idea. "I am
hoping I can use the backdrop of their religious holiday to
get them to start building some kind of relationship."

After consulting the new police chief, a Sunni who is seen
by both sides as relatively impartial, he decided to invite
a group of sheiks to a dinner at the 1920s-era British fort.
For his Ramadan feast to work, he knew there were two sheiks
he really needed to have there: Shiite Sheik Wali Ali Retha
and Sunni Sheik Falah al Farhat.

Sheik Wali's tribe had suffered more than any other at the
hands of Sunni insurgents, and seemed the most bent on
revenge. Indeed, just last week Col. Hickey intercepted a
confidential planning document written by the sheik that
decried the failure of local security forces to safeguard
Shiites, and called on the Shiites to form armed teams and
take the fight to the Sunni terrorists.

Col. Hickey quickly confronted the Shiite leader. "If I see
any armed teams in Tal Afar I will crush them," he warned.
The sheik listened quietly and then asked for his document
back. Col. Hickey stared at him in disbelief. "I am not
giving it back. You need to write a new document," he said.
"If you do this, you will fail."

Col. Hickey then softened his harsh tone and touched Sheik
Wali on the arm. "You and I have worked together for many
months. We both lost good men," he said. "I don't want to
end on a bad note. How about tomorrow night I invite you to
a dinner in honor of Ramadan?"

At first, the sheik declined, arguing that to get to the
dinner he would have to pass through Sunni neighborhoods.

"I am honored, but it is too dangerous," he said. Col.
Hickey offered to drive him to the dinner in his armored
Bradley fighting vehicle. But the sheik countered that if he
rode with the Americans, his fellow tribal leaders would
mock him.

"Why don't you just come to dinner at my house as my
personal guest," asked Sheik Wali, who seemed to be missing
the point of what Col. Hickey had told him would be a
Sunni/Shiite event.

Finally they agreed that Sheik Wali would ride in his own
car, surrounded by U.S. fighting vehicles. The sheik meekly
asked if he could carry a weapon in his car. Pointing to the
turret of his Bradley, Col. Hickey told him he didn't need
one. "I've got plenty of weapons," he said.

Col. Hickey asked the police chief, Gen. Aziz Ali Hussein,
to invite the Sunni Sheik Falah for him. Most Americans
suspect Sheik Falah aided the insurgency in Tal Afar. He
spent five months in Abu Ghraib prison earlier in the year.
But to Col. Hickey, the sheik's support for the insurgents
seemed more coerced than voluntary. If Iraqi and U.S.
security forces could guarantee his security against Sunni
extremist reprisals and Shiites bent on revenge, Col. Hickey
believed he might put pressure on the extremists in his
tribe to drop their fight.

The day of the dinner, Col. Hickey called Sheik Falah to
make sure he was coming and to ask for a favor. A car bomb
had detonated in a Shiite part of town, wounding five
civilians. Shortly after it exploded, a Sunni mosque near
the neighborhood broadcast messages designed to inflame the
crowd that had formed. Col. Hickey wanted the loudspeakers
shut off.

The sheik agreed to talk to the head of the mosque and get
him to turn off the calls to jihad. Then he asked for a
favor in return.

"On Ramadan it is tradition that you give me a gift," Sheik
Falah said. He asked Col. Hickey to release some of the
members of his tribe who had been arrested during the big
U.S. offensive on the city in September. Col. Hickey said he
would try, and brought to the dinner a list of 10 Sunni
prisoners the U.S. plans to release.

'A LOW PROFILE'

The feast began just after sunset. The sheiks all took seats
on couches arranged in a U shape. As a non-Muslim, Col.
Hickey was leery about playing too big a role. "I want to
keep a low profile and let them talk, eat and socialize," he
said earlier that day. So to jump-start the conversation,
Col. Hickey asked Gen. Hussein, who had been invited along
with the mayor, to make a short speech.

The police chief, a bear of a man with the broad, flat face
of a prize fighter, immediately began chastising the sheiks.
"When I heard what was happening in Tal Afar I couldn't
believe it," he yelled. "We are the oldest civilization in
the world. For us to behave this way is shameful."

Then in gory detail he described the scene a week earlier
when a woman, standing in a crowd in a Shiite neighborhood
of Tal Afar, blew up herself and a 3-year-old girl she was
holding by the hand. "I wish Col. Hickey had brought the
photos to show you," the chief said. "This has nothing to do
with religion. It has nothing to do with Islam."

When he finished, the sheiks sat quietly on their couches,
but soon the screaming and finger-pointing started. Col.
Hickey sat in the background and watched. Occasionally he
nudged his Sudanese-American translator and asked him what
the Iraqis were saying. At a couple of points during the
confusing cross-talk and yelling, the translator answered
simply, "It is hard to tell."

When a Sunni suggested that masked Shiite informants caused
the tensions in the city by tricking Americans into
arresting innocent Sunnis, Sheik Wali stormed off to a
corner of the room to sit by himself.

Eventually a Sunni sheik took Sheik Wali by the arm and led
him to the couch, sitting the small, skinny former farmer
next to the more refined Sheik Falah. The two men fidgeted
awkwardly, not making eye contact. But the screaming in the
room began to die down and discussions about a
reconciliation commission began. The group had its first
meeting three days after the dinner.

Col. Hickey, knowing the progress made that night was
fragile, will keep pushing. As the dinner broke up, he said
he'd host a second Ramadan feast tonight, the eve of
tomorrow's constitutional referendum. "Let's kill some goats
next Friday," he offered. "I'll buy them if you slaughter
and cook them."

Write to Greg Jaffe at [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Copyright C 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 

All Rights Reserved

 
********************************
Henry George School of Social Science
of Los Angeles
Box 655  Tujunga  CA 91042
818 352-4141
********************************
 
 
-----Original Message-----
From: M.Blackmore [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Friday, October 14, 2005 2:42 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: [Futurework] A giant Leap

Subscriber only. Wozzit about?

On Fri, 2005-10-14 at 11:32 -0700, Harry Pollard wrote:
> Hi!
> 
>  
> 
> I liked this from the Wall St. Journal.
> 
>  
> 
>
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112925326708268413.html?mod=
djemTMB

> 

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