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Draft of pandemic flu plan predicts huge impact By Nedra Pickler and
Lauran Neergaard, The Associated
Press, Tues. May 2, 2006 WASHINGTON — The
government forecasts massive disruptions if bird flu or some other super-strain
of influenza arises, with as much as 40%
of the national work force off the job, but it doesn't foresee closing U.S.
borders to fight the spread, according to a draft of the national response plan
obtained Monday by The Associated Press. An outbreak could lead
the government to limit international flights, quarantine exposed travelers and
otherwise restrict movement in and around the country. But a shutdown of the
border would not be likely, nor would it do more than slow the pandemic's
spread by a few weeks, according to the plan that is being finalized by
administration officials for release Wednesday at the White House. "While we will
consider all options to limit the spread of a pandemic virus, we recognize
complete border closure would be difficult to enforce, present foreign-affairs
complications and have significant negative social and economic
consequences," the 228-page draft report says. A pandemic can strike
when the influenza virus mutates to a strain that people have never
experienced, something that has happened three times in the past century. The government is preparing for a
worst-case scenario of up to 2 million deaths in the United States. It's impossible to
predict when the next pandemic will strike, or how great its toll might be. But
concern is rising that the H5N1 strain of bird flu might lead to one if it
mutates to a form that can be spread easily from person to person. So far, H5N1
has infected more than 200 people since 2003, killing about half of them.
Virtually all the victims caught it from close contact with infected poultry or
droppings. The plan says preparedness for a pandemic could take
years, so
significant steps must be taken immediately across all levels of government and
the private sector to protect national security, the economy and the basic functioning
of society. The report aims to energize the private
sector, noting that 85% of the systems that are vital to society, such as food
production, medicine and financial services, are privately run. "While a pandemic
will not damage power lines, banks or computer networks, it has the potential
ultimately to threaten all critical infrastructure by its impact on an
organization's human
resources
by removing essential personnel from the workplace for weeks or months,"
the report says. Not only would sick workers stay home, but so would anyone caring for ill family
members,
under quarantine because of possible exposure to the flu or taking care of
children when schools shut down. Included in the
report's advice for employers: Have workers remain at least three feet apart or otherwise limit face-to-face contact to limit the flu's spread, including by
working from home or substituting teleconferences for office meetings. The report envisions
possible breakdowns in public order and says governors might deploy National
Guard troops or request federal troops to maintain order. Last fall, President
Bush announced a $7.1 billion strategy to fight the next flu pandemic, focusing
largely on public-health preparations — including plans to stockpile enough
bird-flu vaccine for 20 million people and anti-flu drugs for 81 million. So
far, the stockpile contains enough vaccine for 4 million people and medication
for 5 million. This new report is
Step 2, outlining how every branch of government would have to work together
with federal health officials to try to contain a pandemic and minimize its
damage. By early next month, government agencies are to release specific steps
they plan. The report attempts to
settle any turf battle within the administration, saying the Department of
Health and Human Services would lead the government's interagency response
effort and the Department of Homeland Security would have a secondary role to
assist with the health response and non-medical support. If a pandemic begins
abroad, federal health officials are guaranteed to take certain initial steps,
such as screening travelers arriving from affected areas and putting the
possibly infected into quarantine. Ship and plane captains already are required
to report certain on-board illnesses upon arrival. With no border
restrictions, pandemic influenza would arrive in the United States within two
months of an outbreak abroad, the document estimates. But models of influenza's spread suggest
that sealing the U.S. border would not only be impractical — 1.1 million people cross the nation's
317 official ports of entry daily — but would delay the inevitable by only a few weeks, it says. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002966012_fluplan02.html |
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